Today target of 100$ meet with good 320$… I am OK… with it… if I trade today it will be very small lots to save my 100$…
Only trade looking this session is if today’s hih taken out in EUR/AUD… for small 10-15 pips…No short trade for these pair untill bullish scenerio change.
guys, do any of you see this OTE on the 4 hour chart of GBP/USD? Confluence of the 1.6400 mark, R2 of daily pivot (yellow/orange dotted line), and OTE. Is this a mega short opportunity or am i missing something…? (fib was drawn from august 7 high to august 10 low)
Hmm, could be because of time zones and broker differences? 
Indicator is drawing the lines perfectly! Thank you so much PipBit! Greatly appreciated, and fast too! Was surprised! 
Regards,
Clark
Where can I find this indicator?
I downloaded som pivots but what’s the difference between;
Pivot Points Macro
Pivot Points ( daily shifted)
Where do i turn on the mid pivots, so they too come out?
I want to start this post by thanking ICT for the continued education. So thank you, Michael.
Personally, I love the concept of the trader’s trinity revealed in last night’s webinar. I love it so much, in fact, that I was too anxious to use it and took a 30 pip loss today taking a setup that was only there in my imagination. Oh well.
I’ve realized now that I really need to regulate exactly how I go about my analysis. While I find joy even in the losing, I’d rather not lose, so I’ve tried to come up with a strict routine to follow in exactly the prescribed order.
I’d like to see what my fellow traders think of it, if I’ve missed anything, or if there should be any other revisions.
Also know that this is so far untested, it’s just a rough draft and is my attempt at trying to make a cohesive whole of all of the tools ICT has presented here.
Based on what ICT has revealed so far, I’ve split the routine for analysis into two parts, determining daily bias, and then finding triggers. This analysis assumes the chart has already been marked with all of the following, they can obviously be removed/added as needed for the sake of clarity.
- Daily Pivots
- Monthly/Weekly Pivots
- Key support/resistance (I see key support/resistance as intermediate and long term highs/lows, is there s omething else I should be looking for?)
- The Trader’s Trinity Institutional concept levels.
Note that this is based around trading the New York Open, trading the London Open isn’t practical for me as of the end of this month, so I won’t focus on it, though I don’t imagine the steps would need to be too different, if at all.
[B][U]Bias[/U][/B]
Determining the daily bias comes first, and these are the steps I have identified:
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[B]Note the Market Flows[/B], I use the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour market flows.
[I]The bias for this section is decided by the agreement of at least two of the three flows. I imagine this should be noted also after a break of any high/low, if a trade hasn’t already been placed, not just at the beginning of the day.[/I] -
[B]LO swing[/B]. Commonly there is a swing high or low between 2AM and 7AM EST, note this swing and any OTE’s that originate from the top/bottom of this swing. If there is such a swing there is a high probability that the daily bias will be in the opposite dire ction of the original swing. For example, if there is a large up-swing at 3AM EST, at the London Open, then it’s probable that the day will be a bearish day.
3.[B] Market Structure[/B] such as long/intermediate/short term highs and lows can help suggest higher or lower prices. This is an area where I falter personally. I would say that after today’s bullish day for the fiber it has reached an intermediate term high. I would expect there to be a bearish move to create a short-term low before any upward movement would continue as the fiber is currently in consolidation after the london close today. This short term low could happen as soon as the Asian session tonight, though I expect it would be more likely to occur in the London or New York sessions tomorrow.
About bias: Having noted the bias for each of these three technical aspects of the market, the daily bias would be with whichever appears at least 2 out of 3 times.
[B][U]Triggers[/U][/B]
The second part of my analysis would be looking for a trigger to get into the market, with a plan on how to get out as well.
There is a greater mix of triggers, but a confluence of at least three (Should it be more?) of these with a trade direction that lines up with the daily bias is what is desired. The first three triggers are the most important, as they are the only ones which can deny a trade.
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[B]Optimal Trade Entry[/B]. If the price is not in an OTE zone, [B]do not trade[/B]. Also, if the price is in an OTE zone for a trade which does not line up with the determined bias, [B]do not trade[/B]. Optimal Trade Entry being anywhere between .618 and .79 retracement levels. If the price is in an OTE zone which lines up with the daily bias, then it acts as a trigger. Meaning, in a bullish day, that the price is in the .618 to .79 retracement area sweetspot, (I usually give slight allowances past the .79, but not usually too much before the .618) from a previous high, it lines up with the daily bias. If its a retracement from a low, it does not line up with the daily bias of a bullish day.
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[B]Near Support/Resistance[/B]. If the price is not reacting to support or resistance of some kind (trader’s trinity, pivot level, key support/resistance), [B]do not trade[/B]. The price retracement should have occured off of a bounce from a support or resistance level and/or the OTE zone should be on a support/resistance level. If one or both of these conditions are true, this is another trigger.
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[B]Trader’s Trinity[/B]. Revealed in last night’s webinar, there are three zones revealed by a trick which reveals more institutional levels. There is a central “Fair Value” zone, a buy zone underneath, and a sell zone above. If the price is inside of the fair value zone, [U]do not trade[/U]. Although according to ICT a trade can be entered in this zone in the presence of a strong higher time-frame trend, I personally will avoid making any trades within this zone. If a short trade is lining up in the sell zone above the FVZ (fair value zone), then this acts as a trigger, and vice versa for a long trade.
[I]Also note that the levels in the trader’s trinity also act as support and resistance.[/I] -
[B]Is there an OTE within an OTE?[/B] What I mean here is that if the price is in an optimal trade entry zone, and that optimal trade entry zone is within an OTE from a higher timeframe, this is a confluence of events, and serves to act as a trigger.
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[B]Open Interest[/B] For killer trades, a sudden drop in open interest has a high probability of leading to an upward move of a few hundred pips. If one is looking to go long, and there was a recent sharp drop in OI, this acts as a trigger. (Is the opposite true for sharp rises in open interest? Would a sharp rise in OI be a trigger for a short? I’m not sure).
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[B]Commitment of Traders[/B]. In this case, we look at the commercial hedgers. If they are at multi month, or in some cases, multi-year extreme in their longs or shorts, and that extreme lines up with the daily bias, this acts as a trigger.
7.[B]Smart Money Tool[/B]. When trading the fiber and cable, the two currencies have a correlation. If one is making higher highs, and the other fails, and the same with lower lows, there is a divergence. If the predicted movement of this divergence lines up with the determined bias, this acts as a trigger. This must happen near support/resistance in order to be a valid trigger. I’m having a hard time understanding how to determine whether a divergence is bullish or bearish, however.
[B]Daily Pivots[/B]. If the price is in the proper sell or buy zone to line up with the trade and bias, it acts as a trigger.
[B]Weekly Pivots[/B]. The same as the daily pivots.
[B]Monthly Pivots[/B]. The same as the daily pivots.
So far, that is what I am going to rigidly follow starting with my next trading session. However, I have a few questions in there, so I’ll bring them down here for the TL;DR
How do I determine whether a SMT divergence is bullish/bearish?
Are “Key” support and resistance levels anything other than pivots/trader trinity levels, and intermediate or long term highs and lows?
Is my understanding of market structure correct?
Should I require more than three of the triggers to enter a trade?
Have I missed anything presented so far?
Thanks for reading 
Nice notes Casey! I like how organized they are, I will be taking a closer look when I have time and will make something similar of my own as well!
SMT divergence on the Fiber at NYO?
ICT comrades,
Michael posted a tweet this morning about SMT divergence (buy) on the Fiber at the NYO.
Looking at the SMT tool, I’m not seeing divergence at comparable lows at or just before 7 am EST
on the 5, 15 or 30 minute charts. Would someone post a chart showing an SMT buy divergence
at NYO today? What time period should I be looking at in the kill zones?
Look at M30 or H1 chart, candle open 7 am EST. The local lows (fractals), there is SMT divergence. I took the same trade.
Good to see you back contributing Manta.
It’s a pleasure, Clark. Glad it worked for you.
I’d like to help but sadly I don’t fully understand them, I got my pivot macros from the first post of this thread, I believe. In specific: PivotDailyMacro and ICT_Pivot_Macro.
At present, I’ve got PivotDailyMacro on my chart here, which seems to work handily enough.
So I fuss around with the Android Market and find a free app that goes off at certain levels. After a bit of fuss and headscratching, I manage to key in an alarm for GBPUSD for above 1.64 and below 1.62. One glass of cabernet later I am happily asleep.
Well, I must confess to sleeping in a bit… and then I am awakened by this awful sharp noise. What? Logically, I ignore it and hope it goes away. Then, there it is again. And again. And again, again, again, again, again. Such a thing Won’t Be Tolerated For Long in this house, certainly, so I open one eye, and see it’s the app. 1.64 was breached. I sleepwalk over to the computer, take a blurry look at things and notice there was a comparable peak like this on the 9th. Hmm. Three months ago, shorting against such an obvious run~up would have induced sheer terror. Not now. So I short it and go back to sleep.
It’s a bit iffy, insofar as asian session has bobbed back and forth for a while now, I’m in ‘profit’ territory at the moment but all I can think of is how much damage I’ve done to my odds by exiting trades for small gains. So… I’m in. Not liking a long sit~through of the asian session to be possibly stopped out by London Open, but, let’s see if price gets back around 1.63 mmm?
We shall see… arches fingers
Also, a thank you to Manta and PipBit, I’ve got a rather nifty market flow table in the corner of my chart now, and Trinity lines ^^
Getting to be a rather busy chart, but I must confess to like rather busy charts. Strangely comforting somehow, as if I knew what I was doing (the jury is still out on that bit).
CaseyAR good post dude, I like lists :59:
I have a large whiteboard in front of my trading station that looks a bit like your post.
I think you’ve a sound grasp of what’s going on, I’ll address one of your questions regarding Key levels. Did you mention the institutional levels of xx00, xx20,xx50 and xx80, these are often levels of interest and can be S/R especially if they are confluent with other S/R? Also remember to switch between GMT and EST for your pivot settings to see which one is being taken more notice of. As a very general rule I would suggest GMT pivots for Monday and London open and you might notice EST later in the day but just have a quick look. If GMT and EST pivots are coincident they become quite strong S/R.
It may go without saying but in your triggers identify the “Kill Zone” as they have differing characteristics and trading inside them is a great edge for catching the big boys coat tails and discipline in general.
Yeah, trading became a bit boring with ICT tools and I feel a bit lonely, so I decided to give Babypips one more chance 
Everything looks perfect…
Follow trend… OR wait for reversal if you are playing counter trend.
Also, there is a co-relation between SP500 also, if SP500 is bullish, it means USD bearish and EUR, AUD, normally ride…
seniors please correct me if I am wrong, I feel strong co-relation between SP500(futures) and USD
Thanks
coolkaps
I saw the divergence, but couldn’t work out (as usual) whether it meant there would be a reversal, or continuation.
How did you decide on continuation?
I have a question. Do you think the optimal trading entry (ote) will work for the more than 5 years or so? I mean, since this trading strategy is too good to be true, once everybody realize the entry points as the crowd gets bigger and bigger, I believe the market maker will utilize the crowd’s behavior to trick them, to get the dumb money’s back.
Historically, I believe, 50% of the movement and retracement was the best entry(sorry, if I’m wrong but I’m saying way past behavior), and then the market maker thought they could utilize the point to trick people by using 61.8 (38.2), a little beyond the 50% but not too much. And NOW, I believe the 61.8 (38.2) fib. has become so famous for dumb money to get their entry, so then smart money use that level to trick the market and made 78.6 (23.6) or 86.
So, do you think there is the end of OTE? If so, when will that be? If that is too far future, I shouldn’t consider this, or should I?
Does anyone know if there is a word limit on each post. I know that there is an image limit, but how about length? It just won’t let me post what I want to post. Grrrr! (for the upteenth time)