What did he say about using it monthly? Please share.
Ali,
if the commercials are āexpecting vastly higher pricesā, wouldnāt it also be in their best interest to buy a few extra lots and sell them tomorrow at inflated prices? I canāt imagine banks are only hedging the orders they have right now. What about the orders they expect to get tomorrow? Just some food for thought. I would expect the large banks to exploit every way possible to make a few extra bucks.
Itās not just banks. For example, BHP earns about 60 billion dollars a year, and you can bet a lot of that is hedged.
There is no ideal, been there done thatā¦lol.
You sound like youāve got it, some times will suit some zones better than others.
The ShiftHrs = 0 is Your servers time midnight or start of the new day and ShiftHrs = -4 is Your servers time midnight minus 4 hours. This is the tricky part, working out your platforms time compared to London and/or NY and adjusting for that to get London midnight (GMT) or NY midnight (EST) pivots, youāll just have to sit down with a piece of paper and pen and work it out Iām afraid.
Wally
Tonightās gonna be interesting to watch.
Cableās been buying the dips so far this week, and it has reached the previous weekās high. A level that has been rejected four times already (July 29, Aug 5, Aug 8 and Aug 16).
Regarding market profile weāre in the sell zone, and the same goes for the daily pivots. It would be nice to see price trade back up to the 1.6450 - 1.6450 OTE area and then rally to the fair value area.
Iām posting this as a practise, since so far Iāve been following only market flow, direction, and somehow I donāt get to match this market profile concept with the view I already had of things. Not that this is something bad, Iām trying to learn.
If you have some comments let me know 
Looks like weāve got ourselves a long night, looking for the same setupsā¦
Although market flow is bullish on all 3 TFās on the GU, I think the resistance level may look to hold.
Iāve been caught quite a few times but I think I know what to look for now, the Traderās Trinity tool, may be a life saver tonight! 
Edit: Spoke too fast, I forgot to mention, the EU is bearish on both the 4H and 1H, itās in the sell zone based on Traderās Trinity and Pivots. A few levels of confluence as well now I look at it. I guess it will be interesting to see what happens!
Regards,
Clark
Itās also last years high and there was a SMT divergence suggesting that there will be a bearish move 
Iām already in, OTE in NYC yesterday and +40 pips so far, looking for ADR Low today
I was thinking the same thing so here u are
TradersTrinity_Monthly.ex4
Very interesting.
Wally
TradersTrinity_Monthly.zip (4.17 KB)
I just copied and pasted the below from my notes - hope that helpsā¦
US Bond Yields: Daily TF:
2 year, 5 year & 10 year line chart.
Look for failure swings to provide clues to the future direction of the US$.
- If yields are dropping, and one of the yields fails to make a lower lower, then we look for the US$ to bounce up.
- If yields are rising and one of the three yields fails to make a higher high, we look for the US$ to bounce.
Nb: howeverā¦ this seems (needs further investigation) slightly laggingā¦??? need to checkā¦
Divergence Btwn Bond Yields And Consequent Moves In USD Index and EU and GU:
Longer term bonds failing to make new highs on: 16 Feb 2011 & 11th April:
ā¦ so just look at daily TF yields for daily swing highs/lowsā¦ higher TF market structure.
Bond Yields:
USD Index: 16 Feb 2011 & 11th April:
EU - the main constituent of the USD index:
Soā¦ i think its used for catching higher TF signif highs/lowsā¦
Hope this helps.
Autodidactā¦
ps: my pending short order on the GU was just missed and then of course everything starts droppingā¦ bummerā¦ See the EU go!!
Regarding the GU, Iād like to see the London Session spike the price to 1.6480 - 1.6485, taking out ALL those stops above 1.6475 ā and then head south.
I think thatās the most likely scenario, and Iād say a bit higher since probably price has already printed the daily low with those pin bars that have taken out the stops of the asian session low, and ADR should be completed around the 1.6530 area, but weāll see.
We have 4 U.K. news releases to get past at 4:30am (New York time) ā 2 of them major, unemployment claims, and the Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes.
If thereās a perceived bullish bias (on balance) to those releases, the heavy hitters should be able to goose this thing toward my target (1.6485), or even your target (1.6530), although I think your target is a bit ambitious.
Fair enough, as a target I actually have 1.6473 in my order, not going too ambitious with the levels weāre facing above. But if the dayās low is already printed, we could easily see 1.6530 as weād be getting close to Mayās high at 1.6546.
Canāt argue with your logic. Good luck this morning.
No need to, good luck to you too.
Learned something rather āpainfulā just nowā¦ oh I am happy this is a demo account.
Iām sitting there shorting GBPUSD, and had about a 10 pip stoploss at the timeā¦ when I at last see the price fall like a rock. Suddenly my stoploss triggers. What!? Price never went up anywhere near 10 pips that I could see, and I was watching it very closely, I admit. Embarrassing perhaps, but I was.
I looked over at the spread by chanceā¦ and it was suddenly 30 pips. A minute later itās down to 7.5, and as I write this, just 4. This is on an Oanda demo account. Most Iād ever noticed on their spreads page was about 20ā¦ and I had foolishly assumed those had something to do with the news.
Overall, still an okay profitable day, butā¦ ouch. I feel like Iāve snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory.
May other new people learn from my mistake. Though other than that spreadās sudden change, it was not a mistake. I guess itās important to learn that brokers do thatā¦ this really seems to complicate stoploss management and Iām not quite sure what to do about it, other than leave huge stoplosses all the timeā¦ which makes a mess of risk management.
Thatās pretty extreme.
Hereās a tick chart of a live FXCM account, showing the ASK (pink line) and the BID (blue line) just prior to the U.K. news releases at 4:30am (New York time).
As noted on the chart, the maximum spread during this event was a little over 16 pips ā this time.
Iāve seen the spread widen momentarily to more than this in the past, but I donāt recall a 30-pip spread.
That being said, a 10-pip stop on the GU is extremely tight ā just begging to be picked off ā even in normal
(non-news) times.
Yes gladly ā¦ but it looks like Wally beat me to it!!!
On another topic, one area I have not yet digested is the SMT divergence.
I had understood that there is divergence when one currency makes a lower low (or higher high) and the other does not.
However looking at the chart Manta posted and Mantaās comments (page 315, post 3142 - thanks, Manta!) it seems that ālower lowā does not mean lower low with respect to the preceding candle as I had thought. It means lower low with respect to the preceding fractal.
According to my current understanding, When a lower low is made with respect to the preceding fractal, this means that market flow changes to down if it was previously up.
Therefore, another way of looking at divergence could be a time when two currencies have different market flows.
Following this train of thought I wrote an indicator that plots the market flow of two currencies. If anyone wants to play with it, here it is:
MarketFlowDivergence.zip (5.53 KB)
It shows market flow up as green, market flow down as red. By default it is set to EURUSD (top), GBPUSD (bottom) and 30 minutes as that was the timeframe used on Mantaās chart. You can change the currencies, and you can change the time by changing the TimePeriod value to 5 (for 5 minutes), 15 (15 minutes), 60 (1 hr), 240 (4hr), 1440 (day).
(Note that like all indicators it will give slightly different results in hindsight than in real time because in hindsight we are dealing with fully formed candles whereas in real time the candles are forming and may not yet have breached fractals that they later breach.)
The indicator does show the fiberās market flow changing to down (red) during the period shown on Mantaās chart (round about 7am EST on August 15th) while the cableās market flow remains up.
However I still havenāt grasped why this divergence indicates an upward move in the fiber.
I notice that the cable went into a period of downward market flow slightly earlier (round about 3am EST) and then reverted to up. Do we expect an upward movement to follow on the fiber because thatās what the cable did earlier?
Or do we expect an upward move on the fiber because although it is down at the moment, the cable is still up and we expect the fiber to rejoin the cable shortly?
Autodidact,
Thanks for digging into your notes. Iāve just realised that the chart you show displays rates of change rather than absolute rates for yields, and I wonder whether this hides the failure swings?
Secondly, if I take the rules you sketch out here and make them explicit, like so:
IF
yields are falling
ANDIF
one yield fails to make a lower low
THEN
GBP/USD will fall //(USD will rise)
ORIF
yields are rising
ANDIF
one yield fails to make a higher high
THEN
GBP/USD will rise //(USD will fall)
ENDIF
I donāt see much support for the rule, possibly because the data is hard to read if it is in its raw form. This is a tough one, isnāt it?
Many thanks for the hard work, and in particular for adding the zip file! I was having trouble with the first download, but itās all good now:)
As an aside, I am loving this strength in the Cableā¦it has taken out the clean highs that I thought it would on Aug 1st and Aug 8th, and has now cleared out the stops above the May 27th/30th highs. The likelihood of it challenging the April highs get better with each passing day 