Hi everyone,
I am very new to trading, and have been working my way through the school of pipsology, and Michaels’s videos in the first post of this thread. I have been demo trading for a couple of weeks using a small realistic account size, and have made some small profits in my demo account. I have grown my demo account by about 2.5% in two weeks using ICT principles.
I think I’m ready to start live trading with a small amount of real money. I will implement a risk management policy of not risking more than 1% of my account per trade, and will keep my leverage as low as possible, probably 10:1.
I have applied for a real account with Oanda/fxtrade and will be using there MT4 platform. I am just waiting on them to approve my account and verify all of my documents.
In preparation for going live, I have done a top down analysis on the EUR/USD. I would like to get some feedback from the experienced traders in the group to see if they agree with my analysis.
Here are my thoughts on the EUR/USD:
The US Dollar index is trending upwards, it’s continuing to make higher highs. This is bearish for the EUR/USD.
On the Commitment of Traders report, the large commercial traders are getting close to an extreme high on the long side. This could be an indication that the EUR/USD trend could be turning bullish soon.
Open interest on the Dec Euro FX futures contract is high and holding steady. A sudden drop in open interest would be a signal that the trend is about to turn.
Not sure what to make of the bond yields. The 2 year yield is making higher highs, the 5 year yield is range bound and not making higher highs or lower lows, and the 10 year yield is making lower lows. There is clearly a divergence between the 2 year and the 10 year yields, but I am not sure if it is bullish or bearish for the EUR/USD.
Williams percent R (14 period) on the daily chart for the EUR/USD is low, indicating an oversold condition. This combined with the commercial traders large long positions is another indication that we are getting close to a long term low in the EUR/USD.
There is no backwardation in the Euro FX futures contract. The March contract is priced higher than the December contract. This is normal, if it were reversed it would be bullish for the EUR/USD. Since it is normal I would consider it neither bearish nor bullish for the EUR/USD.
Market flow on the Daily, 4 HR, and 1 HR charts are all indicating that we are still in a downward trend.
Based on the fact that the USD index is still trending up, and the market flow of the EUR/USD is down, I would say that for the near term the EUR/USD will continue to trend downwards, so I will be looking for short trades.
However, based on the position of the large commercial traders, and the oversold Williams % R indications, I expect that we could be nearing a long term low in the EUR/USD. I will be monitoring open interest in the Euro FX futures contract and watching for a sharp drop in OI. I will also be paying extra attention if price trades down near the October low of 1.31456 as this could act as an area of support and would seem like a logical turning point.
Any comments? Do you agree or disagree?