The spot price is not immune because the options exerting a magnetic force on strike price (in this case 1.6300), Sweet Pip.
My chart actually only has it going to 1.6297…no touch 1.6300 barrier (resistance)…is that kinda what DNT means?
It touched, Sweet Pip. You forgot the spread.
DNT pays the owner a multiple of his premium if prices stay within the proscribed parameters during the life of the option.
For example a 1.6300 DNT structure…the owner of the option wants price to touch 1.6300 and may buy GBPUSD to touch 1.6300 [1.6297 +Spread :-)] a second time.
The bank that sold the option will want to push prices away to avoid having to pay-out on the options structure. They failed the first time but the owner needs a second touch to get the money.
So, this time the banks will try harder defending 1.6300. When you look at your charts you can tell Price keeping operations (PKO) has started, already.
What do you mean by “proofed”?..like a strategic stop placement? My stop is 30 pips above at 1.6330 which is above the institutional 20.
You need to make sure your order get’s filled first touch/no touch because that is when the level will get sold off.
But you don’t want to be early because they will suck you into their PKO with Bids underneath from the owners of the option structure. So you will get jigsawed and that is not low risk and a likely hazard to your nerves.
Also, the breakout crowd is sitting up there with Bids and S/L underneath that level. They will feed into the jigsaw as well.
This is all starting to become really clear for me. When you have the tools that you know work consistently, it’s very easy to spot all the problems (in your head usually) that are actually causing your losses. I guess this is pretty typical, but I think what I was doing is taking a bunch of crappy setups because I didn’t have the patience to wait for the good setups. It’s not that I don’t know a good setup when I see it, or what a bad one looks like, but I just think I should be trading “something” so I’ll take whatever comes up first. and some nights I’ll have the patience, but the days where you don’t can eat into those profits so quickly it hurts! So [B]consistent[/B] patience is what I’ll be working on this week(month/year?) and to help me out I’ll be targeting an all new [B]low[/B] profit objective of [B]25-50pips[/B]!
This last week I was up 38pips at one point and in the red by the end of the week! What a waste eh?
Another thing this will force me to do is accept losses as “normal business operations”. My good trades will be netting me 80-120 pips so I know I’ll have some room for a loss or two or three. I noticed some of the best setups often look the scariest, so I think this will give me an edge there…
looking forward to next week’s ICT vids, always learn something new when I watch them
edit:
and in case anyone cared, I’ll be risking ~1% on each trade setup, so nothing flashy there either
That is where I’m at too. And if you want to throw USD Index into the mix then you can see that there is strong support (rising trendline) on a weekly chart, and Optimal Entry once again coming in on the Daily chart (I say once again because if you draw a Fib from Nov 5th 2010 low to Jan 10th 2011 High on a D chart, we had the 79% retracement test/bounce on Feb 2nd. Now draw a Fib from that low to a high on Feb 16th, and you will see that we are now just over the 61.8% retracement with a little room to run before the 79% level.)
More about profit objectives would be nice, I find it hard to know which method I should use. 1.27, 1.618, 100% of the swing.
Determining trade direction bias
Or trailing stops, I’m still not 100% sure as to where and when a stop should be moved
just got done watching the new video , another great one like always! and it did give a new tip/trick to look for this week which was keeping a close eye on the session opens and post what we see, so thanks for that !
impossible one /probably/,some chart/s that might give the direction of the $ strong/weak a step //hour/s// ahead so i can take advantage of EU GU ,would the ‘‘intraday’’ interest rate that u showed in a vid before, do the job ?///u said to have that chart lines smooth for intra day u d have to pay for the service stockcharts.com/// cant tell really for the intraday part as i am not paying for that services yet
kind regards
Quick PTC tip… when viewing the videos… as soon as it loads on Youtube and begins to play hit the “Pause” button and wait 90 seconds then play it and there will be no stops and buffering during the playback.
I would take 30% off at 30 pips… 30% at 100% of the swing your Fib is drawn from… and let the remaining ride for the 127% split the rest at 127% and “reach” for the 162% with a stop just under 127%… that’s one way of skinning that cat.
As for directional bias… I have a couple of tips for you on the next PTC installment. How would you like to know with pretty good odds what the Low or High of the day will be before the European Session even opens? How’s that for tips?
Stay tuned folks… we’re entering the “Elite Zone” lol
I’m not a user of MT4. I use GFT Dealbook. Right now…I’m seaching for the “excel pivot worksheet for non-mt4 users”.
Thank you very much for all the info and examples. This has really helped me learn a lot!!!
ICT, my current weekly goal is 50 pips but I have a question. I take X amount off at +30, and lets say Y amount at lets say 60 pips. Would you say that was a 60 pip gain? A 90 pip gain? Or, an average of the profit taking? Such as 50% off at +30 and 50% off at +60 = an average gain of 45 pips? Sorry if that’s a little confusing lol I’m just wondering what I should consider 50 pips
Thought you’d like that teaser… you will find it quite interesting to say the least.
As for the pips… well if you are hunting 50 pips as a net gain for the week… you simply need to determine what your max risk you would take on if this was obtained by one trade. Lets assume it is one mini lot… you are looking to net $50.00 USD for the week. This will be averaged out of scaling out on trades… do not get hung up on pip and chip counting per trade. Just take what the trade gives you and work towards the net gain, whatever that is for you personal equity and risk appetite.
You should select trades that can potentially pay this weekly goal in one swing… by doing so even if the trade fails to pay out the weekly goal… it will still have you collecting pips in the right direction. I allow, even still, my weekly goal to be harvested over three seperate trades over the entire week… yes… three trades. I can get it on one… but I have realistic standards and because of it… my ego and emotions are completely detached. The results speak for themselves… it works.
ICT I remember you mentioning something like the high or low of the day is created by a certain time but I don’t remember what time that was or what video was it in. From what I remember the high or low of the day is created before the end of the london session is that correct?
OK, now that I have shaken off my dumb-ass early Monday mind (Monday Pivots are calculated from Thursday Midnight to Sunday Midnight, right? I think ICT said Friday midnight which confused me into believing my Pivots should be based on those Sunday ones alone!) I think I can answer your question, hellogoodbye201.
It is in the thread somewhere, but I can’t seem to find it either. ICT said midnight to 4am EST would make the high or low of the day 9 times out of 10. I decided to back test this rule and found it to be a little less accurate in January, but spot on the money if you extended the parameters to 5am EST. I also tested for a random month last summer, and overall I came to the conclusion that ‘The high for the day is made within the 5 hours from midnight EST to 5am EST [B][U]75%[/U][/B] of the time’. Hope this helps. EDIT: Found it! Page 39, Post #388 was my original post…you will find ICT’s reply and other info. around that area. Sorry I can’t help with the video link.