As i see it, the Fib was drawnf from the high on the 13.12.2011 (1.3236) to the low on the 14.12.2011 (1.2948) so you get an OTE at 1.3175 (78%). Price went 20 pips above that level, but its still a valid OTE.
Have a look at the first post. Scroll down to the 25 days of christmas. Day 3: Exploring the asian rangeā¦there is the downloadlink for the asian session indicator. :57:
I just watched the video from last night and with this in mind here are my thoughts for the cable for tomorrow:
As cable trades up right now (and yesterday of course) there might be a lot of people thinking that move will go on tomorrow and go long to catch the train. After the asian session tonight price will be pushed down to raid the stops resting below todays low and then rallye up to 1.5780 or 1.5800 to take the resting stops out between 1.5770 and 1.5780. W%R is oversold on H1 which might indicate a move higher tomorrow also. Besides that MF is bullish on W1, D1 and H4.
I just wanna say thank you ICT This last video really opened my eyes. I always thought something like this was going on. I remember when i first started 6+ months ago I thought wtf is going on. Price would go past my stops by like 5 pips and then go where i wanted it to go. My loss ratio was 9:1(9 losses 1 win). I remember thinking, theres no way that i can be this bad. lol I never realized there was a coordinated effort to take stops but now it all makes sense. Luckily Iāve always used a demo account and never risked real money. The whole part about market makers using demo accounts to judge street money is genius. I look at my charts totally different now and I see the results! Thank you ICT!
Fully agree. Thereās several confluences there and it would be reasonable to expect a turnaround. If you use the outer fib to do an OTE entryā¦if we did a S/L 10 pips above the swing high, youād have a stop of about 70 pips. Generally, we would look for nested OTEās to optimize the entry.
Part of the reason for asking isā¦an entry at 1.3150 was very reasonable as well. Institutional level. Prior support established earlier this month. The October LTL that was recently broken so should now act as resistance. Within the OTE from the outer fib. Daily R1 pivot level.
There were a lot of reasons to think price may react at the 1.3150 level. Iām not dismissing the confluences at the 1.3175 levelā¦they are there too. But almost all of the points supporting 1.3175 are also present at 1.3150ā¦plus the pivot and october low.
Without an OTE to optimize entryā¦how would you select which point to anticipate price to react.
I set a sell limit at 1.3150 because its difficult for me to be awake at LO and just want to have demo trades in to learn about the price behavior and find it more instructive to have a demo trade in place for learning purposes. These trades arenāt geared to be profitable, but instead to provide instructional value.
At this point, I donāt see a reason to expect a bigger reaction of price at 1.3175 instead of 1.3150. Since we anticipate priceā¦I anticipated it at the instutitional 50 level.
Do you see something to value the 80 level over the 50 level.
Perhaps a case can be made that running through the 50 level got more people long becuase we broke through the oct low and slice through it. But not something Iād anticipate.
woaw ICT, what a vid JUDAS TEASERā¦
it didnt have one single slower moment,packed with interesting info and eye openersā¦
explains lot why who wont understand the game behind the curtains will loose.
since 24th there will b enough time till feb.to b modest with watching those gems.
i hope not the whole world of retails will follow this thread as NBās would have to change the game lol.
yr mentoring is blessing. for a mentor who does it out of his heart like you must b very rewarding when his followers/students do good job and get it,and even more when u ask questions and they come up with the answersā¦i think the last one is the hardest to obtainā¦
endless thank u
btw - coincidentally, very often i refer to charts like matrix coding,
cipherās line āāall i c are blonds,brunets, i dont even look at the codeāā
ict - āāall i c are street money, smart moneyāā and i look at the smt and asia lol
I thought the same thing last night. I anticipated 3150, i didnāt trade because iām not trading anything for 3 weeks. But looking at it today I see what looks like smart money still accumulating at 3150. If you look at fiber vs cable from 3:30 to 4:30est on a 5 min chart there is a divergence which is also a small OTE on fiber. I think SM really wanted stops above 3180 and that might have been the footprint they left.
Iām not shure because iām very new to all this forex stuffā¦but what i see are some stops from the recent long positions resting between 1.2985 and 1.2940 and i see januarys low at 1.2874. So price might go down to this level first to blow out the stops and to get people jump on the short-train. Then rallye up to 1.3150 at least and perhaps up to the 1.3450 area later on.
I agree with you that the 1.3150 might be a stronger level than the 1.3180 and i think the 1.3450 area could be very strong also.
You know whatās funny about this whole SMT thing, is that after having been classified as ādumb moneyā for so long, it actually becomes so much more obvious as to which way one would have traded, and then doing the exact opposite
Fury
Thanks for the input.
Wally, this was not a sarcastic question, in case you thought it was.
Iām trying to get a better understanding of what went into that seminar. It was 90 minutes long, so ICT took his time to help us. The fact that its not black and white as you suggest is all the more reason to ponder over it, make sense of it, as
opposed to just waiting for the answers on christmas day. If Iām confused now, who says I wont be on that day as well.
Seems to me like this is going to be more cryptic than we think.
I donāt think thereās anything wrong with trying too hard, we all have our ways, and as long as we all get there in there end is all that matters. We are students now, and I will always be one, but we have to question, I donāt see anything wrong with that.
I know itās probably too soon to get the grasp of it, but even though I get the `theoryā behind it I just donĀ“t see how to pin point in advance what I see in your chart.
I know eventually I (we) will get it just like the other tools youāve taught here, but for now, I guess IĀ“m a slow learner and not so much of a good observer.
Anyway IĀ“ll wait patiently for whatās left to be released to better put it all together.
They make markets. lol. So when you say market maker-are you talking about big commercials, or individual brokers, like fxcm, oanda etc? I still think of a specialist on the floor of an exchange, facilitating exchange, when I hear the term market maker. I know you guys have a different meaning in the Forex context and Im still catching up hereāthats why Im asking.
āMarket Makersā in forex are the big guys aka The Smart Money. There is no central exchange like the stock market. The interbank market is a collection of largest banks in the world and they āmake the market.ā For example, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclays, Citigroup, JPM, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachsā¦etc.
This last video really opened my eyes. I always thought something like this was going on. I remember when i first started 6+ months ago I thought wtf is going on. Price would go past my stops by like 5 pips and then go where i wanted it to go. My loss ratio was 9:1(9 losses 1 win). I remember thinking, theres no way that i can be this bad. lol I never realized there was a coordinated effort to take stops but now it all makes sense. Luckily Iāve always used a demo account and never risked real money. The whole part about market makers using demo accounts to judge street money is genius. I look at my charts totally different now and I see the results! 
