lol. I have to think in terms of pips, not dollars. When I talk to my girlfriend its always in pips. That way when she asks how my trades went, I can say “down 30 pips” instead of “down 1500 bucks”—Its easier on everyone that way.
Mine has finally realized that this isnt just some new thing I am caught up in, as my ADD has me often presenting her new things I have seen and read about everyday.
The tone has changed to I hope you dont love this more than me , I have reassured her thats not the case.
I’ve had to give my wife the same assurances. Although, I didn’t help matters by telling her that I’m naming her 2 breasts “Euro” and “Pound”. Highly correlated pairs that tend to move in the same direction. Occasionally, you may spot divergence, and when you do, you can expect them to snap back to moving in the same direction. It also didn’t help when I told her I was a market maker and love to manipulate the Euro and Pound.
OK…I generally admit I’m confused by the boards reaction…and quite honestly, in regard to yesterday as well.
The general tone seems to be that the better trades the past 2 days have been short…to short the initial moves outside of the Asian range. Clearly, this has been profitable, but I must admit I have some confusion. The movement the past 2 LO sessions has been bullish moves, while the NYO sessions have been bearish moves.
I do see insight into the mindset of stop hunting and building a bias for where the market wants to go. Last night, I put forth a theory that today would be a bullish day in London, and it was. Price didn’t drop below the asian range like I suspected, but the direction I proposed was correct. As I type this, the EU moved down to an entry zone I anticipated to unflod earlier in the day, but price reacted and is currently moving upward. I had a buy limit set at 1.3020 that got triggered at the end of the NYO session and price has currently moved over 40 pips in my favor. Scaled out at 30 pips, moved s/l to BE, and letting the rest ride through the LC session since there appears to be momentum to the long side at the moment (hoping to reach the GMT pivot at 1.3080.
We still had bullish divergence all day yesterday on the pairs, and bullish divergence on the daily and weekly charts.
But reading the posts…it seems most think the moves have been down.
I had a bias to go long today…
price moved up out of Asian, and setup a short OTE during LO. If people had a bearigh bias today…I’m curious what was used to form that opinion. Or is it waiting for a move outside of asia, and an OTE to form anticipating a judas swing and forming the daily bias there.
I’m having trouble reconciling folks having a bearish bias going into today and taking shorts, when 2 days ago…we had a huge upday where SMT bullish divergence was the indicator to go long.
I don’t know if this sounds like too simple of an answer or just because its in hindsight. In the fiber we fell very hard yesterday and didn’t retrace much. Where are most of the stops and street money going to be? I would guess on the short side. How do you kill them? By pushing it up fast and then slamming it down in their face. Most of the people that were short yesterday would probably have their stop above the high at 1pm est yesterday and they all got taken out this morning. Thats how i came up with my directional bias. I didn’t trade it but looking for an entry near 3100 seemed about right. Yesterdays asian lows and near MR1 which was also 3120.
Thinking like street money though…street money wouldn’t have experienced the fall in the euro yesterday. they would have entered long in LO and then got squeezed as price fell. Don’t think street money went short yesterday during the move down. They went long on the breakout and got squeezed. I would have thought street money would say…‘hey…look at the way price bounced down…it’s going to continue down’. hence…i expected a move below asian range to get more shorts on board as it broke out down, and then squeeze them by moving the price up.
I just dont see a point where street money would have entered that got squeezed today…unless new short positions were just entered last night and today after the rejection off the high was established. it just seemed to me most street money would look for a breakout out lower to continue/confirm yesterday’s move down and rejection of price. Thinking like a market maker, I would have thought this would bring more liquidity into the market. move down out of asian showing a break lower, then go up to squeeze them.
A move up out of asia has me confused as i don’t see where street money would have entered to have stops where the price went up to today.
did you check the T-notes yesterday? 2 & 5 yr made lower lows, while the 10yr was higher. That is a bullish signal for the USDX. Between that and what I think are the banks trying to build liquidity right now, I’m expecting to see a lot of stops being taken out, then reversing course
Street money is just reacting to whatever happened most recently. They get in when the move is done and hold onto a losing position until they cant take it anymore and exit…again at the worst possible place
But the bullish divergence on the tbill yield chart is bullish for the EU/GU.
Remember…for bonds…yield and price are inverse. So an increase in yields means bond price is falling. If bond price is falling, that means people are selling bonds to invest in other risk assets (risk on) including equities, euros, pounds, etc.
If we see bullish divergence on yields, and expect yields to go up, we expect our pairs to go up.
You just confused me with this one…
Supposing there are 2 people, jim and bob…jim offers 3% per year and bob offers 5% per year…who will get the most money? bob of course…people will invest their money in bobs “bond”…this will lead to increased demand for this bond and this will drive the price higher…so this is bullish for bob and bearish for jim…
When i first started trading i would have gone short after seeing that fall yesterday. I also would have gone long when i saw it break above 3100 today. lol Street money is always chasing price. I see what you’re saying, they could have tried to trap more shorts with a break below asia. Idk maybe they had enough retail shorts already. I’m sure we’re missing a few tricks that ICT hasn’t talked about yet.
I think you’re thinking about interest rates. When people buy bonds they want safety. They will accept a lower rate as long as their money is safe. If investors think there’s less risk in the market they will sell bonds which cause the yields to go up and buy other investments. On the other hand if the government bonds are too much risk aka Greece. Then the government has to pay people huge amount of money to get them to buy.
, I have reassured her thats not the case.