I wonder if anyone has had trouble with the Asian indi? I loaded it, set parameters (or not), and clicked OK - nothing happened. I check the indicators list and it is not there. I tried another broker/platform, same thing. Finally, on my third platform it works just fine. If anyone has had similat troubles, or especially suggetions for a solution, I would be pleased to hear about it. Not a big problem, it’s very easy to replicate an H5 box and drag it around and adjust it, but still…
Hahaha I laughed at ICT’s pic of today’s action with the nice little insert of some sheep on their way to the slaughter Truth be told, I was one of those poor buggers
Remember, the usdx is simply a us dollar index measuring the dollar against a basket of currencies.
The USDX is not the US bond prices.
US Bonds are bought as a safe haven. (risk off). Bonds are sold when investors want to seek higher return (risk on)
US bond prices are negative correlated to yield. US bond prices and movement isn’t the same as USDX movement.
Remember how bonds work. I’ll use a 1 year t bill bond as an example to make the math a little easier.
You buy a bond for $100. This is the par value. Suppose the Bond has a interest rate of 2%. What this means is you can buy the bond at initial offering for $100. After 1 year, you get your $100 back plus $2. Which is 2%.
Once the bond is on the market…suppose investors think they can get better than 2% return. So they sell the bond. It was $100…but let’s say you sell it for $98. The person buying the bond at $98 gets the $2 interest, plus the initial $100 used to buy it. So they get $4 on their $98 invesement. Or about 4%.
This is nothing to do with the USDX. If investors think better returns are elsewhere…bonds are sold increasing supply and lowering price. This lowering of the price of the bond increases the yield. This increase in yield will at some point incent investors back to the bond to get a return in a safer investment with less risk. And the market decides where that is.
The point here is when yields are rising…bonds are being sold and money is moving into other higher risk investments. If some of those invesment goto currencies, they buy Euro or Pound which move our pairs price up. I.E. Risk on
If people are nervous, they sell Euro and Pound to buy US bonds, as bonds are bought, price goes up and yields go down.
it might be blocked by the broker, because there is advertised website?.. it works just fine with me… try by deleting everything in the ‘‘history folder’’ on your mt4?.. or/and the cache if u find out how…?
If investors think there’s less risk in the market they will sell bonds which cause the yields to go up…
I don’t agree here. If investors sell bonds the first thing that will happen is price goes down. The yields are set by the central bank and they stay the same unless the central bank decides to change it.
What i’ve learned is that central banks do this to control the amount of money and inflation/deflation in their country.
Countries want their currencies to be stable compared to other currencies which makes international business much more easy. Thats why sometimes it is necessary to weaken or strenghten the countrys own currency.
The currency is made weaker when interest rates are lowered because
Investments like bonds are less attractive to investors so they will look for opportunities and might invest in other countries/assets.
Credits are more attractive now because of the lowered rates. This is how central banks “create” money. The more credits they give the more money is “created”. This of course leads to increased inflation which also is a weakness-sign for a currency.
The currency is made stronger when interest rates are raised because
Investments like bonds are more attractive to investors, people decide to invest in that country.
Credits are less attractive and less money is “created”. As a result inflation is lowered which is a sign for a strong currency.
It could also lead to deflation, but central banks normally try to avoid that because it is commonly accepted that a very small inflation is healthy for an economy.
On the other hand if the government bonds are too much risk aka Greece. Then the government has to pay people huge amount of money to get them to buy.
Greece might not be the best example right now
As i said this is what i’ve learned…correct me if i’m wrong.
Ah…i think now i know what went wrong here…because i’m not a native english speaker i sometimes have a little trouble to get things right. So a yield and an interest rate is not the same…think i mixed that up a little.
Looking at the tbond overlay i always thought the interest rates are displayed here…well…now i know it…
Thanx for some more clarity :57:
Was just about to respond saying that. You’re thinking about interest rate yields. Check out a perf chart of the USD, bond yields, and stock market indexes.
For example, lets say you buy a bond with a $100 coupon price which pays 10% annually, which is $10.
Yield = $10 / $100
Thus the yield is 10%.
If bond holders start pulling their money out of bonds in the expectation that they can get higher yields somewhere else, they usually will sell the bond at a discount, as the value they place on it is lower than the coupon price. So say they sell it for $90. You now have a bond paying $10 per annum for which you only paid $90.
Yield = Interest payment / Amount paid for bond
Yield = $10 / $90
Yield = 11%
So the point is - lower bond prices = higher yields, and vice versa. That’s why the yields soar whenever there is minimal demand for a country’s bonds, because it means that the prices investors are willing to pay for the bonds are ridiculously low.
after I wrote up a long analysis, I came to the conclusion that you are correct. Glad I caught it and didn’t tell myself what you already did. When I look up the bonds each evening, I didn’t realize I was looking at prices, just saw a bullish divergence and figured USDX would go up. I haven’t been doing analyisis for the days direction much since I’m asleep for the LO. it seems like when I look at the bond charts and see what i did yesterday, I’m usually correct on the direction. I can’t explain that, I’ll just have to watch it more closely.
I think the only way to explain the market today, is that the market is so thin right now, the analysis is going to go out the window while the market is easily manipulated by a few big players.
problem is that it’s all hindsight. You could’ve easily argued in real time as you were watching the price that it should go even higher and take out those stops at the swing high on that chart. It definitely seems a lot more of a significant swing where stops may be resting and would suck in a lot of longs for people trading with the breakout.
Seriously folks… now look at your charts… isn’t that a thing of beauty?.. Precision and unfolded to the script. Now the point I’m making here is not how awesome I am… but rather how predictable “they” are.
See ya folks in a few hours… look for link and invite around 8:45pm EST.
On my 58 birthday I was given a great gift by one great man. The Judas swing teaser opened my eyes wide open also my ears, Some will learn sooner than others, I will probably be in the latter, and that´s good enough for me.
Truth be told, I was one of those poor buggers 
