Z Day?
Bullish SMT divergence? What bullish SMT divergence, That will happen time and time again. Do not trade based on divergence, you will get burned every time.
will i think now the market structure broken to the down side at the 1h chart and the 15 min chart looking for 1.5578 as the 162 ext from the initial OTE and maybe the 200 ext. and low ADR the next goals
no i am not trading based on the SMT div. but this thing have to be in your consideration all the time
If you look at S+P 500/Nasdaq/DJ you will see a bullish divergence in M15 and H1. As i understand that it is a bullish sign for the USD and with that said a bearish sign for cable and fibre.
Cable today looks a bit like stop hunting but with down tendency and fibre has very strong moves today.
Wellā¦i think iāll stay out today. 
wellā¦ sod the z-day 
As I am not familiar very much with the Zday, Im just wondering:
If I understood correctly, it is a Z day if the high is formed at london and the low before NY open (or viceversa)
is this correct?
so are you guys waiting to jump in long after the low? or are you waiting for a London Close setup? Or sidelines today?
I need to watch that pro traders club video again, I know;) but how are you all going to handle the cable today?
the z-day is when market does nothing, when goes nowhere, consolidatesā¦ there is big chance to loose money in such days, better avoid tradingā¦
according to my notes, z-day is explained in the PTC videos from: 23 May; 22 June; 20 July and 5 October, have a look at these for more informationā¦
:41:
thanks a lot!
I must have misinterpreted a picture about Zday on this forum;)
I assume you meant to say you thought the Fiber and Cable were OVERBOUGHT? Yes? But what all told you that? I know we were in the upper part of the TT (but price seems to break out of the TT a lot), and price started just above CPP (but I dontā believe thats a big indicator that its a sell day necessarily). I did wonder about price being up near last weeks highsā¦
Do you mind telling me all the tools you were using? I guess since 4h MF was up and Market structure was bullish, I thought that meant we were to look for buys until one of the two turned bearish, right?
Also, Iām not seeing the bearish divergence you guys are talking about during LO. Could you post a pic? What time frame are you looking at for SMT?
Matty
i think the daily chart is not in bullish environment
as you can see in the pic. the fractals suggest lower prices since the down move not completed based on price projection at least we have to reach for the 128 ext. thatās what i can see from here. also if you plot the MA you will see that we are still in the down move.
wow i feel extremely happy now!
This was the first time I did a throughout analysis (ICT style) ever! Although Im still waiting for next Monday to take any demo trades, it makes me very happy to see the price moving just as I expected/hoped to.
from OTE to my 1.5580 projection I would have bagged around 80 pips for my first profit taking, more than my weekly goal;) (I know some of you are laughing now, as you are probably making this every day;))
This might have been simply luck, but its really a heads up for me to start demo trading on monday, and to use what I have learned this past few weeks on this thread.
Have a great one!
Fredy
wasnāt planning on releasing th recording but had a change of heart.
WTG bubā¦ Welcome to the party!
yes, sorry I meant overboughtā¦ :27:
ok, giving you my reasons for Bearish bias:
the tool from the last FXmas video (short term trades), the EMAās telling us we are in sell program
the weekly Trinity is in the sell zone
the other āāindicatorāā ICT told us about: W%R on 4hr chart was overbought too
on the daily pivots we where in sell zone
I plot a dailyās Trinity too (not that give much weight on it), where in top of sell zone
chuck PDH in the equation as resistance
confirm all that with the Judas Swingā¦
how many reasons to go short?
my only fault was counting on the stop raid as a trigger to enter and missed it by 3 pips (on cable) and the other mistake was that picked cable instead of fiber, the last had larger asian range, hence wouldāve been the better choiceā¦
ICT just confirm the bearish bias in latest live entryā¦
Hope this helpsā¦
btw, iām getting the impression that you rely heavily on OTEās, I do the same and it is the main reason for my losing tradesā¦ OTE can be found in any directionā¦ use it only for confirmation/precise entry point, not as main tool. This is advice to myself tooā¦
GLGT! :41:
I dream of the day I can do this full-timeā¦ I might actually be awake for a LO session once in awhile
But right now, Iām :24: my future awayā¦
To be fair though, Iām not feeling well and should probably be sleeping more
Take note of the Asian range highās on December 26th and 27th, and how they practically stopped price on a dime yesterday.
Daily fractals are bearish
4 hour Williams %R oversold
1 hour fractals bearish
Price well into the TT sell zone
Price broke upwards from Asian range into the SELL zone of the daily pivots.
Friday is Non-Farm payroll meaning Thursday will most likely be a consolidation.
Where are all the street money trailing stops and how do the big guys make money before tomorrow? Slam the market down.
LO Judas swing in one 15 minute candle.
Limit sell on Euro at 1.3062. 20% off at 1.3025 and remainder off at 1.2990 (the 162 extension).
I will admit, I am one of those that often struggle a great deal with directional bias, and took a loss yesterday shorting the Fiber, but today everything pointed to a sell. Only wish I left 20% to ride the lighting through NYO.
I know my trading would greatly improve if I just had the patience to wait for all the things listed above to line up.
Iāve been sick the past couple days as well. Due to sleeping most of the day, I have been awake a good portion of the night and have been studying the ICT material for hours on end. Re-watching the videos and taking the detailed notes I should have taken to begin with. Getting to watch the NYO session as well which I am rarely up for
Seeing a ton of good analysis going on and a bunch of valid reasons to be entering trades. Iāve been seeing just as many posts about how the market is acting erratically the past few weeks as well. Just one questionā¦ if the pro trader amongst us is sidelined, why arenāt you guys?
Seems like it might be the best idea to remain flat until next week when the liquidity returns to the market and the structure is more predictable.
ICT has taught us a ton of great concepts and how to apply them, but the one recurring thing he preaches is patience!
Hmmm, guys:
If you donāt mind me asking, what is your long term bias for the USD? And I mean LONG long term, as in a period of months at least. I canāt help but feel that, especially with the COT data, there will be huge downside movements for the dollar in the long run. Yet, most news providers and so called āprofessional tradersā (ICT excluded :p) are the first to say that the USD will continue to strengthenā¦ Letās say hypothetically speaking, that the EZ sorts out its issues - surely this would be heavily bearish for the dollar?
Reading posts since last night. Obviously, we know the answer now if this was a buy day or sell dayā¦(sell day). But looking at your analysis Matty, just have one comment. If price gets to the 1.3000 figure, that would break the hourly fractal low established at NYO open from yesterday and market flow on the hourly would turn bearish.
I like your analysis and can see why you thought today would be a buy day. Just making an observation as we collectively begin internalizing more of these concepts for us to watch out for. Projecting Judas swings makes sense. Maybe we should consider the impact on market structure if it swings to a logical place that would turn market structure in a different direction at the time we are actually entering the market. IEā¦when doing analysis, it was bullish, but if the judas swing happens, some of what we do our analysis on is invalid because then that turns market structure (at least the hourly) in a different direction.