Its a good night : )
Iâm confused about the theory of the profit release phase. Weâve talked about Smart Money engineering a move either up or down to distribute or accumulate before they âslam it downâ to the profit release portion of the day. So say weâre in down day, SM has run price up. Dumb money thinks price is going up, they take longs while the SM takes the other side. When SM decides to move it down, who the heck is taking the other side of these trades, the Longs, when price is collapsing down? Hard for me to believe there is enough volume on the other side of these trades.
Hi, TnTrader. I am also interested in the videos if you please. ([email protected]). Thanks in advance.
Less than 3% of voters âDonât Think This Thread Delivers In Itâs Nameâ, thatâs pretty impressive.
I use to wonder about this too especially NFP big spikes.
A few ways to look at:
-
It just does. Why tie yourself in knots in the details. (I know not satisfactory)
-
Retail forex is Bucket Shop, meaning your broker or an asociate is a market maker and part of thier licence is to supply liquidity ie they gotta take the other side, then they bundle it up and on sell all these orders to maybe a commercials. I read that one somewhere on the internet so itâs gotta be true.
-
I do like Chris Loriâs take on this. Itâs very thin liquidilty and those long bars are actually full of gaps and he and I think Steve W have tactics to trade these as gaps. But Iâm actually trying to clanse my mind of anything expect ICTâs methods at the moment, till I get it down, then maybe invesigate the other odd tactic.
Wally
Yeah we should all chip in to have brass plaque made up with the 3% names and stick on a statue of the village idiot.
.
.
.
Just joking, Im sure they had their reasons at the time.
Wally
Anyone trading? Iâm looking at fiberand though both are again bearish, I see OTEs at the 1.2780 level. Looks like a S&D market right now.
OK, so⌠I wonder if anyone on the thread remembers me? 
Itâs been a very long time between posts for me now, although you might have noticed my name âlikingâ a post here or there.
I have not been slacking off, rather I have been diligently studying away, researching, testing, demoingâŚbasically trying to set myself up for a bumper 2012!
Itâs been really enjoyable seeing new guys jump in the thread, see people helping each other out, all learning together. Thanks, as always, to ICT for putting all this out there, and fostering a real community of aspiring traders :35:
Anyway, my post was mainly to say that Iâm still alive, and that after all my study and preparation, I feel ready to take it live in 2012. Starting with $5K (AUD), Iâm aiming for 19% ROE per month, risking 1% per trade.
I will only trade the London open, and take a maximum of 2 trades per day.
As part of trying to participate more actively and give back to others who have helped me, I will post a weekly update of my progress to the thread, as an inspiration, or warning (hopefully the former!)
I also have a blog/trade journal on wordpress.com, which goes by the name âapmonsterâ. (I wonât put the link here, as I donât know how that would sit with the mods).
â apmonster (AKA Mike).
Billy D, Although Im probably not in the position to give any advice in my early stage of Forex Trading;)
But I always thought of it this way:
lets say we are in a bearish environment and price is moving UP out of asian range to form our beloved Judas Swing.
dumb money gets all excited and buys, lets say cable, so they are buying dollars and selling pounds (or the other way around⌠not sure;)). As you pointed out, the smart money is taking the other side and therefore is selling the cable ( and this means in reverse: selling dollars and buying pounds), and they are basically selling it at a very high price, since they know, they will be buying it again a few hours later for a lot cheaper.
So in other words: The dumb money on the move up IS the one taking the other side of the smart moneyâs down move.
at least this is what I always believed and I am more an happy to be corrected;)
so longâŚ
by the way⌠does anyone know the timetable?
When does the train to london leave? and its on platform number: 1.5450 isnât it?
so long
I watched the Explosive Profits video tonight, quite an eye opener!
My question is: when shooting for a big chunk of the weekly range (200-300pips), how does one manage the risk?
Does the 2% still work here?
Thank you for any insights.
same order 
OTE has appiered.
Hello Guys,
I hope everyone has a great weekend. âŚ
I going to go ahead and post my analysis for the EURUSD if you donât mind.
- We have a bearish market structure on the higher TF
- We have a bearish market flow on the higher TF too
- We are in a trending market profile
So we are in a Sell Programme
-I see that price went North from itâs sundayâs open price
-I have a daily resistance @ 1. 2796
-I have a 1h supply level between 1. 2802 and 1. 2781, this coincide also with the Asian range from last friday.
-I see an OTE from the 1h Chart
So based on this information, I am looking for shorts. Since London Open did not gave us a âsellâ signal entry, I think that NY Open could give a sell signal. I am also thinking that the BB would like to test the Round nr of 1.2800, since we also have a supply area there.
The only think that âbotheredâ me is that ICT said that if we are in a sell programme then, there is a 80% probability that the high of the week would be made on tyesdayâs NY Open, so I donât know if it would be safe to take an sell entry todayâŚ?
Anyway, since I have written a plan, I would trade my plan. I will be focussing on my Money Management.
Here is my screenshot
Imagebin - A place to slap up your images.
Regards,
Mel
Remember that at least some portion of the movement is probably due to the dumb moneyâs stop losses⌠They are already long, so when price slams downwards and hits their stop losses (i.e. short orders), they are taking the other side of their own trade (so no other party involved) and assisting in the price move downwards as well by creating further selling pressure. Thatâs probably why it moves down so violently.
I like this analysis, but where is the OTE though? I donât have my charts so I canât check, but doesnât it look like it would be around 1.2780 or so? This is also an institutional level.
Ah well not like I can trade it from work anyway, so whoever does, enjoy! 
By the way guys, one more âlikeâ and we have reached 8000!
[QUOTE=PureMuscle;309994]I like this analysis, but where is the OTE though?
Hey Pure Muscle,
It seems like i did not put the right chartâŚ
Here is my chart with OTE
Mel
Good post, Mel21. Had a pending order to short fiber during London open and it got filled 2 hours later. Seems the downmove already started. One more OTE during NewYork open seems to be possible. Lets see what how this all plays out.
Edit: Just made it to TP1 and took 50% off after 30 Pips and SL to break even. Nice beginning of 2012 right there. 
You mentioned âone more OTE during NO seems to be possibleâ, can you please extract this? Why do you think it will be one more OTE?
Hey Everyone â Iâd like to set up a Price Alert with notification by email. Has anyone successfully set up email alerts in MT4 to gmail? I have a Price Alert script but it doesnât see to work / I can get it to email. Thank you.
And can I just say this thread is sooooooo cool. Learning so much every day. Thanks ICT and fellow ICTers! Many pips to us all!