Looks like I have a completely different take on today than most. I’m long on the cable.
First, I’ll post my analysis for my bias for the day. Then my trade entry analysis.
Bias for the day: LONG on CABLE
NOTE: Images should be clickable to bring up a big chart.
First off, I admit this goes against the sell program and the guideline that the high is put in by Tue LO, then we move down. I understand that concept, but I am focusing on developing the discretion with trading instead of trying to follow mechanical rules.
Reasons to be long.
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I posted a version of this last week, but the 1.5380-1.5480 level (depending on how you draw your line) is a major S/R level extending back several years. It has been broken a few times. But it has been respected many times. We touched this line 4 times since the end of September and never had a weekly close below it.
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We now have a fractal high on the weekly from the week of dec 18. This fractal high was only a 38% retrace of the swing down. We haven’t breached the 50% retrace mark. I’m somewhat expecting a retrace to this level. Looking back over weekly charts, it appears that significant range expansion occurs after a significant retrace. (I think several sites and theories talk about this as well). We had less than a 50% retrace of the most recent swing down, so a large downward expansion is suspect to me.
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I acknowledge that the fractal high is now established for the week of December 18 and we are in a sell program. Using the videos from ICT, in a sell program, look to go short on the 3rd week after a fractal high forms. But as I said in number 2…I’m somewhat suspicious of this retrace. Also, we have a major SR level that we are dealing with which could form the basis of a short term upward move.
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I am longer term bearish and think the sell program will continue. At least down to about the 1.4800 level which is a 78% retrace of the LTL from May 2009 through the APril 2011 LTH. It will be interesting to see if we get an move higher from there as a long term position move.
So…those are the reasons from a weekly timeframe analysis to be suspect at this point. I do anticipate a move up the the 1.5900-1.600 range as a counter trend (This is the OTE for the most recent swing down), then move down for range expansion to the downside.
Now…I do not trade this on a day to day basis. Just long terms thinkings rumbling in my head.
On the daily…
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We had a fractal low form using Friday’s daily candle if you use Sunday candles. This is the third day after the fractal low, so it is reasonable to expect today to be an up day. We did have a fractal high form on Tue last week on the 3rd. The third day after that fractal high was down, which formed a new fractal low (Friday’s action). So I was expecting today to be an up day in a counter trend.
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The AR established 4 hour market flow to be up. As well as 1 hour being higher as well. So being long is trading with short term market flow even though market structure is short. I am entering this as a scalp…not a swing trade to hold more than today.
Again…I recognize we are in a sell program…but the question we need to ask ourselves is where do we think price will go over the next few hours. With the long term SR level still around this price, and the fractal low forming on the SR level, I think price short term will go up.
Now, for the zoomed in 15m entry.
Look like a classic buy day just before the NYO when I was doing my analysis. Small move above the AR, judas swing down to the CPP. Swing higher, retrace. I entered at the OTE at 1.5462.
I did a TP at 30 pips with 30% of my trade. When LC started, price started to come back down quickly, and closed the remaining 70% for an 8 pip gain. In hindsight, I didn’t have to close it as price didn’t reach my SL. But its OK. Rule #1…preserve capital. and I still made over 1% on the trade.
I do note that today’s high is running into a confluence of resistance. Today’s R1, Friday’s AR high, and the 1.5500 figure. I will be anticipating a move up to the 1.5520 level as a possible Judas swing tomorrow (1.5520 has been a level generating a lot of support or resistance historically.). ANd potentially down for the rest of the week following the sell program.)
GLGT
Well 50% safe to be more accurate 