Everyone is entitled to their opinions… but I subscribe to that view and understand if it escapes some traders or that they do not refer to it in their trading.
Here’s one for the notes…
Every January note which markets are trading with 12 month and or 4 year Commerical Net Positions.
The data suggests that in January those markets with extremes in net longs by the Commercials have a very high odds of being significantly higher later in the same year. Conversely, those markets with Commerical Net Shorts in 1 and or 4 year extremes have a high odds of trading significantly lower in the same year.
Study your charts in January every year and note how this unfolds yearly.
:57:
You are a far better trader than I and have been successful in the markets for far longer, but what PippytheGrt wrote about the commercials does not make sense.
PippytheGrt wrote that “Commercial large hedgers are best. They know the Supply/Demand situation because they trade on fundamentals. They are selling into the market going higher and buying into the market going lower. Looking at my notes, large hedgers are those who are currently net long. They are the Smart Money.”
How on earth can smart money have been going long at 1.4 to steadily longer now? In fact if you look at COTs, cots constantly show commercial large hedgers on the wrong side of the market - I explained this in another post, but you cannot subsribe to these commercial hedgers being smart money when they are on the wrong side of the market every time. Anyway I’ll not say anything more on the subject since this is your thread.
You would want to watch ICT’s video that I referred to in my previous post for the answer. The explanation is in there.
EDIT this is the video I was referring to:
4.1) COT - Sentiment - OI - Range Cycles - Fibs & Pivots - The Figure - View Video
This is the scariest video I have ever seen!
Michael, I’ve been working really hard on integrating the “handling losses & inevitable drawdowns” concepts into my trading.
Of course the numbers make sense, but put in another way, you are basically saying that we should only be placing our [B]Max Risk Bets[/B] (whatever those may be) when we are[B] at Account Equity Highs[/B]… or very close to it. It seems the trick is to use your highest risk bets to achieve explosive growth in equity highs, but never use those high risk bets to MAKEUP a drawdown.
Is that the holy grail you were referring to? lol 
I watched with eyes wide open the whole 3 hrs!
…bear in mind this film is made in 1996 and it predicts that we are heading for another heavy recession and financial catastrophe… and here we are! 
I watched that video on Paul Tudor Jones… and what an experience, haha. Gotta love the 80s business era, had a few good laughs. Made me feel like I’m livin in the future with my trade setup… that video will make you so very very grateful for MT4 and an online broker, LOL
But he did have a lot of good nuggets, lotsa meshing with ICT concepts even.
For instance there’s this one day that he wants to Buy, then calls into his floor traders and tells them to sell some… because he didn’t want anyone else to know he was buying that day…
we have a term for that in these parts…Judas Swing 
Notice any similiarity between it’s production time and anyone in particular’s Trading career?
:13:
Hey guys/gals
Just doing a bit of chart studing for the week ahead and have noticed divergence on the 4hr charts between Cable and Fiber. Sorry I cant post the charts here but if you take a quick look at the charts from 6th Jan to now you should be able to see it. Could this suggest we are going to see an itermediate or long term low?
just wondered if anyone else had seen it.
Its going to be an amazing year for us all !!!
oh, BTW his “Right-hand man” cracks me up because he reminds me of …
ROFL
but seriously, he’s got lotsa great advice too
This video was a timely documentary and it is one that has impacted my “perspective” of the Powers behind the movement of all things Money-Centered.
It began a long research that continues today on the subject of the Rothchilds, Bilderberg Society, and few others that remain unmentioned here.
It actually was ignited by a conversation I had with my Uncle Stan when I first started trading Currency Futures in 1996. I asked my Uncle who at that time had more understanding behind Economics than I did then… I said… “If we have debt just print more money”… to which his response was “that deflats the Dollar and makes your money have less buying power”… to which to my Contrarian Mind received as “Gold”.
If my Uncle, God Bless him, had this mindset it solidified it was the “General Consensus” and that is where the secret rests. We are blinded and controled in our perspective and this is the core practice of manipulation. So I laid in bed and thought about it… if the Powers tha be could control our minds with deception this surely took place in the World’s financial markets… and you see the fruits of that Revelation in this thread.
I spent my entire adult life cracking the code of the “Elite Manipulators” and while I can never beat them… I discovered I didn’t have to… I just decyphered their business model and it’s something once understood shakes the foundation of Speculation and what it means to be an “Investor”. There really is a Big Bad Wolf out there… and he won’t knock first… he will devour you and your home if you leave yourself open to it. If the wolf’s hunting pattern is understood… and you can’t take control from him… you join the wolf pack and the hunt… otherwise, you are the hunted. It really is that simple.
:27:
…as far as I’m aware, Mr Huddleston (to be included in ‘‘Market Wizards 3’’ 
), got inspired into Trading and made his first big wins?.. :33:
Hey guys,
i had some thoughts going on about SMT this weekend. As everyone knows there can be several divergences at the same time. This can be sorted out by looking at higher TFs, general market direction / bias and S+R levels. But i also noticed that sometimes there is no divergence right before the move starts. Because of this i had the idea to add another pair to the SMT and look for divergences like we do with s+p/dj/nasdaq.
The pair that has the closest relation to fibre and cable is EURGBP i think, so i made this -->
This “pimped” SMT would have announced the drop on friday…12:15 GMT to 13:15 GMT (my chart is GMT+1) fibre and cable both made lower highs while EURGBP made higher highs (M15) you can see it in the picture.
I will have a look at that over the next days.
So, what do you think?
p.s. I don’t know if that was mentioned in one of the videos as i haven’t watched all of them yet. If it has been mentioned take this as a reminder, if not…patent pending 
This revelation makes the currency markets a very interesting corner of the financial markets…
…it makes me question what exactly the foreign exchange market is for… I have to believe it strengthens the cabal of money changers. It creates more perceived value for their particular brand of fiat money. For instance, the federal reserve note via the FX market, gives the owner the power to purchase goods all over the world. It even gives the power for entire governments to be indebted to other nations.
It also legitimizes their notes in the eyes of the people. They can say “hey, maybe you don’t believe in our lie, but at least you can exchange it for ________ at X.XXXX price”. And we think that it gives us an escape and allows us to accept the potential for their deceit. But if the FX market is simultaneously controlled by them, that escape isn’t very reassuring.
Then there are the “wise” who flee all fiat money and go to gold. But then we discover that GOLD itself is also controlled by the elite manipulators, just to a lesser degree, hahaha.
So basically the elite are sitting pretty, knowing that even if they lose their total control via fiat money, they can still control, largely, the supply of gold.
Dammit, I’m going to start hoarding talley sticks!!!
It’s been mentioned lol
You’re on the right path FR!
However, are you suggesting that our basic Correlated Pair SMT failed to signal a Sell Confirmation?
Friday’s SMT divergence was picture perfect! so i took a picture:
15M bar chart
…lines delineate London Open and Close
not to mention the larger SMT Distribution Confirmation on the larger swings…
ICT, you still planning on doing a test run tomorrow?
Well, sometimes it can fail, but i think that is due to data feed differences between the brokers…one person might have that little wick on the candle that makes the divergence and someone else doesn’t have it. It’s a lot more obvious when you use line charts as they don’t show the wicks. So, line charts can fail more often.
I thought of this “pimping” as of improving or adjusting our beloved filter tool to make it more precise.
So, you talked about that already, hmm? Does that mean i have to invent something else? :17: