Excellent point. I have made about 25 pips by being wrong (I use the harsher method of calculating pips…If I take 30% off at 30 pips, move SL to breakeven and get stopped out…I only claim 9 pips so that it ties to my risk:reward ratio and percentage gains…I think many here would claim that as 30 pips). So I’m at about 1.7% up on the week even though every trade has been short.
This is why taking some profits off consistently is important in my opinion. The big range sell days like Wed and Fri last week are fun and big money makers. But you can be profitable trading with the larger timeframe trend during a countrend going against you if you utilize the concepts to get in at areas where price will react, and exercise sound money management principles.
when I first joined this thread, I did my analysis and had my bias and trade planned out one night. I read someone else’s analysis, which was the opposite of mine. Since that person had been around longer than me, I decided to use their analysis to trade instead of mine. You can guess what happened here. My analysis was correct, but since I did not trade on mine, I ended up with a losing trade.
Do your own analysis, place your trades, and try to stay away from the chat rooms if other’s opinions are going to sway your decisions. You will not become a good trader if you depend on others for analysis and entry signals
I wish things were that simple =]…But remember, ICT has shown to at least wait for a 3 candle swing point to form (on any timeframe chart i assume )before switching bias …so even though we have a hammer…this week would have to close above last weeks to at least have a fractal low formation
True, I know that it requires a 3 candle pattern for a swing point to form, and I’m not trying to jump the gun, but lets be frank; how often in forex is a bullish hammer followed by a down candle?
Also, I don’t dispute that we are in a “sell programme”, but there was no doubt that this week was going to be a buy week, especially since last week closed so heavily downwards. Price has only gone up. up and even further up since the week started.
All the time. I would have been more on the up bias if the week opened and went down. What I see alot of times is if the hammer holds you will generally see a 50% retracement of the hammers wick if the fist half of the next candle. But thats just from me watching charts for way to many hours. And the only time I will ever buy the hammer. Mainly due to lower risk.
I have been studying the videos and tried to apply what I’ve learned so far doing some back testing.
To keep things simple, I only applied the following set of guidelines:
Used the 4hr chart to determine bias on market flow
Traded only the London Open ICT Kill Zone
Looked for OTE’s using Fibs based on determined bias against swings 40 pips or higher (I bended the rule slightly here at 37 pips and higher in some cases)
Stop loss 10 pips below 100% fib level (long) or above 100% fib level (short)
Take full profit at 0% fib level
Using these basic guidelines, I had about a 60% success rate and averaged about 40 pips per month (3 months back testing). My losing trades basically ate away a lot of my gains.
Would anyone have suggestions in terms of what I am missing or doing wrong regarding my high level guidelines ? With some tweaking, I believe I can minimize my losing trades.
Last week Friday we had just broken the key support at 1.2660 or whatever, and established a new 15 month low on the fiber.
Any longer TF oscillator would suggest that we were Heavily oversold.
The aforementioned bullish hammer.
Street money that follows market flow would be bearish - particularly since the fundamentals were extremely bearish for Europe - France’s rating downgrade etc/
Where would the majority of the money be in the market? It would be above the previous swing highs, owing to the fact that basically everyone was short below 1.2660.
If you look at the H4 chart, the week started off at midnight GMT on Sunday with bullish divergence between the cable and fiber.
There is a lot more suggesting a buy week than just that candle, I was just saying that it was one of the most obvious pointers to this week’s move so far…
3 months is not alot of backtesting. 60% sucess rate is really good. I would better time entries if you are eating away at your profits then try to tighten up your stop loss to lower risk and increase profit potential. Then retry back test and see if it improves.
You can see it that way. I see it as most street money can not afford swings on the weekly charts so wont trade them to much. Instead trade intraday and use weekly charts for reference. With that said seeing a nice bullish candle form on the weekly will cause them to buy it placing stoplosses just below the wick of the candle. Especially since the week is almost over and its an up week. Hands are getting itchy to get in since the week is winding down now. You honestly think they are selling this that you stated? I think you might have learned a little to much and are now hunting your own stops lol just messin with ya.
This guy mainly focuses on stocks and tangible numbers from chart patterns or candlesticks. But “bullish hammer” or “inverted hammer” is bearish continuation 65% of the time according to his research.
Lol, well we are all entitled to our own opinions bro All I’m saying is that had I kept my bias of going long all week, I’d be up almost 300 pips already trading intraday. So even if tomorrow and Friday turned out to be sell days, I’d only lose 60 pips if I traded once on each day and lost. Anyway, the point I was making was that this week’s action isn’t as complicated as some may think.
Point very well made there. This week has not been to crazy at all. I have not gotten any clear entries for me. So either way unless tonight has something for me then looks like I will have 0 trade with an all time high profit for the year of 0 pips. I have really got to wake up for LO one of these days lol.
Interesting. With the given that ICTs methods aren’t mechanical, if you applied pivot buy/sell zones as a filter, London Open I’d use GMT pivots, you’d trade less and be more profitable I’d guess.
My risk per trade usually ranged between 20 to 30 pips and in some occasions between 30-35 pips. Will try and tighten stop loss as suggested and see if I can squeeze out more pips.
I too have been expecting a retrace for many of the reasons you cited. The biggest one being market sentiment. After Friday…everything was bearish on Europe.
You’re bring a lot more to the table now over the presence of shape of a candle.
I would have been more bullish if we had a swing below the open on Sunday. Given it is a holiday week and price has only been going up…I’m skeptical of this rally.
Remember, there is no right or wrong here. We trade probabilities. There was a probability we would be bearish this week. And a probability to be bullish. What we are looking for is an edge to tip the probability in our favor.
Your analysis is fine. There was a probaility of it being right, and a probability of it being wrong. So far this week.that would have been a profitable edge.
I was thinking of adding the pivot buy/sell zone as a guideline (added confluence) initially but I saw so many examples of trades done short in buy zone and vice versa (based on market flow bias … etc)that I decided not to incorporate it. Could be something to think about as mentioned to limit the number of trades and have higher probabilities.
Also…it appears you might be attempting to make elements of ICT’s guidelines mechanical. A question here or there may be OK…but instead of discussion here, it might make sense to create a thread on this topic as this one is mainly for discretionary analysis and questions related to that.
Also…market structure could be a good filter. Or price in relation to the most recent Asian range, or week opening price.
My apologies in advance if this post is intrusive. I trade VSA, supply/demand (no software). Starting from Fridays low, I had very clear signals for longs only. Smart Money was positioned long going into the week…and have been marking price up for profit. That’s the short explanation.
Since we are all here to help, I’m hoping this post is taken well and might bring you to look into VSA, something that can help your trading…and that’s all I’m trying to do, help. Feel free to ignore me and stick to your plan as well…just putting it out there since I saw some confusion regarding something I see as simply routine.
)before switching bias …so even though we have a hammer…this week would have to close above last weeks to at least have a fractal low formation
All I’m saying is that had I kept my bias of going long all week, I’d be up almost 300 pips already trading intraday. So even if tomorrow and Friday turned out to be sell days, I’d only lose 60 pips if I traded once on each day and lost. Anyway, the point I was making was that this week’s action isn’t as complicated as some may think.