First, it seems to me that what Steph is doing is simply systematically applying the information that is given at the beginning of ICT’s material. To my mind, even “discretionary” trading methods are in fact “mechanical”. They might not be programmed into a computer, but they still follow a set of rules. The discretionary trader doesn’t randomly take action D. He takes action D when he sees that conditions A, B and C are fulfilled.
Second, Steph, I strongly suspect that if you were to watch and apply some of the recent material on higher time frame analysis your results would improve. I have found the two long videos about Higher Time Frame Analysis, the Open Access video on ICT’s Livestream channel, the Power of Three and the ICT Traders Trinity particularly helpful.
Third, only end part of your trade early on and let the rest run on. It is these run-ons that make your profits and wipe out your losses.
I have been rather remiss because I havent got my live account going yet. Feb 1 cant come soon enough.
But watching you guys roll, make some good trades, but also make mistakes is helping me so much. Seeing where you guys are going right and wrong is making me understand patience while also having to wait for my turn.
I am going to go in using what I understand with the methods, and make MY OWN analysis and if it is NOT UNDERSTANDABLE, just stay away. I will be soooo tempted to trade on the 1st but if I dont see something I know I can be happy saying I didnt lose any money my first day!
Got me thinking - and a very simple thought - maybe S-D days are ‘expected’ at or near long term s+r points - it seems to make sense - there may be a pause in the action, for big money to pillage? Or near a turning point, or etc. . .
I’ve seen some of the videos you mentioned but did not fully study them as I wanted to focus on applying the basics initially provided in the first videos and material covered in the first set of PTC videos. I will re-visit and study them as suggested. Regarding partial profit taking and letting the rest run (up to a high or low using swing projection …) was not in my plan initially when doing back testing. I can see as you mentioned how it could have helped if also applied properly.
Here is a example of a losing trade I would have taken when backtesting the london open on October 17th using the guidelines I had mentioned. I checked my 3 month back tests and noticed I had a additional guideline to only trade if I had either the Daily-4hr or 4hr-1hr charts in sync regarding market flow.
Daily-4hr-1hr charts - Bullish
Looking for Long OTE in London Open Kill Zone
OTE=1.5816
SL=1.5792
TP=1.5847
Just to add to my orginal posts regarding my 3 month back tests, I would have executed a total of 27 trades (16 won and 11 lost … 59% success) for a total of 186 pips (I deducted 3 pips per trade for spread).
this is exactly what I have been noticing over the past couple months. During periods of transition, the amount of S&D, and reversal days pick up, most likely to provide liquidity for bigger moves
Looks to me like you bought the judas swing. Watch the video on that. It will explain what happened a lot better than I can. Also trail a stop by the looks of it you missed your tp by just a few pips. If you took partial profit and trailed up the stop you would have better results. I dont take partial profits myself as I dont see the point but I trail stops tightly and sometimes it a good thing other times I get stoped just to see price fly in my direction but either way I made money.
Looks like you answered you question. What do you think a transition period is gearing up for? The way I see it they build up stops to take out. If they dont get enough stops in the direction they want then it will be a S&D day to take everyone out the market. Big money gets paid no matter what never forget that.
-My broker is GMT +2 (Edit 1- Sorry for this answer. It is not accurate. My broker for analysis IS GMT and the one for trading is GMT +2 )
-Yes, I simply got out
-My minimal monthly goal is 200 pips and the trade surpassed that and today I have more important things to be focus on and I don’t want distractions (we are waiting today a little princess).
-I don’t like to do that, a little complicated for me, but anyway forced to do something similar sometimes when my trades are fractioned by lack of liquidity
Hope so bro. Just be careful and don’t force anything
Best regards
“Me quedaré, me quedaré, siempre cubano me quedaré…”
Edit 2-
And NOBODY is invincible in this GAME. Only 4 bad decisions to get here:
at the end you mentioned COT, commercials having extreme long positions…
hmm
I think the source of my data is wrong then?
Could you guys tell me where you get your COT data from (free data if possible) and if possible with the nice net traders positions, overlaid like ICTs ESignal data? I use "Timing charts"s data but I don’t see any extreme levels?
would be great to compare…
haha j/k Michael
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