I wanted to get on the other side of the NFP report and start a new week to get a beat on what Price might try to reach for… let’s see what London presents us.
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GLGT
New Pro Traders Club posted on the first post of this thread… 
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GLGT
yeah being “head of the class” isn’t really where I like to be. I post what I do because I want this thread to take off, and I know the best way to do that is show to everyone that these tools and concepts and lessons and rules can be applied to YOUR trading and that it does work and will make you money. I can’t even explain how grateful I was that ICT came back and “resurrected” his thread. I learned so many things in his thread from last March, but since it wasn’t really the complete package I was still lost for the most part.
Well here’s a sobering disclosure for y’all: I’m in the red $14,500 overall in Forex. Been tracking it since my first trade and promised myself to never cover up my losses and enter that hell known as denial. So maybe I’m picking up what ICT is saying quickly, but it’s only because I’ve run out of time to keep pissing my money away at greed and overtrading!
You can come out of it… patience and focus and a significant measure more of… Patience.
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GLGT
Alright, so I’m going to try something new this week. I’m going to post my analysis of the Cable every night at or around 1:00am my time (2:00am EST), where I’m thinking of entering, and in what direction, and then I’ll post the results of any trades I took. This is a very selfish act, I won’t lie. I want as many people as possible to criticize my analysis, because that’s how I learn best.
Starting from the top down - I see that we haven’t been able to hold above the 1.6300 level yet. If price does reach above there, there are some highs from back in September/October that I’d imagine price would reach for - that’s way in the future though.
Market flow is bullish on the daily, and bearish on the 4h and 1h - so the market flow bias is short.
We are, however,currently in a buy zone, so I’m going to be looking for opportunities to go long, until price leaves the buy zone.
There are 3 possible entries I see here - the first one I’m hoping for would be an entry long at S1 - there is confluence with the PDL, and Friday’s S1 is only about 10 pips away (also, Thursdays S1 is about 3-4 pips away). If price trades down there, I might wait for one more bit of confluence before I take a long, it depends on how price is behaving.
The second entry is at R1 - Friday’s high lines up with it quite nicely, as does Friday’s MR1, and it’s right at the 1.6300 level which price hasn’t been able to hold above - definitely a reasonable place to look for a short, if price were to reach there at a sensible time.
The third entry is something that I might consider scalping - the Central Pivot lines up with the 50% fib drawn from Friday’s high to low, and is also right smack dab in the middle of the OTE zone. It also lines up fairly well with Friday’s MS1. Again, if I were to enter short there, I wouldn’t be looking for more than 20-30 pips.
Anyone agree/disagree?
Update: Entered short @ CPP - 1.6269, stop loss at 1.6290. stopped out for -21 pips.
Akea thanks for disclosing. Sobering, as you’re clearly not an undisciplined guy, nor lacking in the ability to apply systematic tools. Would you ascribe your level of drawdown to classic risk management issues, jumping around systems too much or other? I’m sure we’ll be part of this thread, ICTs gang, for the forseeable future so the pints are on me when you hit B/E (initial goal only:)).
Rereading your post Akea you site greed and overtrading, a particular system, T/F or generally? I over traded horribly last week, traded NFP, lost and spent all day scalping back to B/E, horrible stressful day. Swing trading only this week.
Armnog, I don’t think a daily ideas review is selfish at all, great idea. My main goal this week is developing my discipline so as I don’t see much bias, I’m flat for Monday morning.
If Asian low holds at 1.6032 I may look to go long in NY open if price moves back into the buys zone, at least to the 50% intraday fib but as a discipline exercise I’ll hold for a potential O.T.E.
I’ve got a new daily checklist I’ll try and post. It’s an open word doc ODF text document. I’m computer stupid I’m afraid, how can I post it for anyones use, comment or adaption?
I’ve made a discovery! Not a particularly pleasant discovery, but a discovery nontheless.
So, for Monday’s pivots, I like to use Friday + Sunday’s price data - I like a full 24 hours worth of price information reflected in my pivots. It turns out the pivot indicator I use on my MT4 platform doesn’t do that. In fact, it registers Sunday and Monday as a single day. This knocks my pivots out of whack by 15 pips or so for Monday. As a note for the future, I should manually calculate my pivots for Mondays.
Also, Jaroon - the idea in itself isn’t selfish, but my motives behind it are. I’m not doing it to help others, only myself. If other people benefit from my mistakes - all the better! But that’s not my actual intent. That doesn’t mean I won’t do my part to help others, just… not with my daily stuff.
Jaroon, it was mostly from overtrading on the smaller timeframes 5m/1m. Biggest chunks were from days when I’d fight the market flow (not that I knew I was doing this at the time) all day long and get cleaned out with 3 or 4 losses. I guess that was an ego problem, but still 3 or 4 trades is too many in a day (something I recently decided).
Euro was a Long at London Open… nice swing captured… looking at Cable in the New York Open we have potential setup to stalk at the 1.630 Figure… currently price likely to retrace the London Swing and we have R1 pivot with Old Highs and the Swing retracement from the London Swing converging at the 38% retracement.
The daily charts are poised to push higher and this might be a candidate for a handsome trend trade. Something to monitor and narrow your focus on.
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GLGT
I would like to share a basic run down of my trade this morning.
EURUSD - daily and the 240 is still going up according to fractals…FIB on the 15m gives a OTE between 1.3955 - 1.3966.
Took the long at 1.3966, took first exit @ +30 and moved stop to BE. Took second exit 1.4027. Initially, I had set target at 1.4040 because of R2, FIB extension and previous day mr2 were all setting at 1.4045
BTW, thanks for the reply about the COT and great video with excellent ending
Hello I have some questions on directional bias…
To start with we use market flow from top. Daily very clear north but we are at a support level; 4h south, but unlike daily price is rather rangy so north/undecided; h1 strong north, but before spike same rangy rangy action. Question is can we consider market flow of rangy PA?
Second USD index is clearly south so gu north
Third is COT. Commercials are decreasing shorts increasing longs so north for gu.
Notes are moving, but no failure swings so ignore?
So directional bias of GBP/USD is north. One should consider trading after 4h market flow is north discarding any short unless it’s a scalp.
Having directional bias in long a possible setup is forming currently which is a confluence of 38fib; R1 (which in strong trending market can be considered as support level); BRN and previous resistance levels which should act as support.
Would like some feedback on bias and current trade.
Ps buying in scary bearish candle is good practice even if trade analysis is rubbish.
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Here’s my NY open trade. with market flow, confluence support around my daily CPP. A little above OTE but hoping CPP will be strong enough support.
![http://i850.photobucket.com/albums/ab61/Rokas1989/7777777777777777777.jpg[/IMG]](http://i850.photobucket.com/albums/ab61/Rokas1989/7777777777777777777.jpg%5B/IMG%5D){kind=link}
No support offered at 1.63 figure and absence of Optimal Trade Setup sidelined… London swing nearly retraced completely which I suspect they are gunning stops under the 1.6240 level.
One trade thus far… New York session keying off Resistance levels early on… hindsight, and this one slipped by me… Euro OTE short but looked for the slide to present retracement into support levels… thus far have yet to materialize.
Looking at London Close for possible setup but not forcing the matter on the heels of a lucky Euro long from London Express.
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GLGT
1.6240 stops toasted… moving to sidelines in profits for the day.
Trade review later tonight with London session review.
Fiber reaching for its CPP… Cable dead weight on the Fiber bulls. Be careful folks…
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GLGT
Got my 2% for the week off cable today… Guess it’s time to find something else to do for the rest of the week lol
Nice! Went long on the Cable, got my OTE during the London Open. Price was at ADR Low, and previous day’s low, also was at S1 which indicated a buy zone as well, entry was at OTE, banked 85pips. =)
Regards,
Clark.
Update the second: Took the same trade Jaroon took - OTE @ CPP. Stopped out for -30; out -51 pips for the day. That’s 2 failed trades for the day, so I’m stepping back until tomorrow. Not the greatest Monday I’ve ever had, but I’m one successful trade away from breaking even completely so I’m not terribly worried.
I took the GU down from ADR high. Confluence of ADR high and R2,daily was a previous retest of that high. Placed trade right below R2 down to daily pivot point. I took the trade near the daily pivot as well and was stopped out -35. Still with the stop out I’m in profit and stood aside the rest of the day and watched GU become an anchor.
Interesting note, DXY hit a trend line and bounced up, seems a missed factor in judging a continued GU slide.
2nd Trade long at cable CPP. -30, but still up +15 on the day because of the early fiber at london open
Went long in the Asian session, not 100% pleased with why I took the trade but it happened to work out regardless