haha ok this little mistake confused me even more for a little while hahaha;) thanks a lot for your help!
but I’m still a bit confused;)
the following was my understanding:
Assuming a bullish scenario:
Type 1: Price makes lower lows, oscillator makes HIGEHR LOWS.
Type 2. Price makes HIGHER LOWS, oscillator makes lower lows.
Assuming a bearish scenario:
Type 1: Price makes higher highs, oscillator makes lower highs.
Type 2: Price makes lower highs, oscillator makes higher highs.
As it was my understanding that any divergences on the lows are bullish and all divergences on highs are bearish.
and as type 2 divergences are called “trend following” I assumed price to “point” in the direction of the HTF price move…
You use half the period you anticipate a move in… for instance you are monitoring a 20 bar/candle swing cycle [this is never absolute] half of this cycle would be 10 so a 10 period Indicator is optimal. If you are looking at a daily and the swing cycle is approximately 30 bars/candles from swing low to swing low [intermediate] half of this would be 15 period indicator.
It’s really a matter of preference but I try to dial in on the swing cycles to calibrate me oscilator to the current market environment. They don’t vary to an extreme degree but you can use 10, 14, 20 period as standards… I use these three when plotting Stochastics.
Today was wrong on Fiber, made +30 pips 1% risk
Was right on Cable, made +30 pips, half off, rest still running.
Went Long on LO for both.
Don’t need to be right, as long as you’re profitable. :60:
Completely happy with ICT’s info here second day trading this demo. First chart hour came down to the 50 fibb and stoch was showing hidden divergence to go long in the current up trend. I dropped to the M5 chart and took the OTE and scooped up +30 pips getting out at the figure.
price opened Sunday at 1.2880. Which is a key SR level from the daily chart. Notably, the low from Jan 2011 before the run up to the 1.4900 level. Big reaction here Jan last year.
1.2880 is the DS1 level as well as institutional level
Drawing a fib from Thu Low (During LO), to Friday High (during LO), 1.2880 is in the OTE retracement.
We have hidden trend continuation divergence from Thursday Low, to the low on opening on Sunday.
The AR on Sunday established DS1 as a support level and respected it. During LO on Monday, gave a retest down to that level…didn’t quite hit DS1, but within a pip. Then off to the races to the 1.38 extension of the fib used for entry. This is also the DR2 level.
I didn’t show the fib to keep the chart a little cleaner…but if you draw a fib from Fri high, to the AR low…price reached up to the 161 extension of this fib.
You could use the lo from Friday LO and have hidden divergence there too. The using Friday low, to Sunday low…you have type 1 trend reversal divergence (most recent trend on the hourly is down based on Friday’s action). Lower prices, but high stoch…
Hey ICT. I noticed you removed the Million Dollar Challenge videos from your first page. Are u continuing with that? Starting again with 2500$? Thanks!
What’s going on with the cable and fiber pairs? These pairs have been so out of sync today and yesterday…there are divergences everywhere, including S/R but some are playing out while others not really. Is it best to sit out right now?
They are out of synch a lot. Lots of divergences going back to Friday. The opening to this week has been very rangy. Even though GU has been up both days…these are pretty small moves. And EU is flirting with completing the reversal day pattern (using hidden bullish divergence at NYO from Sunday lo to yesterday high at an OTE I might add). These up moves have been a grind in general.
The way Sun-Mon-Tue look to be rangy…expecting a big day soon. Using the fractal concept…the beginning of this week looks like a days Asian Range. Looking for a judas swing at LO potentially. Although…can make cases for it to go either way…tending towards bearish at this point.
Not that there is a set in stone rule…but wouldn’t divergence on a higher timeframe be more meaningful? Would you trade a 15m divergence without on convergent factors?
I have to say the last video is yet another eye-opener. As it happened, I was playing around with divergences the last few days so this one was right in the kisser so to speak :50:
Yesterday and today it’s been raining pips as I took the liberty of looking at EURJPY/GBPJPY and AUDUSD/NZDUSD. They fit in perfectly with the latest video albeit that I used the two pairs instead of a pair and the stoch indi. Since I was only identifying the entries at the time they happened I can’t say that I would have exited at the points stated below but it does show what can (and will) be done using ICT’s explosive material :16:
Here are the entries:
AUDUSD short from 1.0560 on bearish HTF divergence with NZDUSD (AU HTF Resistance at 1.0569) at 1400 GMT. Taking profit at 1400 GMT today at 1.0430 (old Support) would have netted 130 pips; at the same time there was a bullish divergence and price has traveled 50 pips already. Notice the nice 3-push on both AUDUSD and NZDUSD.
The NZDUSD short from 0.8130 was at the same time as the AUDUSD short from 1.0560. Taking profit at 0.8060 would have netted 70 pips; not to be sniffed at methinks. Meanwhile it has traveled upwards again to the tune of 45 pips (EDIT appr. 1/3 retrace of the swing down).
For those interested in where the divergence originated: LTTL (= Look To The Left) to Oct 31st/ Nov 1st H1 chart and you will find the answer. At the time of entry, AUDUSD hadn’t penetrated resistance while NZDUSD had: bearish divergence. Also smack bang in the middle of a HTF OTE and a HTF measured move suggested the upwards move was over and the time for a short was there. Price action itself from the end of Dec onwards also suggested that it was time for a move downwards: retracements became shallower, then some consolidation and a final gasp upwards right into HTF resistance. Buying right into HTF resistance - whatta mistake to make (Italian accent required). (been there, done that…)
And then there was the case of EURJPY and GBPJPY. There was a short trade yesterday but the longs today were the nice ones. OTE inside OTE (LC swing yesterday + Asian range swing) + bullish divergence + figure entry around 0745 GMT 100.20 EJ and 119.80 GJ. The divergence can be seen on M15 and may appear to be a bit iffy however as with the other trade I was (and still am) looking into divergences drawing a line on the high and the low of a pivotal candle where one pair touches one or two lines and the other doesn’t (or at least is clearly further away from it). The 0745 GMT candles did that. Forgot to mention that the Asian session took out some stops on the short side whilst posting a HL. On the way up today there were two more bullish divergences. Profit at 1800 GMT: 121.20 (also happens to be 200%-ish) and 101.20 (measured move from low of AR). 100 pips and 140 pips later I guess the good old boys called it a day.
ICT was talking about 92 Stinger entries. I suppose that from now on they will have to cope with the odd perfectly legal (gheghe) semtex attacks on their vaults from myself. Better change my nick into SemtexTrader ! Care to join ? Bet you do…
Thanks for the insight, Michael. Really appreciate it
PS if anyone cares for screenshots after going through the hardship of deciphering the above, let me know.
PS2 objections etc. welcome as well.
In an effort to be “anticipatory”, I’d be very interested if Price forms a Judas move higher during LO to raid any stops above this key S/R level to provide an opportunity to get short. As it’s still very early, I’ll be watching the Asian Range as well as where price goes after the midnight candle to get a better perspective on my bias.
