Long term bias is short on the Daily chart, and we’re currently in the upper Trinity area:
Support has turned to resistance, with all attempts to move above being rejected (even NFP last Friday), looks like distribution:
Hourly chart:
Looks good Dodge. A couple things to add as well. I have in my notes that the pound sees weakness in Feb., though it is still early in the month also, 1.32488 is the asian session high of friday which we are told to extend into to the following week and that falls right on the .786 of the smaller OTE and the .618 of the larger OTE (both seen off the daily). I also like the 1.3184 level, I’ve had that marked for a while and it looks like a pretty significant price level, could present a good short. If it does go south, and it does make a significant low on Monday/Tuesday, then what does that mean for the rest of the week? Higher because the low would’ve been made, or lower making it a strongly bearish week? I rarely trade Mondays anymore though.
I disagree with your analysis, and I’m going to explain why.
While I think these charts with data going back to 2001 is too much for a normal intraday trade, that data looks to be supporting a short move. The bounce couldn’t close above the closest resistance, and even if it fails to go below the previous swing low, that’s still a good 750 pips of movement.
The weekly chart didn’t hit OTE on my screen
Lastly, while your 4HR chart shows a clear divergence, it has moved 600 pips since then, and seems to currently be in distribution after failing to break through resistance (as shown in my post above).
Thoughts?
Don’t like speculating on others’ analysis, but I will say that the definition of OTE was originally presented as “the midpoint between the 62% and 79% retracement levels”
after using it for over a year, i’ve found that “sweet spot” is definitely something to watch out for, but the actual 79% does of course offer the lowest risk with the highest reward. It will leave you out of the move sometimes though.
If you have an OTE on a higher timeframe, you still have to get yourself an OTE on the 5m/15m timeframe, so that your stop can be under 40 pips, and preferably 30 pips. Remember the OTE stop placement rule! (10+ pips above the H/L)
edit:
well there are other entry setups besides OTE, but the nesting OTE concept can be very powerful. You can enter on turtle-soup type false breakouts, and also find low risk entries by watching pullbacks to dealing ranges. I just added this because for the longest time I thought OTE was the only proper way of entering using ICT methods… but there’s a whole other side of this stuff that’ll give you the insight you need to get a seat for almost all the big moves 
Yes, I agree with you there. It initially looked like Traderpilot’s chart was bouncing perfectly on the OTE line, but in hindsight it’s a low resolution image and hard for me to tell. In any case, yes, it doesn’t have to reach OTE in order for it to be an entry, I stand corrected.
London Open moved price up and I went short directly on the OTE line on the 5 minute chart:
Please keep posting your ideas 
or give me your skype/email/twitter 
I thought the S1 will hold it, thats why i entered not so good. but yours was a perfect
Your use of ote is a little weird in the context of this thread. More or less you find a turning point on a higher timeframe then narrow down to a 5 min to look for an entry or a fractal etc.
The methods in this thread make your fib look like you just plotted it at random because you chose a price inside the azn range.
You were right but I dont think the methods of this thread would have pointed to your trade at the place you chose.
Hello to all,
I just want to ask if someone can upload the July Webinar 2011 video on the first page of this thread for download.I can’t seem to watch the streaming video using my internet.Someone did upload the High Time Frame Analysis-Part 1&2 and that proved to be very useful.
You are very much appreciated Guys…
I’ve seen all the instructional videos, (not the Reviews) and haven’t once seen ICT look for a fractal on the 5 minute chart. However, I have many times seen him make fibs at recent high/lows similar to how I did:
Sorry, but what pic are you talking about ? There are several indis that plot arrows on your chart…e.g. Manta’s Market Flow indi or the Fractals indi…i think there are some more in the world wild web… 
Can you show us what you mean ?
Thanks for the analysis and nice trade. To me it was an odd place to draw the fib from as well, but it worked and works for you and that is all that matters! I think fury also meant a fractal as in a repeating pattern on smaller time frame and not the actual fractal indicator on a 5min chart. I personally didn’t take any trade last night as I didn’t have time to do proper analysis and I prefer to stay away from Monday LO if I can.
I find it so frustrating right now that I placed a buy order and price missed it by 0,4 pips, and then price going EXACTLY in the direction i was hoping for… Ought i sit on my hands and do nothing? This phenomenon has happened to me several times…
I woke up to that same reality. I had an order in for the NYO kill zone buy at 3025 and I show a low of 3027. Sucks to have missed it but it’ll come again, and again, and again. I was looking at the past week’s range as somewhat of a S&D setup, looking for today’s range to bring short players into the market, and eventually end up bringing long players into the market at a break of the top of the range. I’m watching this bull flag on fiber closely, interested to see if price goes up from here or back down. I still have a bearish bias at this point.
For anyone interested, here are my trade parameters:
Stop 3010
TP1 3040
TP2 3110 (Slightly under Friday’s Asian low)
TP3 3236 (Slightly under the high of this trading range)
TP1 & 2 hit, and half way to 3 already.
I find it so frustrating right now that I placed a buy order and price missed it by 0,4 pips, and then price going EXACTLY in the direction i was hoping for… Ought i sit on my hands and do nothing? This phenomenon has happened to me several times…
ICT Rule: Don’t chase the market.
Friday I missed out on 100 pips because it was NFP and I don’t trade NFP…today I missed my entry by 2 PIPS and missed out on another 100 Pips…OK…tryin to stay calm…:20:
sounds like more than a few people were aiming for that 3025 support… for some reason I saw more significance in the 3040 level.
and then the OTE had 3040 pegged to the pip at NYO…nobody caught that???
edit:
please disregard this if you were talking about Cable… I just realized you didn’t specify which pair. Cable looked a little less forgiving on the OTE this morning 
Can I just add that in the summer webinar posted last week, ICT said that he would enter at the 62% retracement and adjust his risk accordingly IF he were entering on a big news release. This is the first time I had heard this, and feel it is something worthy of note while we are discussing OTE and various entries.
My trad bias was aimed at a raid of the stops from last Wednesday’s LO low of 3025.
I have set up too many trades in this manner that have just missed their entry by a pip or two. From now on I will be adding 5 pips to my entry to try to get in on the trades that stop and turn just before the previous high/low.
This is just a conceptual question on your reasoning for trade bias. But as the price didn’t reach wednesday’s low, was that accomplished (stop raid?). Presumably there were a very significant number of stops just ABOVE the low of last wednesday? Btw, this isn’t just a question for you, anyone can answer :).