WOOO haha, for the past week Iāve been actually looking into a lot of financial math and that type of analysis. My trading has been going really well. Since everything has come together and really clicked in a profitable way its been an almost 180 degree turn in my demo account. So much so that I dont even worry about how much iām making but i just let it flow if you know what I mean? I did a few quick calculations and saw that even just getting 10% a month would be extremely outstanding and that considering iām making much beyond that gives me a sort of āpeace of mindā since I dont worry as much when one or two trades dont work out, or if there isnt a setup I feel comfortable with then I donāt ever overtrade anymore.
but back to what Iāve been exploring, more than anything iāve been looking at stochastic processes, stochastic calculus, random walk, markov chains, brownian motion etc. Obviously this is already being used in the financial markets and Iāve been exploring this for two reasons. Firstly because I love physics and since Iām going to be going to university for physics Iāll end up studying at least brownian motion as well as some stochastic calculus/processes, and also because of the fact that something of that nature is already being used in the markets.
The other thing Iāve been researching/experimenting is what you talked about in post #649 the related pairs and making EURxxx, USDxxx, CHFxxx, etc. charts.
have you checked out any of the stochastic/markov chains type things relativity? what are you thoughts?
and to anyone reading this whole thread from start to end
GOOD JOB!
and dont give up no matter how confused you may be, just keep at it and remember that a good indicator strips down the market for you instead of covering it up
Bro, it was still ātodayā for meā¦
Yes, I believe much in your study about weekly extremesā¦ just wanted to know if it was weekly lowā¦ or if it was weekly high LOL
btwā¦youāve just made another 20 pisā¦
Regarding volumes, (I donāt have those lines (Maās ?) you have inā¦) how can one investigate various brokers? Demo datas are not the same of live datasā¦
Which problem should be solved by meā¦? Iāve not your skillā¦ I can solve nothing!
I appreciated your sharing about Barros swing and other things . But something still missing here. I guess that thing you said you would be frustrated if talking outloud. WAVE ANALYSIS
Otherwise i still starring at H1 swing hour and hour. How can i guess the next h1 wave coming without basic of WA ? Please, leak it out, we have a biggest thread here, why dont make it double
I said your sharing quite good but the fist thing you should talk about Wave Analysis first not Barrosā, he just one man in that particular field. That why when you sharing in somewhere else, not everyone cant get it. Here, much thank to Arzul who made you inspired
Btw, i not beg, again, the moment i read this thread , i know that about WA. The fist post. You just said you dont want to share because it was so complicated. Now i know that you dont want to talk about anyway. Without WA, the other things not enough for making decision (MP, tick volumeā¦). You said you like to wait people having self reflection fist. I agree. I still on though process on the first post and not going to other istuff here and I realized that all about WA.
Last hing, its me who brought out GBP recently because seeing so many shorting GBP. I try to share about sentiment index. Some contribution here. Try to inform that GBP and EUR down when the second round of election finished . The new guy would not support EUR.
When you speak about WA you mean Elliot Waves?
I donāt like EWA, coz is too subjective. Is said that if you put a chart in front of 100 EWA expertsā¦you have 100 diferrent answersā¦ :18:
Regarding Volumes, it seems to me that low volume just confirms the āboxā ready for breakoutsā¦ and is a known fact that asian session has lower volumeā¦ For what Iāve understood until now, I donāt think it could help us too much.
Anyway, given youāre talking about sessions, if you tink it could be useful, there are MP indi splittable āper sessionāā¦
I think one of the best statistic youāve made is weekly high/low on mondayā¦ starting from this one, and looking @ your MP (and MTF context and Barros with LRC) and adding S/D zones by Templeton gives me a more clear view of the market, helping to understand its behavioral patternsā¦
kay so Iāve been having some doubts about whether I really am understanding everything, all today Iāve been re-reading the whole thread to validate my current thoughts about the market.
I think I have a good grasp of the concepts but I need to spend some time really getting my head around the whole what the big boys are doing concept. Iāve been getting a bit more drawdowns so thats why I think it hasnāt been cemented in my mind very well yet.
as an answer to your questions in an effort to keep my progress going here goes
1-how do we anticipate movement of price without consideration of direction?
If I understood properly its how do we know when price will move wether it be up or down. This can be anticipated by knowing that at certain hours/days of the week or month liquidity/volume is increased due to there being more people in the market. Knowing when those moments happen means we know when price is most likely to break out. (this is an application of your statistic you found that deal with price action happening most on mondays and wednesdays, as well as seeing volume/liquidity change throughout the day.
2-Are There models that actually allow us to anticipate price movement?
yes, looking at the changes in volume/liquidity as well as statistics of which days price tends to make new highs or lows relative to different time frames(eg, new high in 1 hr tf might not be a new high in 5hr tf)
3-then when questions 2 & 3 area answered, then we can start asking about direction. What is considered as direction?
4-why are we talking about direction when we are actually a directionless market?
answering both at the same time
first weāll consider the stock market, when the stock market is moving in the up direction this means that people are confident in the economy and are therefore putting more money into equities/companies and this is good. If it is moving in the down direction this means that people are NOT confident in the economy and are therefore taking their money out of equities/companies and this is bad.
in forex if a pair is going up this can mean a few things, its not necessarily a good or bad thing what can it mean, taking for example EUR/USD
āpeople gain confidence in eur, lose confidence in usd
=EUR/USD goes up
āpeople lose confidence in eur, gain confidence in usd
=EUR/USD goes down
āpeople gain confidence in eur, BUT gain more confidence in usd
=EUR/USD goes down (even though both economies are doing good, one is doing better than the other)
āpeople gain confidence in eur, gain less confidence in usd even though usd is still doing good
=EUR/USD goes up
āpeople lose confidence in eur, but lose more confidence in usd
=EUR/USD goes up (because eur has more confidence)
āpeople lose a lot of confidence in eur, and lose only a bit of confidence in usd
=EUR/USD goes down
this is what is considered direction, it is whichever currency peopleās interests flow to(more confidence) and from (less confidence) this is still assuming the supply of money is stable with no bank interventions, of course when banks intervene its a bit different
I think the reason we talk about direction is because weāre still focused on a lower level and what we actually need to be looking into is price at the EURxxx, USDxxx, etc because then we can be looking at a directional market while taking into account where people/big boys are flocking to.
in conclusion for now Iām gonna be focusing more at price charts for EURxxx, USDxxx, etcā¦ and trying to find out more where the big players are moving to with the charts for EURxx, USDxxx etc.
Science (rational hemisphere) and Art (emotional hemisphere) usually fight one against otherā¦ but succes comes when one is able to integrate those emispheres, and emotions doesnāt blocks anymore the rationale side, but enhance it working togheter to reach the goalā¦
Honestly, I still thank you for statistics which i knew valuable but almost left in dust for a long time
About swing, it is still hard to consider where the price extreem and it all ready going to retrace in a second or not considering 20 pip stoploss which very tight and later you realized it all about inside swings. Althought we have some statistic here.ACtually I see barrosā valuable for for taking profit, not initiating a position
I was amazed that you did not use at least 2 monitors and did not pay attention to the sessions of day trading. Glad that you bring it out later on
As i mentioned ealier, i am an 1- minute chart trader and eager to learn for bigger time framing . You see me alway talking about lagging behind of my learning curve on this thread.Actually I was very serious on the first post of this topic and later i saw 1 or 2 problems. That is about WA and sentiment so i decide to contribute the later.The former , i did wonder how far you would know about WA because actually I hate this theme. Robert Prechter wrong about every siginficant move of the market
For me, one minute chart couple with sentiment index and the swing you provided here,a very good combination for me. Stastics give me a bit of peace of mind
Because of this thread, i have a chance to read TheRumpledoneās which good for me as well.
P/s:when i gather all the ideas and try to copy and learn the system you design here (wave, swing, MP, em5, MP, paretoā¦) and seeing it in my platform. Bit of messy up comparing the 1 minute i use .Later on I realized that something missing here. Your system somwewhat complicated but to be succefull it need a quick hand as well. Trading 1 minute chart,I dont care much about direction of price. The only thing i need is votality for moving it. Almost the same when trading option which dont need even a naked chart for trading instruments
When i hit this thread, I got amazed again when you said just 1 monitor and barros swing. I talked myself that was great. I would trade with 1 monitor of EUR swing as well. I would be free.
Before that, I got 4 monitors. I need seeing big.News, USDxxx, EURxx, bond, sp500 gold oil, you name it to get a clue from the market interaction. About the sessions there are 8 for 4 hours each. So i take 4 hour pivot point just reminding me of those session:
Asian market very wide due to variation of all banks in Asia. Prices hit both of direction
London is a truly setter where real transactions being made. After lunch, usually liquidated with LIBOR fixing
NY for big news and speculation. Later option and future expires. EU closed, liquidity dried up. 4PM EST Chicago going closed, they usually talk to the guys in Sydney and Tokyo. Manipulation here to hit stoploss
The Sydney guys will clear the mess from order books due to big news in NY
Now i love seeing my 4 monitors again. That great to see my way back. A full circle
P/s: about EUR and GBP, it is consistent, not conflicted. FA makes EUR down but sentiment (TA) GBP up ? If you were bankers how can you deal with that ? Just think. They will try to make all thing higher before crash but on the course they will fail all attempt at longing. So how we know, just look at the chart. It could not explain, just watching and you will understand the way they move the market. They will very active to participate 2 weeks form now on.The same dilema with Gold. People over long XAU. How bankers can make XAU down at the same time EUR and GBP up ? Think about the way they will creatively make it out. They are artists as well
Many thanks, I see something in your charts which seem to quantify what I am using. Can you post a few more when convenient, do not need to be live. Need more samples to see and confirm which may be a easier way to pick turns and then confirm via your MP.
Well just an update as in my last post I said I was unsure if I had gotten all the concepts properly and all yesterday I was reading through the thread and I realized that I understood the concepts but I just wasnāt implementing them properly so I stayed up pretty late just staring at a naked chart thinking through what was happening on the other end (aka at the big banks).
This led me to really get a good grasp of what really needs to be seen. And so I set a task for myself. Iād trade with a naked chart using pure concepts. This morning I made my first few trades and I gotta say its pretty strange. The way I was trading before was trying to catch the big 1d level swings. This was nice because Iād catch a good 100 pips to ~300 / trade but the problem was that it would take a good week to get that and a lot of the time I either wouldnāt be awake to catch the swing or id be busy working so Iād miss it. This morning trading the chart naked and using 1HR for entry as opposed to daily Iāve already made about half of what Iād be making every week with my old system just in a 3 hour span. This way Iām just trying to catch the bounces that happen every few hours as opposed to every few days lol. looking at it now this is actually supported by relativityās statistics about which swings have the best pip/ time efficiency.
Weāll see after a month of trying this out how it works out.
zoom out as in, i was hoping to see as much of candles on the chart as possible with your MP :). So far it seem to confirm to what i think i am seeing more often than not. It seem MP is a bit similar to what Barros swings can do, just that MP seem to project forwards while Barros swing need to wait for price to form before drawing the swings to confirm what i see.
if there are more samples, i can be more certain. a question, the MP you have now is the same as the one which you have released? the only difference is that you have added in the extra std deviations levels to project the possible breakout, retracement levels?
Hi Rel. Iām still here (lurking in the background lol).
Iām happy with the idea of the senior TF for perspective and a lower TF for entering trades. I just canāt quite get clear exactly what the difference between the Trading TF and the Entry TF is.
Is itā¦
Trading TF = the swings you ideally want to catch
Entry TF = monitor these to see when the Trading is likely to change/stop or start trending
for projections, may be Ray wave? i am not sure too. What do you mean by average candle struture of 1/4,1/2, 1/4. You mean the average range of a candle?
one step ahead of you relativity last weekend I started archiving and compiling the thread in case it somehow gets shut down or something ill send it to you once its finished.
I got the thread all screen shot already Iām just typing out the major parts with some of my own notes and pictures from the thread
haha, for the past week Iāve been actually looking into a lot of financial math and that type of analysis. My trading has been going really well. Since everything has come together and really clicked in a profitable way its been an almost 180 degree turn in my demo account. So much so that I dont even worry about how much iām making but i just let it flow if you know what I mean? I did a few quick calculations and saw that even just getting 10% a month would be extremely outstanding and that considering iām making much beyond that gives me a sort of āpeace of mindā since I dont worry as much when one or two trades dont work out, or if there isnt a setup I feel comfortable with then I donāt ever overtrade anymore.
