Mmmmmh, I don’t like this percentage… So much study & efforts & statistics & millions of screen time hours…just to get a little more than a coin flip?!?
I can’t believe that!! :o
And, as you know, in Profesional Poker a"coin flip " chance is enough to go “all in”…
Each of 90$ strategy sold in the web, or found on many forums, can reach such a percentage…
In summary, you’re saying that you gain a lot of bucks just applying proper Trade & Money Management…!?!
% win rate needs to be put in context of avgerge gain to loss. There have been plently of profitable traders with a win rates as low at 20%. Someone who is 80% correct with average profits of 20 pips and average losses of 80 pips is no better than someone who is only 20% correct but has average losses of only 20 pips and average profits of 80 pips. Both are the same. % win is only half of the story.
I agree with you, and Rel explaination about how he trades…
I know what is R/R Rate, and what is it’s role in trading success.
What I said is: with all the efforts made by Rel (Ideas, Study, Test, Statistics, Forward Testing and so on…) I expected a better win percentage… i.e. to be right in analysis and, consequently, to have more (good) winning trades…that’s all. 
Oh, sorry Az, I see what you mean. Oh well it makes me feel a bit less disheartened about my win rate I suppose :54:
Rel, I hope you don’t mind if I post some stats I put together. I’m still trying to draw conclusions from them. I’d be interested if you had any thoughts about them.
The graphs info has come from 400 days of H1 candle data (EUR/USD) and the time is GMT+2
The first graph shows what time the highest price of the day occurred for each day. The second graph is the same but for the lowest price.
The colours just indicate the day of the week in case any conclusions can be drawn (day 1 = Mon, 2 =Tue… )
I’m not too sure how much can be concluded from the high graph, but we can say that the high of the day is generally in the European session and it definitely aint a good idea to try picking the day’s top or bottom around 06:00:00 !
The second graph with the lows is maybe more interesting the 17:00:00 spike is quiet obvious. This hour finishes when Europe only has half an hour left to trade and it’s time to take profits and create the looser’s wick.
The next two graphs might be better. These show highs and lows in a rolling 5 hour period. Again it’s more obvious from the lows but there are spikes around the open and close of the European and the US session.
The spike at 03:00:00 is a bit confusing to me. I expected it to be near an open or close of the Asian session but it seems nearly in the middle isn’t it? Don’t know if anyone can help with that one?
I don’t know how useful the info is for practical use. I did do some experimenting running backtests around trading these times of price extremes and the results actually weren’t bad at all, especially with some stops and position sizing added, really quite good. I was surprised, so hopefully being aware of these times may help a little in discretionary trading too.
Ohhhhhh…my God! Another statistical genius…
You guys will drive me crazy…!!! I barely know how to do simple additions… :18:
Great job bro…:35:
Hi Rel. I’m not immediately sure what I can see from the session candles you’ve created but I’ll give it some thought.
In the mean time I was wondering if you could help again with getting absolutely clear on the basics?
I am still trading badly and loosing pips pretty much every day. I was trying to trade with whatever concepts I could take from this thread and I was losing money but quite slowly (getting better!). I thought to understand better I should go and read some stuff that you read. I spent some time studying The Nature of Trends. I then came back to trading, marked my waves (X A B C, A1, measured the waves e.t.c) and increased my stops from 20 pips to where Ray Barros suggests and I obviously got it wrong and lost a LOT of pips (not a lot of money thankfully). Ray Barros is very difficult to emulate. I am going back to 20 pips as a stop.
To help me out, could I clarify some things about MTF analysis again please?
I have set up three charts as follows;
Senior TF – W1 Barros Swings viewed on a D1 candle chart
Used to see the higher timeframe trend to tell us whether to favour long or short positions.
Trading TF – D1 Barros Swings viewed on a H4 candle chart.
Main viewing TF, Analysis starts here. Look fro potential set-ups. For longer term trades, try to catch the whole D1 swing.
Entry TF – H5 Barros Swings viewed on a H1 Candle chart.
Switch to this when preparing to enter a trade.
I’m not sure if this is best or if my Trading TF should be H5 Swings and my Entry TF should be H1 Swings?? The above is how I have seen your screens set up (I think) but you also said trying to catch H5 swings was more time efficient than trying to catch D1 swings so I’m not sure which might be best???
The Senior TF analysis.
I understand that a W1 Swing means that D1 is in a trend. Even if W1 is a correction, it’s still a new trend for D1.
So, I’m looking to the W1 Swing line to tell me the trend of D1. The problem is, by the time a new W1 swing is created, it often looks like it’s ready to end.
Looking at the EUR/USD Senior TF now, I see two possible ways to interpret it.
I think you said to follow the W1 Swing direction but watch out for signs of weakness. The problem is, if I look for weakness I see it everywhere, just like the number 216 from Pi LOL (great film by the way).
Could you help me out with this and let me know your current analysis of EUR/USD Senior TF??
yeah I’ve been doing from the first post forwards, I’m at around page 25 of writing out and commenting lol
Thanks very much Rel. That’s a big help.
Hello DoctorJ,
you have to remember that while Relativity has done an excellent job in creating the swing indicator, it is not really the actual construction of Barros Swings. While Barros Swing is a big part of Ray Barros’s trading, it is not the only thing and there are some parts which are not disclosed in his book.
best regards.
Hi Guandi. Yep, Agreed. And allthough Barros is very hard to emumate I found his book good. He really sets out the fractural nature of the market well. I also like the fact he knows there is a problem with the subjective nature of wave analisys, so he goes right ahead and creates his own solution to solve it. Very much like what Rel does. He doesn’t like the fact that something doesn’t quite work so he activly looks for this own method to resolve the problem. A good way to work I think.
Cheers for your updated message Rel
Hello Relativity,
you are doing great, i am just trying to catch up and i am grateful that you shared so much (of course i would not mind if are going to share the updated MP indicator :-)). Yes Options are very powerful, can you elaborate why Saliba is controversial? another good options author will be Jeffery Augen, a good intro author will be Mark Wolfinger on options.
Btw Relativity are you familiar with the works of James Bickford on waves analysis?
Best regards.
Hello Relativity,
fully understand. James Bickford does something similiar to what you did, he run stats test on the swings, and i think very few seem to catch on what he did.
Not sure what is your level of expertise on options, Mark’s stuff may be be basic for you. Augen’s stuff is more advanced.
best regards.
Hello Relativity,
if it is about the greeks, then this book is one of the better ones : Trading Option Greeks by Dan Passarelli. You can get it from libraries.
Hope it help.
Gotcha! Nice Price Action painted.
well for one I see that every session has a volume spike, being 1,3,5,b respective to sydney, asia, london, NY and from what I can see since the 5 and b or london and NY volume spikes are in the NY bar it seems to be the defining bar of where price wants to be because it looks to have mostly the widest difference from open price to close price. ( though the one you marked off doesnt have that but the other ones on that chart do)
Hi guys, I’m far from your new discoveries…
Just wanna know if today’s was a SL hunting or a Long Liquidation Break stopped by OTF buyers… :33:
hey az I was actually wondering this too, I saw a huge spike in volume/big move in pretty much every pair at that time (it actually helped some of my trades :D) even the ones that arent denominated in USD, I guess it shows how much influence USD has in the market because I know a bunch of fundamentals numbers were coming out around that time, also maybe it had something to do with the mainland european bank holiday?
I am now trading only with CC and BB. My chart is clean and so is my mind
