Immunity Passports?
How will we know when it’s safe to go out again?
A proposed solution is to undertake universal testing to determine a) whether people are still infectious, either as asymptomatic carriers or recovering individuals and b) whether people have, by dint of previous exposure (either overt or unsuspected), acquired immunity to COVID-19.
Unfortunately, we’re not there yet. The only available tests check for the presence of the virus, NOT its antibodies which confer immunity.
And we’re woefully behind on testing. Also, it took a long time, sometimes days, for tests to be processed and results reported. According to ScienceDaily, it’s estimated that, on average, “only 6% of actual SARS-CoV-2 infections have been detected worldwide.” So, a lot of people may have already had it.
Newly available rapid testing kits that are similar to Rapid-Strep tests are coming online, but their use hasn’t ramped up sufficiently.
There’s been a lot of media buzz about the antibody tests for COVID-19. Theoretically, a positive test in the absence of active virus should confer an “Immunity Passport” that would enable masses of people to get back to school, work and normal social routines.
But early reports are that these tests are performing unreliably. Rumor has it that the U.K., which ordered millions of these prototype antibody test kits at great expense, can’t even use them. So, it may be weeks—hopefully not months—before these tests are properly vetted and then mass-produced.
The sooner we nail our testing paradigm, the sooner we can pull our economy out of its current spiral. Until then, I, like everyone else, will have to maintain social distancing. Until we know more, it’s a case of “better safe than sorry.”