Here is some news from Europe which you may not be aware of
and a short comment from Sweden
Lets see what our members think
That’s odd - I can’t find the “Build a poll” button - so seemingly we can’t stay anonymous as I would like.
OK I found it so you can vote anonymously if you wish
However the question is
a) - Can the EU survive this ?
b) - Will it have to change - and if so in what ways ?
c) - Can those 10s of thousands of hugely paid Beaurocrats survive if their jobs are taken away and they have to compete for proper jobs ?
The EU will Survive in it’s present form in the long term
It’s about Much more than that mate - It’s about Nations re-erecting their borders within the “EU” - It’s about the total failure of this beaurocratic monster to show any form of leadership or support for the parts which are severely affected - Can you imagine one of teh states in the USA being refused assistance by the Federal Government - like Italy, SPain and Greece have by their so-called “EU Government” ?
It’s about People redsicovering Patriotism, People rejectng Identity Politics, - In short it is about “THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE”
People are asking - “If they’re not there for us in our hour of desperate need - What is the point in having them at all ?”
Interesting that whilst “They” are desperate to stall The Trade negotiations with the UK - because of the beer-bug - “They” are not apparently too busy to put the “New” applicants on hold !
I wonder why ANY of those countries would not be clamouring to remove their borders with such a wealthy bloc and get free access for their people to the highly paid jobs and Welfare States of places like your own country ? - Interesting to see By the Way that your own Ireland is paid on average £500 a month more than England !
And that that difference in itself is More than the Average monthly income of those you are so willing to receive “Into the fold”
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And the good news for UK folk worried about what is happening within the EU (cannot figure why, thought they’d left ) - probable outcome is now re-named ‘Covid Bonds’ - seeking to settle same at upcoming summit.
Not many years ago Ireland’s economy was very similar to the poorer countries, the general consensus is that the EU provided the environment to improve.
Anyways the good thing is that the UK is out and whether it is trade on wto or otherwise will matter little in the post-coronavirus economy - the old saying of strength in numbers is what will count.
Stay safe all, as President Trump pointed out - this is no flu and it is vicious.
When thinking about this topic my mind wandered to the UK’s response economically to this crisis.
Firms can suspend (furlough) their employees - pay them 80% of their wages and be paid back by the Govt…
Reality check - the scheme started Feb28 - now April 2nd and the on-line portal to claim this money is not yet even open - promised around the end of the month or thereabouts.
So what do small businesses do in the meantime - they are the back bone of the UK economy - no sales because they are closed but yet still pay overheads.
Simple - they can access a UK Govt backed loan at their bank says the Finance minister.
Reality check - some businesses have been quoted 30% interest rate, others have been refused based on last years p/l yet others have been told to wait for a decision. Those who have been offered a loan at around 7% must offer personal guarantees.
How can a business owner guarantee anything without as Mervyn King puts it an exit strategy.
thefcn.org reckon 18% of businesses will run out of cash within the next 4 weeks - they will not be around in the post coronavirus economy.
Excellent thinker Douglas Murray - considers the issues facing the “EU Project” and the reassertion of teh Nation Sates of Europe and indeed Worldwide.
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Just an update to thread title and any Euro trader that might be interested - EU finance ministers didn’t come to an agreement - close but not there yet - only the Dutch now causing the problem.
If there is agreement then Reuters figure that the EU plus the National govts would add up to the largest fiscal support ever - even larger than the US one.
EU are now about ready to order some ventilators to be distributed among those who joined the scheme in mid march and Chief medical Officer resigns in disgust
Spain & Italy still being left out to dry.
Mauro Ferrari resigns as Chief Medical Officer having lost faith in the EU Project.
Followed by the comment on the Video Conference @peterma refers to above (16 more HOURS of haggling by phone without agreement - This time)
Yep, took even more hours - the ongoing discussions were left the finance ministers - they have finally (on the 3rd attempt) agreed a compromise.
It’s a package worth around 500b - the biggie has been shifted over to the leaders - this one will not be called ‘coronabond’ instead watch out for the term Recovery Fund - size of that one yet to be decided.
Have you heard the European Union is on the verge of destruction?
So asked politico in October 2015 - yes, I answered, quite a few times.
The EU monster is falling apart, and has never looked so grim
Said the Telegraph 2 years later - yeah, I know.
But surely you heard Le Maire say EU is falling apart before our eyes - yeah back a couple of years ago, I heard.
But I mean did you not hear from the Commission this very question: Is this the worst crisis in European public opinion?
Yep they asked that back in 2013 - their own barometer was low but was lower in 1997-8.
They have a barometer??? - yeah, they have everything you could think of.
No ammo for ECB right now? - not what the ECB is saying last week - they are talking in the region on 1.5tn
Anyways as always the proof is in the eating - are US companies taking up the loan offers, are they being admined via the lending banks, are they using the usual lending criteria, are US companies confident enough to take up, will they use the funds to cover losses only.
Going forward it’s down to business and consumer confidence - if both remain positive then both Europe and US will rise from this and more quickly than many suggest.
Here in the UK the govt has thrown money at the problem - but they haven’t got it right, the banks remain in control of that money and are using normal commercial judgement in an abnormal environment - result is that many sme’s are going to the wall - they will not be here when the dust settles.
There is much of value in your post @TradingPanda and much which merits discussion - The single most huge financial problem the EU has is the one you highlight here - the motto of “Ever closer union” which they espouse makes the capability of the Sovereign Nations they have emasculated into mere vassals to address their own problems an impossibility without disregarding the “Rules” which ALL have now done in erecting borders within the EU itself.
You are correct in that the adotion of the “Euro” was an incredibly BAD move and the thing is we were well aware of this after 1192 ! when Soros “Broke the Bank of England” - by selling the Pound short. In fact the Germman Bankers were highly blameworthy in this process and their actions were equally - if not More detrimental to Italy.
This Documentary shows exactly how we were pre-warned of the intentions of the German Bankers and how they viewed “Agreements” between the “Partners” !
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The fact of the matter is that in the era before the European Economic Community morphed into the “European Union” we Brits were very happy to fly over to Spain, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Italy for cheap sunny holidays and IF (When) these countries remove themselves from the constraints of the Monetary Union and release their own currencies on the market, they can again become the playgrounds - not only of we Brits, but of teh Germans, Russians, Dutch etc etc.
The huge problem with this is that the Greman Banks have “generously” lent them massive amounts of “Money” denominated in Euros which at the moment, they are insisting one being paid back in Euros - Just the same as the IMF and USA did to teh Banana Republics.
However the Good point is that with interest rates as low as they currently are and with the Euro being effectively divided into two “currencies” - depending on who the “Debtor” is - There should be a way for Southern Europe to extricate themselves albeit with some pain.
With monetary Union, I can’t see any hope for the fine citizens of teh Countries of Southern Europe at all !
The short version: a 540 billion-euro ($590 billion) safety net for member states, companies and workers. The key takeaway is that the wealthy northern states were mostly able to impose their will.
There was no agreement on shared borrowing via so-called coronabonds, and access to credit lines from the bloc’s bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, will come with some (admittedly weak) strings attached.
After weeks of saying it was coronabonds or bust, and of renouncing the ESM, the Italian government will struggle to sell this compromise to its citizens, even if there is enough ambiguity for Rome to try.
More important, the agreement calls for the creation of a “Recovery Fund” in the EU budget that would be “temporary, targeted and commensurate with the extraordinary costs” of the crisis to “help spread them over time.”
It will be up to national leaders to decide the fund’s “sources of financing” and whether it involves “innovative financial instruments,” which is code for coronabonds.
There’s little reason to think the second battle of the coronabonds will end differently, but remarks by French, Italian, Austrian and Dutch officials demonstrate that it will nonetheless be fought.
Europe has survived so many brushes with death in the past decade. Why should this time be different?
The recent weeks have seen a number of developments that strike at the very heart of the European project:
In a clear breach of EU treaties, governments around Europe took back control over their borders.
Against European law, some governments prohibited the export of respirators and surgical masks.
Governments said FU to the EU rule book and took back control over their fiscal policies in order to increase budget deficits.
So now that they’ve taken back control of their borders, laws, and budgets, individual European countries now have just one common thing to unite them: the euro.
The European Union may not be dead, but the EU that we that we have grown used to certainly doesn’t exist any more.
The obvious challenge today is simple: some of Europe’s leaders—most notably Giuseppe Conte of Italy, but also Emmanuel Macron in France and Pedro Sánchez of Spain—are pushing hard for the issuance of pan-European bonds and the creation of a pan-European finance ministry.
To Germany this is not only anathema, but unconstitutional. So, at its most basic level, what we have is a high-stakes poker game between Conte and German chancellor Angela Merkel.
Conte knows Merkel’s red line—no joint-bonds—and also knows that to avoid a crisis Merkel will likely accept anything that stops short of this line
Eurogroup president Mario Centeno on the “recovery fund”: “We need to prepare the ground for a recovery plan, all ministers agreed we need to design something new, there was broad support for the setting up of a recovery fund, with the additional funding via the EU budget”
So exactly how much are we talking about?
As for the size and timing EU finance ministers will “seek guidance” from EU leaders. This will be a very deep and temporary crisis, the depth and size will depend on the duration of the lockdown. “The fund must be available as soon as we start the recovery.”
Merkel’s right hand man has been Weidmann for many years - mentioned him here back in 2015:-
From the BB March 21:
*On Wednesday shortly before midnight, the European Central Bank (ECB) took out its “bazooka” in the form of an asset purchase programme totalling €750 billion. How did the ECB Governing Council, of which you are a member as Bundesbank President, come to this decision? * During a telephone conference. We discussed it in great depth, various points of view were put forward, plus a variety of possible solutions were proposed. But, in the end, we made a decision. Despite any differences regarding individual points, we all agree that we need to take action and that wide-reaching measures are crucial. Now it is a matter of implementing the programme in an appropriate way.
The EU is cumbersome by default, this trait is often mistook as indecision, management by committee is inherently slow but for the EU there really is no other way.
Edit: Jens Weidmann interview here for those interested:
I feel like it’s a relic from the past.
And every country can independently regulate its economic and political situation.
I think that a little more time will pass and we will forget about what EU is.
