No ammo for ECB right now? - not what the ECB is saying last week - they are talking in the region on 1.5tn
Anyways as always the proof is in the eating - are US companies taking up the loan offers, are they being admined via the lending banks, are they using the usual lending criteria, are US companies confident enough to take up, will they use the funds to cover losses only.
Going forward it’s down to business and consumer confidence - if both remain positive then both Europe and US will rise from this and more quickly than many suggest.
Here in the UK the govt has thrown money at the problem - but they haven’t got it right, the banks remain in control of that money and are using normal commercial judgement in an abnormal environment - result is that many sme’s are going to the wall - they will not be here when the dust settles.
There is much of value in your post @TradingPanda and much which merits discussion - The single most huge financial problem the EU has is the one you highlight here - the motto of “Ever closer union” which they espouse makes the capability of the Sovereign Nations they have emasculated into mere vassals to address their own problems an impossibility without disregarding the “Rules” which ALL have now done in erecting borders within the EU itself.
You are correct in that the adotion of the “Euro” was an incredibly BAD move and the thing is we were well aware of this after 1192 ! when Soros “Broke the Bank of England” - by selling the Pound short. In fact the Germman Bankers were highly blameworthy in this process and their actions were equally - if not More detrimental to Italy.
This Documentary shows exactly how we were pre-warned of the intentions of the German Bankers and how they viewed “Agreements” between the “Partners” !
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The fact of the matter is that in the era before the European Economic Community morphed into the “European Union” we Brits were very happy to fly over to Spain, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Italy for cheap sunny holidays and IF (When) these countries remove themselves from the constraints of the Monetary Union and release their own currencies on the market, they can again become the playgrounds - not only of we Brits, but of teh Germans, Russians, Dutch etc etc.
The huge problem with this is that the Greman Banks have “generously” lent them massive amounts of “Money” denominated in Euros which at the moment, they are insisting one being paid back in Euros - Just the same as the IMF and USA did to teh Banana Republics.
However the Good point is that with interest rates as low as they currently are and with the Euro being effectively divided into two “currencies” - depending on who the “Debtor” is - There should be a way for Southern Europe to extricate themselves albeit with some pain.
With monetary Union, I can’t see any hope for the fine citizens of teh Countries of Southern Europe at all !
The short version: a 540 billion-euro ($590 billion) safety net for member states, companies and workers. The key takeaway is that the wealthy northern states were mostly able to impose their will.
There was no agreement on shared borrowing via so-called coronabonds, and access to credit lines from the bloc’s bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, will come with some (admittedly weak) strings attached.
After weeks of saying it was coronabonds or bust, and of renouncing the ESM, the Italian government will struggle to sell this compromise to its citizens, even if there is enough ambiguity for Rome to try.
More important, the agreement calls for the creation of a “Recovery Fund” in the EU budget that would be “temporary, targeted and commensurate with the extraordinary costs” of the crisis to “help spread them over time.”
It will be up to national leaders to decide the fund’s “sources of financing” and whether it involves “innovative financial instruments,” which is code for coronabonds.
There’s little reason to think the second battle of the coronabonds will end differently, but remarks by French, Italian, Austrian and Dutch officials demonstrate that it will nonetheless be fought.
Europe has survived so many brushes with death in the past decade. Why should this time be different?
The recent weeks have seen a number of developments that strike at the very heart of the European project:
In a clear breach of EU treaties, governments around Europe took back control over their borders.
Against European law, some governments prohibited the export of respirators and surgical masks.
Governments said FU to the EU rule book and took back control over their fiscal policies in order to increase budget deficits.
So now that they’ve taken back control of their borders, laws, and budgets, individual European countries now have just one common thing to unite them: the euro.
The European Union may not be dead, but the EU that we that we have grown used to certainly doesn’t exist any more.
The obvious challenge today is simple: some of Europe’s leaders—most notably Giuseppe Conte of Italy, but also Emmanuel Macron in France and Pedro Sánchez of Spain—are pushing hard for the issuance of pan-European bonds and the creation of a pan-European finance ministry.
To Germany this is not only anathema, but unconstitutional. So, at its most basic level, what we have is a high-stakes poker game between Conte and German chancellor Angela Merkel.
Conte knows Merkel’s red line—no joint-bonds—and also knows that to avoid a crisis Merkel will likely accept anything that stops short of this line
Eurogroup president Mario Centeno on the “recovery fund”: “We need to prepare the ground for a recovery plan, all ministers agreed we need to design something new, there was broad support for the setting up of a recovery fund, with the additional funding via the EU budget”
So exactly how much are we talking about?
As for the size and timing EU finance ministers will “seek guidance” from EU leaders. This will be a very deep and temporary crisis, the depth and size will depend on the duration of the lockdown. “The fund must be available as soon as we start the recovery.”
Merkel’s right hand man has been Weidmann for many years - mentioned him here back in 2015:-
From the BB March 21:
*On Wednesday shortly before midnight, the European Central Bank (ECB) took out its “bazooka” in the form of an asset purchase programme totalling €750 billion. How did the ECB Governing Council, of which you are a member as Bundesbank President, come to this decision? * During a telephone conference. We discussed it in great depth, various points of view were put forward, plus a variety of possible solutions were proposed. But, in the end, we made a decision. Despite any differences regarding individual points, we all agree that we need to take action and that wide-reaching measures are crucial. Now it is a matter of implementing the programme in an appropriate way.
The EU is cumbersome by default, this trait is often mistook as indecision, management by committee is inherently slow but for the EU there really is no other way.
Edit: Jens Weidmann interview here for those interested:
I feel like it’s a relic from the past.
And every country can independently regulate its economic and political situation.
I think that a little more time will pass and we will forget about what EU is.
Here is some of the content of the ‘grovelling’ apololgy:
Ursula von der Leyen truth is needed to overcome the Covid-19 pandemic – including political honesty.:
too many were not there on time when Italy needed a helping hand at the very beginning,” Ursula von der Leyen told the European parliament. “And yes, for that it is right that Europe as a whole offers a heartfelt apology.
So “heartfelt” by EU Commission and “grovelling” by those who have gone - still cannot figure why these UK guys in the videos don’t realize that they have left, nobody in the EU or I suspect in the UK really care any more.
And just when I’m on about UK/EU here is a conundrum.
Why is the UK taking advantage of it’s transitional period to import EU migrants despite a lockdown?.
This week the first of 150 Romanian fruit pickers landed in London, another 5 plane loads en-route - how come these UK companies don’t use UK workers?
hmmm. according to Concordia (UK largest recruiter of volunteer workers) out of 35k UK applicants for farm workers a whopping 84% said… Nah… not for me.
Air Charter Service are flying out the planes empty to take the workers back.
The EU will be fine as long as it is beneficial to Germany, because it is the founder of the association and its leader in all respects, but is it beneficial to other EU members? That is a completely different question!
That is a statement we have heard many times in the modern era - and demanding that people “Mind their own business” in this way is one of the favourite tricks of the postmodernist Left -
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leading to massive injustices - as we have seen happen when people take these demands seriously .
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However I digress - the fact of the matter is we are far from “Left” (pun intended)
(Headlines 16th April 2020)
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Fortunately No 10 are seemingly remaining firm
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BUT we have been fed the BS before and damn nearly let the globalist left overcome the democratic vote by devious means as they have done to so many of our European friends over the years . So this time, we will keep an eye on them - there is no way we shall take our eye off the ball - and we shall offer encouragement to othet friends who believe in the National Sovereignty which has been shown by the EU Debacle in this instance to be the Only means by which any real decisions can be made or any actions taken !
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If people in the uk think we have “Left” - they are far from understanding - to the point perhaps of naivete ! We are apparently stuck with their financial weakness for at least the next 12 years and in unlimited amount on a Joint and Several basis !
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Interesting that what they call the ECB (European Central Bank) is in no way a “Central Bank” in the way the Bank of England or the Fed for example are !
Sorry mate - we shall have “Left” when our potential liabilities are discharged or negotiated away and they are no longer in a position to commit our cash to their own whim !
Until that time we observers in the UK - shall as I said “Keep our eye on the ball”!
Macron, has come out and warned that the “EU will fail without financial transfers” which is a direct assault against the Netherlands and Germany.
He has further warned that otherwise, the Union remains a purely economic project and cannot be a political player. Macron realizes that Europe cannot survive.
The ploy to try to keep debts in check and austerity will not work and he is demanding the excess money of the Netherlands and Germany be sent to other states as welfare checks. But then what?
The system is unsustainable and even if the Netherlands and Germany agreed, their surpluses will quickly prove to be futile.
Capital will flee Europe for there remains a risk that they will impose capital controls. That capital will flee to US equities as confidence in government debts suddenly declines dramatically.
