Well that’s enough to burn your arse is it not. Getting too clever!!!
As per my previous post:
Placed limit sell orders instead of going short immediately just before the close (Dow and S&P). Orders not executed but profit targets on both were WELL reach in the early hours this morning.
Anyway. It is what it is. So as things stand now I’m flat. Can do nothing until the NYSE open and will obviously then be trading pivots along with the market internals (ticks etc.).
Well. Made some little bit today. But I must say that trading like this takes it out of a person. Well that and staying up until the early hours talking absolute ■■■■ here of course. I am totally knackered and there’s still two / three hours to go. I ain’t going to make it. So I’m wrapping it up for the day.
This (below) is better than sex. And believe me: in my 54 years I’ve had my fair share of decent fucks.
Today: my first 1K day with my beloved TradeStation!!! Been short. Been long. Worst part: still bailed early on both trades i.e. still building up trust and confidence.
But job done. For today.
Edit:
Then again: maybe not. Sure seem to be setting up for another long.
You do not know what you’re missing “Children Of The Sea”.
Best regards,
Mr. $TICK.
Well. It’s been a good day. And a good week thus far. And all jokes aside. This is seriously where the rubber meets the road. And it’s wonderful. And seriously: some of the interactions on this site are absolutely priceless. In a good way.
What a night!!! LOL!!!
I think I’ve had more posts flagged in the last two months than I had in like seven YEARS before!!! LOL!!!
Sign of the times I guess.
Nothing doing today really. At least not until the NYSE opens anyway.
Given that my TPS system is now looking for shorts: have placed one 'lil 'ol limit sell at R2 on the S&P and that’s about it.
Not quite with it today after last night’s antics though. Will take it easy and leisurely until later.
For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction!!! LOL!!! Commonly known as a hangover.
Not the most stellar of days. Up 200 or so. Now flat. Sure not worth the effort today.
But one thing that is very clear though:
You cannot be hung over or tired or not on form if you’re going to day trade that’s for sure. With the TPS system no problem. But day trading is a different story altogether. Today’s 200 could easily have been +2K or more but I for sure wasn’t concentrating on what I was doing today.
Lesson learned.
As per my TPS thread: can’t win 'em all. Closed today for a net loss of 570. But up 2.3K for the week. TPS trades closed on Monday accounted for 904. Balance from trades detailed here.
Reason for today: jumped in too early on Dow shorts. And this from simply being impatient today for whatever obscure reason. I know for sure that you HAVE to wait for the S&P to reach one or the other pivot level if you’re going to even attempt to go against the market on any of the Indices. I see this day in and day out. For some reason or the other: couldn’t wait today. Trades would still have been losses. But probably in the region of 100 as opposed to a net of 570.
And found something today that I didn’t now about i.e. the difference between advancing volume to declining volume in the S&P. Looking at this chart (below): absolutely no brainer today that trying to go against the trend was an exercise in futility. This little nugget I evidently missed in Carter’s book until earlier today (when I was looking for something else). Pity. Had I known about this little nugget there’s no way I would have taken profit on my long opened immediately at market open and would have only been closing like RIGHT NOW as the markets closed.
Anyway. Sure once again goes to my take on the market internals. Only the deaf, dumb, and blind (or those without this chart) would try to take counter trend trades and not go with the market on a day like this.
$VOLDSPC 5m 12072019
Spot the spike in volume into the close!!!
Now for what it’s worth: the ticks got me out of the shorts before that spike up (which obviously caused prices to jump up in the last five minutes). As soon as I started seeing the ticks climbing I got out.
Anyway. So I closed down today. But you now what??? Feels good nevertheless. Thoroughly enjoyed the week. Thoroughly enjoyed my trading. And closed out for a loss of 1%. This I am totally good with!!! And this, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it what this business is about!!!
Hey.
Well we’re about to kick off the week for real in about forty five minutes. But did go long the Dow and S&P Futures at the open last night as per the TBPS. S&P TP was hit at some point after the European open this morning. Dow not yet. But I sure do expect carry through from last week given the action into the close (as per the chart in my previous post of Friday).
Not sure how much actual trading I shall do today though. Not feeling too hot and don’t have my wits about me at this time (but this could change a bit later I suppose).
Well yesterday could very well have been the most frustrating trading day of my entire (day trading) career!!!
Somehow I managed to eek about 400 on the day which is actually surprising given that the market yesterday gave new meaning to the phrase “dead in the water”.
Still. At least with the market internals you can see what’s happening and what’s not happening and why. Take a look at the chart below. It’s a 5m chart that shows the difference between up volume and down volume on the S&P 500 Cash Index in real time. Compare yesterday’s action (or lack thereof) to the two previous trading sessions (last Thursday and last Friday). Pretty obvious as to why yesterday almost did my head in!!!
$VOLSPD 5m 15072019:
To the TBPS…
You know: I don’t care what anybody says but Wilder is/was a genius.
The hit rate of this system is absolutely uncanny.
The above being said: just take a look at the chart below of the Dow Futures (Daily). Safe to assume that momentum is up right??? Wrong!!! If you carefully analyze his momentum concept and then spend the time laboriously calculating the MF and TBP: you will quickly find that upward momentum has run out of steam for now. So I’m now short the Dow and S&P with TPs set at S1 for both. These trades I don’t need market internals for i.e. they’re set and forget.
OBVIOUSLY the system is not 100% accurate (but at LEAST 70% as he says and from what I’ve seen since I’ve come back to it then that percentage has been higher for at least the last month). So MAYBE the rally continues. And maybe it continues but only AFTER trading down to the TP levels. But if it’s wrong: I already know even before the close to day at what price the Dow has to close ABOVE in order to stop and reverse the (then wrong) trade.
Obviously what I’m also looking for today are tick rallies into pivot levels. So a rally into R1 or R2 or R3 will give me shorts (in addition to the TBPS trades described above).
Anyway. Enjoy.
Dow Futures Daily 16072019 1056
Out for 485. TBPS and pivots.
MF for the Dow is still down but I closed the TBPS short at a small profit i.e. the TP was missed intraday (although the S&P short went like clockwork). Could have left it open for tomorrow and moved the TP. Just felt like being flat I guess. Tomorrow is another day.
508.40. And the market’s not been open an hour. ■■■■ yeh!!!
You cannot beat this ■■■■. Klaar.
Now we sit and wait for $TICK extremes to fade the moves brought on by the unsuspecting.
And make that another 105.
Actually: I think I’m done for the day (unless TradeStation fires off an audible tick extreme signal of course).
And another 127.50. That’s it. I’m tired. Done. Later. Tomorrow.
Out for 835.25. But may get an opportunity to short into the close. We shall see what the ticks say.
Add a carton of cigarettes: +376.50!!! LOL!!!
Total: 1 211.75.
Done. Anything over and above this before the close is pure greed an nothing else.
“Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered”
Been a bull today. Been a bear today. Don’t wanna be a pig today!!! LOL!!!
Time for dinner and then have a read of some very interesting threads that have been lively while I’ve been working.
Well. That’s charming. These ■■■■■■■ Iranians just cost me 1 859.60!!!
One and a bit days of slog gone. Poof. Bastards. Mind you. Cannot blame them solely i.e. ■■■■■■■ rest of the world cannot leave well enough alone.
Oh well. That’s the way the crumble cookies I guess.
These were pivot trades that are always closed just before the close no matter what. Painful as it should be: it’s actually not. Just didn’t work out today is all. And quite a pity really i.e. we were in the middle of a nice rally, the ticks were playing nice, everything was good. And all of a sudden the ticks dropped through the floor as did price. And then the news hit on Bloomberg. And that was that. The market attempted several recoveries on the way down i.e. the ticks went from one extreme to the other. But there just wasn’t anything to sustain any upward pressure i.e. no sooner did they rally and they were pushed down again. I make the assumption that the attempts to stop the fall and move up were either idiots trying to catch a falling knife or stops being taken out or both. Fortunately for my risk based position sizing the loss was negligible in the bigger scheme of things. I could have bailed a bit earlier and the loss would have been a bit less but not by much i.e. once the ticks fell off of a cliff that was an opportunity to close out a bit earlier. But I thought I’d hold out i.e. seen this same action a few times since having the market internals and on all other occasions moves such as this have been nothing more than a good flushing out of weak positions and price has turned on dime and rallied. Unfortunately not today.
As some may know I should be in the market soon enough to replace my SLK. But then I found this tonight and I’m thinking meh: go big or go home!!!
Always wanted an S-Class with the MB GUARD spec. Didn’t realize they came out in a Maybach flavor. That’ll do me nice. I’m sure I could fit a guitar or two in the boot. And my dog would love the back.
Well. That WAS a nice open. Sort of ran out of steam after the first 30 mins. Ticks still trending up though. So could still have a rally of sorts today.
Still have TBPS longs from Friday of course.
Anyways. I guess we shall see. The trading day is but an embryo.
One thing that I’ve begun doing (just in case the Iranian’s and the US and the UK decide to kick off) is to start placing stops at ATR(14) above or below the last SIGNIFICANT swing high or swing low on the 30m charts. Rather unlike me to implement such things. But not in the mood for a repeat performance of Friday. Would rather get stopped out, wait for the next pivot level to be reached, and if that’s done in conjunction with some form of extreme tick reading, get in at a better price. Seems prudent to me (at least until this lot have sorted themselves out anyway).
Back to the land of dreams…
It just occurred to me: may as well use Wilder’s stops for the intraday tick trades. So ignore the last part above. Makes sense to me anyway. Those stops are just pivot + or - the True Range. Simple.
I can already see that this is going to be one of those infuriating days. @ES volume was low at the open which is supposed to be a pretty good indication as to whether or not we’re going to chop around all day or get some decent movement. And so far: nothing. EU markets also been lack lustre today (noted even by Bloomberg). So I’m guessing we’re going to hang around the entire week waiting for big tech. earnings.
May as well find something useful to do.
Been so busy mucking about on other threads I’m neglecting my own well being here!!!
I encountered a strange phenomenon last night. The NASDAQ closed above its TBP thus indicating either a long trade OR to remain in the long trade from the day before. The Dow and the S&P, however, both closed BELOW their respective TBPs. Given that I am a firm believer in the notion that the NASDAQ “leads” I decided to go with the (NASDAQ) flow and leave all longs open (Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ) instead of stopping and reversing on the Dow and S&P and thus far with spectacular results (although as is usually the case when I post here the trading day is but an embryo). I will admit though that a part of my reasoning here is that fact that big tech. is reporting this week and if Microsoft’s performance and results are anything to go by: the NASDAQ should continue it’s grind upward for a day or two or three. I know that one should not be factoring this in when trading a purely mechanical trading system but hey: cannot ignore over a decade’s worth of experience I’m afraid.
This all being said though: just because two were out of kilter with the other does not necessarily mean that the signals are incorrect. It does not necessarily have to be a binary outcome. It could very well be that the TP on the NASDAQ long is executed and then these markets tank for some or the other reason and the TPs on both the Dow and the S&P shorts are also taken out (just probably not on the same day is all).
Anyway. Let’s see what the day brings.
