Think of the most pleasurable experience you’ve had in life. And multiply that by 100. And that’s close to what I’ve just experienced!!! LOL!!!
I just watched the Indices tank. While watching I was monitoring the ticks. The ticks got to about -800 and at that very moment the S&P traded to its Weekly S2 pivot. Then there was a pause and seconds after that a change in the direction of the ticks. Jumped in at market long and stayed in the trade until the ticks started to reverse. Out for 375 and about 4 S&P points.
Not not a big deal some would say i.e. why not just go long at the pivot level reached. Well here’s why. The ticks were still negative and dropping at Weekly S1. Had I gone long there I would have had to realize a loss for sure. The ticks kept me out. And the ticks got me in at the right pivot level.
I am a bit nervous still though i.e. should have stayed in the trade until either my risk percentage loss had been reached or until the ticks climbed to +600. But it takes a bit of getting used to trading with the ticks and it’s a bit of a mind ■■■■ at first so small steps for me.
Although I’m out of the trade I’m obviously going to follow it through and will post screenshots.
In just monitoring though: it seems that one should stay in the trade as long as the tick reading is positive. Once it approaches zero then that means the market going flat. And that just happened five seconds ago so let me take a screenshot quick.
Now: first prize would be an extreme tick reading of +1 000 and the S&P trading straight into Weekly S1.
Well here’s the trade. The white boxes indicate the action on both charts at around the same time. I got long at the EXACT price of the pivot. Unfortunately bailed too early as it’s now almost traded right up Weekly S1 (which just also happens to be daily S3). When looking at the tick chart just remember it’s not price. Also: this particular tick chart I’ve set to only draw a bar every 25 ticks (although it really doesn’t matter if the truth be told). In other words: the two charts are not tracking each other i.e. you’re looking at two totally different things. Essentially though: a positive tick reading indicates more buys than sells and visa versa for a negative tick reading. But it does take some getting used to as one tends to WANT to see the two things following each other if that makes sense. A bit of a mind ■■■■ at first.
Anyway. Got out WAY too early i.e. should have stayed in until those ticks got to +600. Oh well. Still learning. Still need to build up a little faith and trust in this new stuff. And profit is profit.
Alright well I just shorted at Weekly S2 and Daily S3. Cannot REALLY say that the ticks had anything to do with this trade i.e. they were just below 0 when I took the trade.
Anyways. It’s now a single small position and I’ll just let it run until the close i.e. cannot help but get the feeling that key to this is to not be greedy. Well part of me is saying that. Another part is saying well why not i.e. what’s wrong with being aggressive??? Floor traders do this on a minute-by-minute basis. And maybe that’s what trading is all about really. Early days. But so far so good. And I have to day pretty chuffed with myself at this point.
And as I sit here and type the ticks have turned down and are accelerating downward. And it seems as though it takes good while for price to actually catch up. And I’m talking here about three or four seconds if not more. I reckon this about as close as you’re going to get when it comes to predicting short term movements in price.
Anyways. Time for get some food ready and step away from the vehicle I think.
And right there is the reason you wait for extreme tick readings!!! LOL!!! The S&P traded through the pivot like it wasn’t even there. Oh well. Fortunately a cheap lesson.
Well. I think it’s time to pack it in. Markets very quiet. No point in hanging around. Been a good week.
For the record: the Dow needs to close below 27 172.1 for it to be a valid TBPS short. Not waiting for that. If it closes below there I’ll place a limit sell over the weekend.
Wham bam thank you ma’am. All things being equal: profit before the kettle has boiled!!!
Placed the order as detailed above over the weekend. Was executed right at the open last night. And price is VERY fast approaching S1 as I type this.
Something occurred to me over this weekend though while doing the TBPS calculations and placing the order i.e. I remember now what the main issue was with Wilder’s TBPS and why is pissed me off at the time:
Sometimes when you’re calculating your stop as per the TBPS you will find that if the daily range (or True Range) for the previous day has been small then the pivots are closer together i.e. not spaced out. End result is that you can take a much larger position if you’re trading the system as advertised BUT this has two inherent problems i.e. the stop is much closer as is the TP (both in relation to the open). And I think I’ve figured it out now. Basically if you’re not already in a position: if you see that placing your stop as per the TBPS is going to result in your stop NOT being OUTSIDE of either R2 or S2 then just don’t take the trade. Simple as that. In other words: there is no point in entering a TBPS trade where the potential profit is minuscule while at the same time risking 5% on the same trade. Now why the ■■■■ I couldn’t figure THAT out years ago is totally beyond me. But there it is for nothing.
Oh well. That’s my starter for ten this morning. Not much more to add and nothing more to do until the NYSE opens (the tick data only gets generated during the NYSE cash session).
P.S.
To further expound on the above re: the TBPS (for the one person following this thread i.e. that would be me!!! LOL!!!).
The reason for my epiphany is this:
I cannot say for sure how much the markets have changed since 1978. But if I look at the daily ranges of the Dow today compared to what they were back then: they are VASTLY increased. A 100 point drop in the Dow even a few years back was a catastrophe. Nowadays that’s less than the average daily range and nobody bats an eyelid. My point is that even although this SHOULD all be relative: it would certainly appear that it’s not. In other words: nowadays the chances of R2 or S2 being hit intraday are by far greater than back then (as I say one would assume that all is relative but that’s not what I’m seeing). So if the TBPS would have you place your stops anywhere below R2 or above S2 on any given day then you can be pretty sure you’re going to get stopped out. And of course: price will then turn and go in the trade’s favor. The other elephant in the room of course is that ALL of Wilder’s trading systems from 1978 were developed for trading commodities and commodities only. So this is quite possibly an adaptation necessary for more volatile instruments such as the Indices.
And while I’m on a roll…
It may also be worth mentioning that I get extremely pissed off when I’ve been sitting waiting for hours on end for price to reach a pivot where I’ve placed an order and it misses the order by a fly’s ball hair. Now any book that you read on the topic will say “well I placed the order a couple of ticks this side of the pivot level”. Well what the hell is a “couple of ticks” i.e. I like to base whatever I do on some type of concrete mathematical formula. So to this end I’ve started using my own unique method. And that is this: I will take the difference between the price of the two levels, divide that by 16, and then add or subtract that figure from the level in question. This has the effect of your orders being placed “just inside” or “just outside” of the level in question. And of course it’s dynamic i.e. the greater or the lesser the distance between pivots the greater or the lesser the “just inside” or “just outside” your orders are placed. Sure is working just fine for me.
Hmmmnnn… And in just thinking here as I typed the above: why not use a Fib. number instead??? That’s nicely “boxed” is it not??? So could be either 13 or 21 (those being the two closest to my 16)??? Let me check that one out for the fun of it.
21 it is!!! LOL!!! Looks perfect.
Now what are the chances of price reversing while I was boasting this morning on my first post of the day??? LOL!!! I started the post and all I was seeing was red bars. The moment I looked again after flipping to my platform: nice green bars!!! LOL!!!
Oh well. Let’s see how things pan out. Could just be a crass attempt to close the opening gaps in the cash markets (UK and EU),
Of course though:
We already know that the Dow has to close above 27 183.6 now in order for this trade to be invalidated and stopped and reversed. And which makes absolutely on logical sense to me now given that the stop is supposed to be at 27 155. So. We come back to my risk based position sizing. And no stops. Always comes back to the same thing. All good.
Candy from a baby. A virtue is a grace. Grace is a girl who sits…
TP hit seconds after the open of the NYSE and 612 out of the deal.
This happens with such frequency that one is tempted to increase lot sizes. Do not. In my case there’s a very fine balance (so it would seem) between this risk based position sizing and profits and losses. A kind of perfect equilibrium. Besides: my longer terms shorts as per the TPS are looking pretty good at this point too.
Now we sit back and watch the ticks!!!
Short of having a 1M trading account: I could not have had a more stellar day.
Three trades: 1 x TBPS and 2 x Pivots with Ticks = 719.50. And I’m about to close my TPS trades out for just under 1K in the next 25 mins.
This stuff is phenomenal. I have not enough words. It has only one problem: the markets have to close. Otherwise: I’d sit and do this 24/5. You are so hyped when you’ve taken profit split seconds before price retraces and right at the end of a move let me tell you. Almost like you know that you’ve squeezed every last point out of the trade. And man it’s a good feeling. And I’ve not even yet had the privilege of fading a +/-1 000 tick reading because volume has been subdued since I jumped in with all of this.
It’s like a veil has been lifted. Without these market internals: you really are trading blind or at very least in a bit of a haze.
Ah well. That’s it for the day.
I keep saying I’m going to bed and I’m still sitting here.
To further add to one of my posts above re: not bothering with some of these TBPS trades.
Because today’s range was small: the TP is so close from the open that it’s almost not worth it. What’s more: the TRUE RANGE is a lot smaller too. (Referring to the Dow here by the way). So: in order to make things worthwhile: instead of going in at market or placing a limit order sell before the open I have instead placed a limit order sell just south (as per my 21 calculation) of the daily pivot. It adds a little bit to the potential profit on this trade if the order is executed. What’s more: no stops at all i.e. position size is based on my risk based position sizing as per my other trading system. I suppose in short: I’m using the TBPS to indicate direction (momentum) while simply trading the pivots (this obviously in the absence of my beloved ticks)
Well that’s enough to burn your arse is it not. Getting too clever!!!
As per my previous post:
Placed limit sell orders instead of going short immediately just before the close (Dow and S&P). Orders not executed but profit targets on both were WELL reach in the early hours this morning.
Anyway. It is what it is. So as things stand now I’m flat. Can do nothing until the NYSE open and will obviously then be trading pivots along with the market internals (ticks etc.).
Well. Made some little bit today. But I must say that trading like this takes it out of a person. Well that and staying up until the early hours talking absolute ■■■■ here of course. I am totally knackered and there’s still two / three hours to go. I ain’t going to make it. So I’m wrapping it up for the day.
This (below) is better than sex. And believe me: in my 54 years I’ve had my fair share of decent fucks.
Today: my first 1K day with my beloved TradeStation!!! Been short. Been long. Worst part: still bailed early on both trades i.e. still building up trust and confidence.
But job done. For today.
Edit:
Then again: maybe not. Sure seem to be setting up for another long.
You do not know what you’re missing “Children Of The Sea”.
Best regards,
Mr. $TICK.
Well. It’s been a good day. And a good week thus far. And all jokes aside. This is seriously where the rubber meets the road. And it’s wonderful. And seriously: some of the interactions on this site are absolutely priceless. In a good way.
What a night!!! LOL!!!
I think I’ve had more posts flagged in the last two months than I had in like seven YEARS before!!! LOL!!!
Sign of the times I guess.
Nothing doing today really. At least not until the NYSE opens anyway.
Given that my TPS system is now looking for shorts: have placed one 'lil 'ol limit sell at R2 on the S&P and that’s about it.
Not quite with it today after last night’s antics though. Will take it easy and leisurely until later.
For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction!!! LOL!!! Commonly known as a hangover.
Not the most stellar of days. Up 200 or so. Now flat. Sure not worth the effort today.
But one thing that is very clear though:
You cannot be hung over or tired or not on form if you’re going to day trade that’s for sure. With the TPS system no problem. But day trading is a different story altogether. Today’s 200 could easily have been +2K or more but I for sure wasn’t concentrating on what I was doing today.
Lesson learned.
As per my TPS thread: can’t win 'em all. Closed today for a net loss of 570. But up 2.3K for the week. TPS trades closed on Monday accounted for 904. Balance from trades detailed here.
Reason for today: jumped in too early on Dow shorts. And this from simply being impatient today for whatever obscure reason. I know for sure that you HAVE to wait for the S&P to reach one or the other pivot level if you’re going to even attempt to go against the market on any of the Indices. I see this day in and day out. For some reason or the other: couldn’t wait today. Trades would still have been losses. But probably in the region of 100 as opposed to a net of 570.
And found something today that I didn’t now about i.e. the difference between advancing volume to declining volume in the S&P. Looking at this chart (below): absolutely no brainer today that trying to go against the trend was an exercise in futility. This little nugget I evidently missed in Carter’s book until earlier today (when I was looking for something else). Pity. Had I known about this little nugget there’s no way I would have taken profit on my long opened immediately at market open and would have only been closing like RIGHT NOW as the markets closed.
Anyway. Sure once again goes to my take on the market internals. Only the deaf, dumb, and blind (or those without this chart) would try to take counter trend trades and not go with the market on a day like this.
$VOLDSPC 5m 12072019
Spot the spike in volume into the close!!!
Now for what it’s worth: the ticks got me out of the shorts before that spike up (which obviously caused prices to jump up in the last five minutes). As soon as I started seeing the ticks climbing I got out.
Anyway. So I closed down today. But you now what??? Feels good nevertheless. Thoroughly enjoyed the week. Thoroughly enjoyed my trading. And closed out for a loss of 1%. This I am totally good with!!! And this, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it what this business is about!!!
Hey.
Well we’re about to kick off the week for real in about forty five minutes. But did go long the Dow and S&P Futures at the open last night as per the TBPS. S&P TP was hit at some point after the European open this morning. Dow not yet. But I sure do expect carry through from last week given the action into the close (as per the chart in my previous post of Friday).
Not sure how much actual trading I shall do today though. Not feeling too hot and don’t have my wits about me at this time (but this could change a bit later I suppose).
Well yesterday could very well have been the most frustrating trading day of my entire (day trading) career!!!
Somehow I managed to eek about 400 on the day which is actually surprising given that the market yesterday gave new meaning to the phrase “dead in the water”.
Still. At least with the market internals you can see what’s happening and what’s not happening and why. Take a look at the chart below. It’s a 5m chart that shows the difference between up volume and down volume on the S&P 500 Cash Index in real time. Compare yesterday’s action (or lack thereof) to the two previous trading sessions (last Thursday and last Friday). Pretty obvious as to why yesterday almost did my head in!!!
$VOLSPD 5m 15072019:
