Will we soon be in a recession?

The Lobby
21

The curve has inverted. I think I read where 70% of the time when that happens, a recession hits 12-18 months later.

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22

Weā€™ll seeā€¦ Very curious to find out what will happen in the coming months.

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23

With the war in Ukraine, I only expect things to get worse. :frowning:

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24

You know whatā€™s funny? We keep talking about things getting worse. And weā€™ve been doing it since 2020. Ang guess what, it HAS been getting worse :laughing:

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25

I just read that Russia stopped the gas to Poland. Itā€™s about to get even worse. :crazy_face:

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26

Lovely! Just what we needed.

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27

Things have changed in the month since the above post, The Market has gone past the correction stage and is now moving into the Bear market stage, Bear Markets often precede recessions, We should be in a full ugly bear market come November US elections, if the recession has not started by then, you can bet it will in January following a horrible Christmas buying season.

I hope I am wrong, but I am planning for the worst

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28

No harm in planning for the worst - likewise good to expect the best.

Upcoming - there will be a cessation of hostilities in Russia/Ukraine - not ā€˜peaceā€™ as we know it, that will take a little longerā€¦

There will be no economic cliff-fall - a correction - but business adapts - thatā€™s the strength of a capital market.

There will not be a recession, instead we will get on with the business of living.

Am I right or wrong?

Mostly Iā€™m right :slight_smile:

29

I am always expecting the worst, which annoys my family immensely, but theyā€™re happy that Iā€™m prepared for it when it happens, haha.
Or at least I am sometimes.

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30

Just put in the first part, -1.4 % GDP growth for 1st quarter.

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31

Our economy can not survive on $5+ diesel fuel and double digit real inflation.

I am not sure what country peterma is speaking for, Here in the US we are deep crap

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32

What does planning for the worst entail? :open_mouth:

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33

Also, I would like to knowā€¦ is it a good time to ā€œbuy the dipā€ during a recession?

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34

That depends on whether the dip has finished dipping. :smiley:

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35

For me ( not investment advice) I will be overweighting my portfolio in XLU ( Utilities) and XLP ( Consumer Staples) These two sectors will outperform the SPY in bear markets

Last three bear markets, buying the dip would have brought you huge returns, the problem is you never know where the bottom will be, so buying a little every week during a bear market ( also known as dollar-cost averaging down) will make you a happy investor once the bear is over. But expect some pain waiting for the market to turn

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36

Yeah see Iā€™ve been buying a little since last month but wow has that been painfulā€¦

37

I like the XLU and XLP idea though. I might get into that. Thank you!!!

38

I am afraid the pain has just begun,

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Seriously though, I was talking to a friend about this and how it can possibly get better. Even with the Fed intervening (if it even works), with supply issues from both Russia/Ukraine and Chinaā€¦ can there even be any way out of this?