did I mention I thought it would break down? looky there If I wasn’t such a newbie I would think that I have a clue as to whats going on. So what do you all think the price will do during the day today with the news and all? I think I see a pattern emerging but is it good enough to be traded? Or is it just my brain seeing patterns where there aren’t any. hmmm
well nevermind that, heres my observation from last night. From about 1am to 4am gmt, a narrow range, regardless of the earlier highs during the period we are looking at. so I drew my lines at .64116 and .65879 If I put orders just above and below those lines is that too close ? will I get hit by false breakouts? sorry if this is too much of a modification to the original strategy but when I see something like that I figure price has to go up or down from there. I was thinking a break down because of a downtrend from a high of around .65500 around july 20, lots of ups and downs but overall down. And also because its been going down most of the night from the high around 21:00
critiques please?
P.S. price is shooting up right now but I predict a dip later in the day, (thats me out on a limb)
hi Trev,
I was reading your PDF this morning again, and was thinking with little I have. I had even to go back to page 2 and look at the screen-shoot to make sure your overnight zone is in the black part.
Then looking at the pdf charts with your bowls, they are hindsight. You only know up to the end of the black on your chart at 4GMT what happened.
There is no indication (I can see) in the overnight time-frame if a bowl, sideways, zigzag is coming up. Yet this only looks to me like this.
I do believe when you find “your” system you may sense from the overnight period what shape is coming up.
The only way to find out? Just what you are doing, try it out. I would appreciate if you would post back if it was a failure or a winner. No guts, No glory and from my end No glory since I still was not “enlightened” with a (I see, that’s what’s going on) moment.
Clint: Thanks for the chart, I do read and look at your posting after I closed the non triggered overnight order.
Two winners last night on the down side with G/J and G/U. I wake up later this morning and find out that the G/U touch my entry point on the up side, and this one was a loss.:(
that is a fair enought stament in regards in heindsight, however you could broaden the theory and say if the chart is eratic ie big swings and lots of them, in might be a idea to miss that day,
i am looking a june in more detail this morning and comparing diffrent take profits and s/l
other news
so far i have found a straight 50 pips profit and a 50 pip SL with no intervention most profitble than a 50/30 in june im going back manually on a 5 min chart but im going to carry on with my origianal stratergy with TS’S but like i mentioned earlier im going to have an account run along side it that is more of a test and a bit of fun more than anything
i also think the BOWL thing was coinsadental for this month and my mind got a bit carried away with patterns ect… however it still remains if the price action is eratic before and after 5am it looks like false break out can occur, resulting in losses if going for more than a few pips
there have been 4 or 5 things i have been paying close attention to on thses daily charts
The bowl theory(i think looking back like i say it didnt really work untill recently anyway so we can disregard that
Support and resistance
The overall smoothness of the moves into the day
patterns with the high and lows and the continuation factor(even thoe 8 out 10 trades will continue in the direction of the overnight there is not evidence to sugest as yet taking the oposite trade will result in a loss as illustrated in the pdf.
average pips as a maximum and range.
on a 50 TP 50 SL i have found
on a average
6 in 10 Straight Wins
2 in 10 wins BUT needding the full margin for error Sl before profit of 50
2 in 10 straigt losses nothing you can do
[U]if you look at june in detail it looks like this
[/U]
11th,12th17th24th needing the range but still WINS at TP 50
18th,23rd,29th, Straight losses
Sum up
13 + 4 = 17 wins at 50 pips = total 850 pips
3 straight losses = 150
PROFIT 700 pips for the month
the reason i pointed out those 4 that need the 80% range is because most perople would panic and start taking the losses, however if you look at the results
WIN 13 = 650
LOSE 7 = 350
Totalling 300 pips profit for the month
looking at the results above if you can factor in a 50 pip sl into your stratergy and close your eyes without touching the keyboard for an hour or 2 then you will make the most profit
by messing you can see on that month you would have halved your income.
Precisely the same I taught last night after I had the computer off, My SL40 bothered me, I will up it tonight to SL50 and leave the trade all to himself.
Was the 50SL:50TP for June? To get a profit out of that you’d have to have more than a 50:50 win rate, a lot more.
I ran it through the EA and it looked like 55:45 hence why I was looking at 1:2 risk:reward strategies. Still trying to work out some oints for moving stops to break even, etc.
there is something wrong with your ea i have manually gone over the whole month day by day on a 5 minute chart following each and every candle in the time period we talk about, even if there was any doubt about a candle i converted it to a 1 minute chart just to get fine detail
Aha, it’s the timing thing again. What times do you use, I’ve always been at odds with this because wasn’t sure whether to include candles or not. Seems most profitable is entering trades around 6 euro time, which is 4GMT. ie entered at 6GMT so the high and low of the 3amGMT candle (on the 1hr chart) are counted but not the 4am cande. oops
ok its 0600 Central European Summer Time which is gmt +2
the final bar is included in the time frame however it should make 2 much of a diffrence as the final bar isnt normaly a indicator bar (ie Not normally The high or low) but it does hapeen sometimes
Interesting, I knew there would be a big dip second half of the day, got 50+ pips there, could have got more if I had the courage of my convictions! There seems to be a pattern of 2 or 3 main dips during each day though sometimes masked by a bigger move.
back to the strategy at hand. Looks a little choppy so far tonight, but with the uptrend during the day I’m guessing the breakout will be to the upside this time. What do you all think?
Question about volume, well it isn’t really volume, it’s tick volume but I notice a spike in it during the middle of the night. What causes that? Also a lull in the middle of the day, I’m guessing because the big traders are taking a lunch break?
Notes on the GBP/USD Breakout Strategy for Wednesday/Thursday:
Last night’s breakout was completed at 07:20 GMT Wednesday, at which point the down-move reversed, later breaking out of its descending channel, and establishing a new, ascending channel. This new ascending channel, bounded by Lines 63 and 64 on the current chart, is still intact.
After the reversal of last night’s breakout, the GU went on to test 1.6500 before pulling back into a narrow, well-defined range during the current Overnight Period (marked by the right-hand pair of green, vertical lines). The narrow range from HIGH to LOW in the current Period makes a breakout look very likely tonight — however, at this time, direction is very uncertain.
A newer, shorter, narrower, descending channel has formed since about the start of the current Overnight Period. This newer channel is marked by Lines 75 and 76. Presently, the GU is inside two channels (the larger ascending channel, and the smaller descending channel), but it won’t be able to stay there for long. It will be interesting to see which channel the GU chooses to respect.
On this chart, I have marked some potential support levels which a downside breakout would have to contend with. These are marked by Lines 74, 68, and 69. Line 74 is intended to flag the congestion area between 1.6390 and 1.6410 encountered last night, before the breakout, and indicated by the boxed-in area.
Line 67 marks the Day’s High, which may or may not be significant resistance (in the event of a breakout to the upside tonight). A strong upside breakout could blow right through this resistance level, but it’s impossible to predict that.
I will post another chart, and give specific prices shortly after 04:00 GMT.
If I wasn’t such a newbie I would think that I have a clue as to whats going on. So what do you all think the price will do during the day today with the news and all? I think I see a pattern emerging but is it good enough to be traded? Or is it just my brain seeing patterns where there aren’t any. hmmm
oops