Win ratio

Beginner Questions
532

Additional Notes for Tonight:

The market has discarded the narrow descending channel which I pointed out in the last post. I have removed that channel from the chart below. A new HIGH for the current Period has been made. Based on the prevailing channel, and the new higher HIGH,
I think we have to conclude that the market has a clear upward bias at this time.

I will place orders in both directions, this morning; but, I’m confident that the breakout will be to the upside. If that happens, you should watch your position very carefully in the area of the daily high (1.6504 on the 17:15 GMT candle), because IF the GU fails to breach that resistance level, it could reverse in a major way. On the other hand, if the GU does breach the 1.6504 resistance and continue upward, there could be a very nice up-move this morning.

Alternatively, you could place your Buy Entry order above the daily high (1.6504) by a comfortable margin, which is what I will do.

Here are Resistance and Support levels for this morning:

R: 1.6600
R: 1.6550
R: 1.6504

current price

S: 1.6413
----------> note: these 2 prices mark the boundaries of the congestion area around 1.6400, established last night
S: 1.6389

S: 1.6353
S: 1.6310

Watch out for Retail Sales figures, month-over-month, to be reported in Britain at 08:30 GMT Thursday.

On my chart, the Period HIGH (Line 65) is 1.6493 Bid, and the LOW (Line 66) is 1.6434 Bid.

I will place Entry Orders, as follows:

BUY 1.6520, SL 1.6490, TP 1.6550 (my Buy point is 16 pips above nearby resistance at 1.6504)

SELL 1.6428, SL 1.6458, TP 1.6398 (for one-half of my position)

SELL 1.6428, SL 1.6458, TP 1.6358 (for one-half of my position)

If the breakout is to the downside this morning, I have more confidence in a long down-move, than a long up-move.
Accordingly, I will go for a larger profit on a break to the down-side.

Good trading this morning, guys.

Clint

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533

thank you cliff

534

BUY 1.6520, SL 1.6490, TP 1.6550 (my Buy point is 16 pips above nearby resistance at 1.6504)

Long side is a lost for me; anyone has the same?

535

I removed my Buy order on the 06:25 GMT candle, because I just didn’t like the price action. I’m glad I did, because just 2 minutes later, my order would have been triggered — and 2 candles after that, I would have been stopped out.

My Sell orders are still pending, but I have no idea whether this thing is going to continue up, or head down.

If any of you are still in a Long trade, I wish you success.

Clint

536

i went 5 pips above that so my long trade hasnt been triggered yet however im thinking if the price has not reached 1.64647 before 0830 it might be a good price to go short

united airline have had 180 odd million wipe of there shares after a a guy wrote a song about them complaining they had broke his guitar

YouTube - United Breaks Guitars

funny as hell (but not so for the investor hehe)

what a way to write a complaint

537

I’ve been looking for a good short entry, as well.

How did you come up with that price (1.64647)?

538

it the price of this morning lows (dont get thst confuse with the overnight lows)
also it would at that point be ouside the up trend channel so those 2 ressons it might be worth a punt, but its all about the price action now and the news at 0830

539

I only put in a buy order, 2 reasons, thought it would go up due to the previous uptrend (large cannel), (the small down channel seems to be happen frequently over night). just closed manually at plus 28pips since I just woke up and price seems to be a bit congested at this point and it is close to my tp anyway. oh yeah, second reason, ibfx, I cant do a buy and a sell, have to get a new broker.
buy at .64934 sl-50 tp+30 actual exit .65155

540

Looks like +22 pips — good job, Talon.

I bailed out earlier for 0 pips.

Looks like Oskar made his TP (30 pips) on the news spike. That’s a risky time to be holding an open position —
it could have gone either way. But 30 pips while you sleep ain’t too shabby.

I don’t know what to call the price action over the past 5 hours. I hesitate to call it an upside breakout, because, as breakouts go, it was pretty pathetic. The total up-move, from the Overnight HIGH, has been 47 pips so far, including the news spike. It appears to have run out of steam.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take it down 100-200 pips from here.

I’m still considering raising my Sell Entry point, putting it at 20 pips below the channel boundary — that would be about 1.6475 at the present time.

Or, maybe I’ll just pack it in for today, and have another go at it Friday morning. I haven’t decided.

541

i know no 2 days are never the same but my feeling towards to day is off the chart its creeping up and technicals says it should go up but why do i get the feeling if i walk away im going to miss on a big down turn i have a sell stop in place at 1.64769 as a shot to nothing really but todays feels like MILLION miles from any other, im confused.com

im going to hang around for a bit to see how thing go with that order in place just out of sheer curiosity

542

They keep nudging it higher, little by little. Not a game that I want to participate in.

So, I’m going to remove all pending orders, and quit for now.

I’ll talk to you again in 18 or 20 hours.

Have a great day!

Clint

543

Hi All,
Yes, I did :slight_smile: actually somehow I missed the upcoming news yesterday, I agree, news can easy go either way. (May the force be with you :)) and it was, pure luck on my end.
I had a good week so far while sleeping, but now is coming the “exception” day, Friday. This is the one with many times lots of long wicks, real fast moving high up and way down, just to finish the candle somewhere in the middle. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
I have all day to decide. :slight_smile:

544

did I say 28? I increased my lot size and then got mixed up on the math :stuck_out_tongue: oops.

ok I bailed out in time, it went down from there.

Here’s something Ive noticed and mentioned before there seems to be a pattern of price dips during the day. one in the early part of the day and one later, sometimes masked by a larger move. the dips are clear yesterday in Clint’s large channel. the big turn down this morning looks like the beginning of the same. So I predict price will turn up and then make another dive later in the day.
other patterns seem to repeat also…
…out on a limb again.

545

Hmmmmmmmm, Now this prediction would make every weather guy proud. :smiley:

546

hi guys what time zone is babypips on ? ok sussed it +6 = uk time now i can keep up with you guys:)

547

made 38 pips today on my goofy little prediction. Just dumb luck I’m sure. Maybe I need to start a different thread and present these ideas but for now just looking forward to tonights breakout scenario !

…thinking of changing my name to -weatherman-
The forcast for today… mostly light… with scattered darkness tonight…


548

I have succeeded in restoring the chart for last Friday, July 17 (see post #436 on this thread).

It’s a time-consuming task. I will try to restore more of the lost charts, as time allows.

549

Long 1.6540 SL 50 TP30
Short 1.6459 SL50 TP30

Since I don’t like Friday’s I will trade smaller units. Oanda is calculating all in units and 10000 unit = 1pip, so I trade only 5000 units, half the loss but also half the profit only. :slight_smile:

550

Notes on the GBP/USD Breakout Strategy for Thursday/Friday:

Last night’s whatever-it-was (I wouldn’t call it a breakout) was ugly. I canceled my pending orders before they triggered, and retreated to the sidelines. I know of a couple of members of this group (The Breakout Gang, somebody called it) who made pips last night. If you were one of them, Congratulations!

Last night we had two potential inclined channels, both of which were broken and no longer apply. They appear on the chart below, for reference only. Tonight we don’t have an identifiable channel, but we do have a triangle in the making (see Lines 83 and 85 on the chart, below). It’s a triangle, and not a pennant, because it doesn’t have a “stick”.

Triangles and pennants are especially good chart patterns for our purposes, because they are patterns that the price MUST break out of. The price can stay in a channel forever, but it can’t stay in a triangle or a pennant, because it runs out of room. Sometimes, when neither the buyers nor the sellers have conviction or strength, they will keep a price inside a triangle (or pennant) right down to the corner point, where something has to give. The resulting breakout is often sudden.

So, we will watch two breakout scenarios tonight: from the “box” which we create with our vertical and horizontal lines, and from the triangle. It’s most likely that the triangle will be broken first, because the price is simply running out of room to maneuver. If that occurs, the direction of the breakout from the triangle will give us a good clue about the coming breakout from the “box”.

So far, the HIGH and LOW for tonight were made several hours ago, and are marked by Lines 82 and 83 on the chart. If the GU price stays in the triangle, then these HIGH and LOW prices will prevail right to the end of the period at midnight New York time (04:00 GMT).

At present, it looks like we can place orders in both directions tonight, and it looks like the HIGH + 6 pips + spread,
and the LOW - 6 pips, will work fine for entry points.

But, it’s a bit early to be placing orders. I’ll post an update around midnight (my time).

Clint

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551

I was looking for channels like last night and didn’t notice the triangle till you pointed it out. 11:30 edt right now and it’s getting closer and closer to the point.