Win ratio

Well, so much for a run to the upside. We just had a nice run to the downside, triggering my Sell entry on the 2:30am EDT candle, and hitting my limit on the 2:35am candle.

So, now I’ll have to find something else to do this morning.

Did anyone else trade Trevor’s strategy this morning?

Clint

That’s probability maths!! :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

pretty sure we all know that

Gee, I thought the Dealbook CTL language was the more modern. :confused:

I have done some programming in the CTL.

It certainly requires far less statements that MT4. :slight_smile:

Ah, I can do that!! :o :o :o

But I will let you do it Phil - save doubling up on efforts.

I look forward to your ATR results!! :slight_smile:

Here is my latest chart showing the results pictorially.

The time is, of course, GMT + 1, and the white areas are the trading times, with the pink areas the rest areas from which the high, low lines emanate.

The crosses are no entry trades and the rest were successes!! :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

did you gain any pips?

Trevpick question:
I don’t have any data over the weekend and as I can see on Tymen he has the gap too after the 19th, what data range are you using for Sunday night Monday?
Thanks

i dont use the data for the whole week end

i just use whatever data apears between 21:00 friday till 0500 monday morning if there has been a big price diffrence betwwen the open and close between friday and monday i dont trade

hope that helps

That makes sense, most likely no trades midnight Sunday/Monday. A sweet short trading week with this system (Tuesday to Friday). :smiley:
Of course no money either :eek:

Thanks

Even tough it would have been some good pips. Friday 19:00 GMT till this morning. :slight_smile:


Using my modified strategy for this today another successful trade.
+26 pips on GBPUSD, +23pips on GBPCAD
Risk: Reward 1.5x10% ATR : 10%ATR
2100GMT to 0700 GMT, orders set for open of London. I’m thinking about backtesting to open of Frankfurt but doesn’t seem much difference so far.

Hey, Trevor

I sure did. I’m using your strategy in its simplest form — the way you first described it on this thread: entry orders 6 pips above the period High and 6 pips below the period Low, and 10-pip TP. I was confident about my entry prices, so I laid on a pretty big trade size.

Beginning about 12:30am (New York time), the G/U price appeared to be heading for my Buy Entry order, but it reversed before triggering the order. Then it hit my Sell Entry order, and five minutes later I was limited out. Ten pips x a whole bunch of lots.

I haven’t completely accepted your claim of a 98% win-rate for this strategy, simply because I haven’t used it long enough to know. But, so far, I like your strategy. Thanks for telling us about it.

Well, it’s midnight again, and time to extract some more money from our favorite market (that would be [I]favourite[/I], for you Brits).

Clint

well good luck and I hope you have lots of success with it

Ok, I’m finished with my testing using the ATR to calculate SL and TP levels.

This really surprised me, but a flat 30 SL and BE proved more profitable than using 5%, 10%, or 15% of the current ATR!!

I didn’t try any non-1:1 ratio setups, my eyes hurt too much from all the testing I did do. :slight_smile:

I wanted to go back and mess around with my 30 pip SL/TP results some more, but being the idiot that I am I didn’t save them!!

I’ve scrolled through the whole year on 5M charts about 10 times now so I’m getting an idea how these breakouts work. I have no data to back this up (since I didn’t save it :(), but I think using a 30 pip SL and TP, and not trading on days where the ATR(14) is less than 200, would probably raise the 59% win ratio to around 70%. That’s how I’m going to starting trading this strategy tomorrow.

Thank you very much for posting this strategy, TREVPICK001. I’ve never seen anyone come up with the idea to stop the timeframe at 4am GMT. I’ve seen lots of systems that use 6am or 8am, but this blows them out of the water!!

It’s amazing how such a simple change can make so big a difference. :slight_smile:

I still don’t understand the whole 4amGMT part of this, seems abitrary?
It’s right in the middle of the Asian session so why not, if the Asian session is low volume, use the whole of the Asian session?
I can’t argue against the fact that it seems to work though :slight_smile:

It’s because after 4am GMT people in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are waking up and starting to trade. So while it’s still the Asian session, it’s a more active time in the Asian session. :slight_smile:

I have been watching this thread, reading all the contributions and making my own posts. :smiley:

But no trading. :stuck_out_tongue:

Maybe I should jump on board the bandwagon here. :cool:

You people do have one advantage over me - Your time zones are better placed for this currency pair.
I will have to get up at weird hours to set this up!! :frowning:

Tymen,

I think you have miscalculated the time period. I do my analysis, and place pending orders, right after midnight (New York time) , which is noon in Perth. Lately, my pending orders have been triggering between 2am and 3am (my time), which would be 2pm - 3pm your time. Altogether, a fine time to trade for you western Aussie chaps.

Phil, How did you apply the ATR 14 to backtest SL TP?
Can you post a chart from a backtest?
I am curious because I just think it should be possible to automate the back-testing process.
Clint/Tymen
Since Clint pointed out so nicely, that you (Tymen) are in the perfect convenient daytime time-zone for trading this system, how about we give you our accounts and you can place the trades for us so we don’t have to get up, or stay up, to place the trades. :smiley:
Happy Trading