Trevpik was on the money with ~5 pips since the candle “Sell” made only 11 pips after the order entry.
Looking at the chart this morning of course you can see there was much more in it later. Hindsight is always so nice. 
it is quite normal for a retracement sometimes when the highs or lows are breached, thats a part of trading, you could in hindsight place another order when the retracement comes back into the box but that is not always succesfull
the fib is showing resistance at around 1.6331which is true to form from the fridays highs to the overnight lows confirming at 23.6 of the fib i wreckon today is going to be bouncing inside the box untill 15:00 Gmt+1 when the house price index comes out,
there is alot of profit taking at the moment across most stock,futures and commodities and there is lots of uncertanty and rumors of lots of stock being in a over brought condition (we wont now this untill the quarterly figures are released)
dont take the overnight high trade becasue it right on the fib line of 38.2 so it could go either way if resistance kicks in at 1.6375 or around that area
Trev,
Did you trade your strategy last night (that is, at 5am London time on Tuesday)? If so, how did your Buy and Sell prices compare to mine (shown below in bold)?
Tuesday, 6/23/09, 5am BST (midnight EDT)
High Ask price in the “overnight” period 1.63684
Low Bid price in the “overnight” period 1.62642
Entry orders placed:
[B]Buy @ 1.6374[/B] (this order was not triggered, and was later canceled)
[B]Sell @ 1.6258[/B] (this order was triggered, see below)
My Sell Entry order was triggered. The G/U encountered tremendous buying pressure at 1.6250, which is not surprising, because this is a major quarter-point price. I didn’t like the price action there, and manually closed my short trade at 1.62518, for a small profit. The price retraced 73 pips above my Sell Entry price (43 pips above my SL), so I was glad to be out with + 6.2 pips. It could have been a 30-pip loss, if I hadn’t managed the trade.
Did you enter on the downside, as well? Did you get out before the retracement?
Clint
yes you did better than me i closed out at a 2 pip profit- i didnt take the high as i explained below i thought there might have been a bit more room on the low but there was lots of resistance so i got out,
unfortunatly you will get days like today but its not always like that
when you see the price jumping around the low like it was its better to take your profit and set your self up for another day, even thoe this strategergy is easy to set up Price Action is still always key to any succesfull Trade
Well done for getting out
Yes, that was just careless of me.
Not paying attention!! :o :o :o
Hmmmm.
Maybe I should become a hedge fund manager!!
I see you entered the sell at 258 and the low price from the extension was 264
You also made 6 pips.
I think I will enter immediately.
In this case that would give me 12 pips.
I will use the 2 amount strategy, go for 10 pips first amount.
That would have been fulfilled in this case.
The second amount, going for a targer profit of 30 pips would go nowhere and hit the reset break even stop loss to make zero profit.
It is possible to automate the backtesting, but I like do it manually. It does take a LOT more time, but you learn so much about the method your testing in the process. If you automate the testing all you get at the end are the results, but if you do it manually you can learn why the system works, or doesn’t work, and figure out ways to make it more profitable.
What I did was pop an ATR(14) indicator up on a daily chart and then type all the ATR values for each day into a spreadsheet. I then used a 5M chart to scroll forward through the year while reading the ATR’s off my spreadsheet.
Hello, Tymen
I’m just now reading your last post on this thread, which was more than 13 hours ago.
I’m not clear on what you were saying in that post.
Were you saying that [B]you were going to enter[/B] a trade 12 hours after the close of the “overnight” period?
Or were you saying that [B]you would have entered[/B] that trade, if you had been trading this strategy 12 hours earlier?
Clint
JFYI i am only taking the downside today guys ahead of the Fed Intrest Rate
there maybe a good head and shoulders formation- be carefull thoe- i can still never get my head around intrest rate days so tune in to bloomberg CAUTION is the key today!!!
Tymen = Baby Pips Fund Manager.
As far as success rate, as of late I’m at about 75-80%. But I can be down at 50% and still be profitable.
Well, I didn’t take your advice. Instead, I took the trade (on the buy-side). Worked out really well.
I really liked that line at 1.6477 (that was the high ASK price in the “overnight” period, on my FXCM chart).
And I figured the heavy-hitters would take a run at a huge cluster of buy-stops around the 1.6500 level. Which is exactly what they did, topping out at 1.6510 Ask.
Since I’m only going after 10 pips on each trade, a Buy Entry order at 1.6483 and a TP at 1.6493 looked like a good idea, and it worked.
Now I’m trying to decide whether to hang onto my Sell Entry order at 1.6401. I’m thinking that entry price is just too close to a big round number, so I’ll probably quit now, instead of going for a two-fer.
Did anyone else catch the trade on the upside?
Clint
i did take a trade on the upside but on a diffrent platform diffrent stratergy
i was a little unsure about the buy side under the overnight highs but never mind nothing gained nothing lost
Good Luck
Upside: yep, 21 pips for me today but that was based on 0700GMT start.
I’ll keep an eye on the short but having had the successful trade on this today, I probably won’t trade the other side. I closed it short of my 26pip target due to the previous resistance line but it broke through by a bit. meh.
This is what I would have done Clint!!
Ahhhh!!
Dreams!!
Lots of talk, but no action from me yet. :o
Spare me Please!! :eek:
Have Mercy
[B]Mercy!![/B]
This whole thing is starting to look a little scary!! :eek:
In the chart below, the white areas are, again, the trading times.
The max, mins, come from the pink areas.
I have changed the times to my own time zone. 
Easy trading to start with, at 12 noon - but I don’t like the finish at 2.00 am!!
Anyhow >>>
I have labelled two points where the trades are scary.
The trade is started, then a huge retrace requiring an infinite account to handle the drawdown.
Finally, the trade goes your way.
The second bite at the cherry may be the way to go!!
well this is were experiance kicks in
yesterday the highs, were smack on the technical price of the fib causing support and resistance right on the area we want a break thought neadless to say i did not take the trade
today is FED day need i say more any stratergy that has a 30 pip Sl is really going to cut the mustard when volitlity kicks in
i have lost twice with this stratergy befor both time were on days of massive news were tight stop losses just are no good, i still do trade on news days however im more carfull then any other days.
Tymen,
Regarding your chart, I notice that you have marked the High and the Low of the 10-hour “overnight” period (the pink area on your chart), and then you have identified problem areas where the market traded past those prices and then retraced.
The correct application of this strategy is to place Buy and Sell orders 6 pips above the High (of the pink area), and 6 pips below the Low (of the pink area), respectively. This helps to insure that a slight penetration of the High and Low lines (which are basically short-term support and resistance levels) will not trigger your Buy and Sell prices.
These 6-pip zones above the High and below the Low give the market some running room, but you need to make sure that the spread does not cut into one or the other of these zones. To accomplish that, I have added this tweak to Trevor’s strategy:
[B]I determine the High on a chart of ASK prices, and the Low on a chart of BID prices.[/B] This removes the spread from consideration.
If you draw additional lines on your chart, representing the Buy and Sell prices, 6 pips above and below your High and Low prices, and then make allowance for the spread (either my way, or some other way), I think you will find that the “scary” problem areas on your chart go away.
Clint
p.s.- it appears that your chart is a chart of BID prices, but I can’t be sure. On my FXCM platform, I am able to click a button and switch back and forth from BID prices to ASK prices on any chart, without losing the lines I have drawn, or any overlays or indicators. Are you able to do this on your platform?
Here is a MQ4 to show the Bid/Ask and the time in the candle left
Blur’s Prices&Time.zip (941 Bytes)