What was your sell at? My trades didn’t trigger so I have closed them out for the day.
1.62975 with 20 SL
fair enough. different broker’s price must have triggered your trade then.
Yeah, it was only by 1 pip it triggered the sell but one pip too many I guess!
I did not trade live tonight.(whew)Demo account took a hit even when i broke it into two trades.Triggered 1.648 stop loss on 2nd trade 20 points sl.One thing that helped was knowing this is usually high percentage play and the percentages are alerting me that somethings amist.What is the saying the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.I am going to stay in demo for the time being.My account as taken a 18% percent draw down. (not because of this method)
Everybody have great morning!
MArkets are exceptionally quiet this morning. Strange, it’s not like there’s an NFP report or anything coming out of the US. Maybe it’s the Unemployment Claims tomorrow?
There’s a $39 bn (5 year) US Treasury “Auction” today
Also U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner formally requested that Congress raise the $12.1 trillion statutory debt limit on Friday.
I did not trade last night either. I got in too late from work and was too sleepy to do any research.
Well I traded last night and lost, sucks, but what can you do except learn from it.
Well, this is the second time this week the Sell was triggered, then quickly retraced, only to perform the true breakout hours later.
I’m starting to think there’s two ways you play this, either you set a SL equivalent to the [I]other side of the high/low range[/I] or you just stick to a modest 10/20 PL/SL – which is what I’m considering.
Losing trade.
I believe that in North America the summer is alwys slower as many go on vacation etc.
Wondering if it is the same in London?
Wondering if perhaps the initial breakouts are running out of steam because of this? What do you guys think?
I have noticed that we do seem to get a successful secondary break out at times too.
Gee, the satellite is slow tonight, getting stuff from this forum to Australia.
Cannot even put the smilies in.
Anyhow, what I notice is that all the gun traders from this forum seem to be on this thread!!
Good trading to all !!
Just been brought to my attention in a PM that ‘enter trade’ doesn’t adequately cover it in my recent post on 5m bollinger bouncing strategy… doh! Its so much easier face to face. 
The idea of this strategy is to take pips on the retrace when price steps outside of the bollinger band. Please read this into the strategy.
She who must be obeyed has just anounced were off to Naples (Italy for you US folk) so catch up with you Sunday night. Good trading to all!
SanMiguel – WOW! That’s what I call backtesting! Sorry for being a couple of days late in commenting. It’s been really interesting to follow the discussion here, although I’ve been unable to trade for a few days. There was one thing that stuck to my eye when looking at those figures you gave. Firstly, I admit having been one of those that have attempted in using 2:1 R:R with low pips (SL=24, TP=12). When I started, it seemed that it worked. But recently quite the opposite, leading to experimenting with some other values as well. My problem is that I cannot nurse my trades, so I would need something more robust, while starting to abandon these values. That 20SL 10TP is one confirmation for this, notwithstanding that no human decision making is included in the results.
So there you have those interesting results 10SL 40TP and 10SL 50TP. There are roughly twice as much losses than there are wins - but R:R is 1:5. If this result pattern could hold over a longer period of time, you should have no problems in taking losing streaks like the recent ones, as a winning trade every now and then would pay you back.
Another thing that I like to look in the backtesting graphs is the slope of the accumulating profits. If the trend is steadily slightly upwards, it pleases me much more than quick jumps every now and then and then longer periods without any proper profit. These two “10s” meet this better than those like 50SL_50TP. (There’s one nasty drawdown, though, that I’d rather be without, but you cannot get everything.)
And one more thing that I think we must pay attention to: the risk per trade. All of those backtests made were done with the same position sizing. This means that the risk for 50SL trades is 5 times more than for the 10SL trades. When comparing those results in monetary terms, you should therefore not compare the profits shown, but rather scale them to values with the same risk. The 20SL 70TP has been mentioned as an interesting one, but I see it second to 10SL 50TP. The direct profit of 20SL 70TP was roughly 1.5 times bigger than that of 10SL 50TP, but if you divide the position size by two, the risk becomes comparable and the actual result of 10SL 50TP better.
Or am I talking potassium carbonate here?
Not to worry people, you’ll probably have the perfect set up tomorrow with me not doing it, I seem to bring a bit of bad luck to this strategy!
That is an interesting take on the results that I hadn;t even thought about…risk. I suppose with the 10:50 you are getting true breakouts but it doesn’t give much room for the trade to breathe at the breakout point.
It would be interesting to pick up some of the 10:50 trades and see what the breakout looked like or what the overnight period looked like.
When you look through them there are some surprising results between the balance of not allowing enough room on the stop loss and gunning for too much profit.
To all those worried about the losers recently, take note of these in the reports:
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins)
consecutive loss (count of losses)
For example, in the 20:40 the most times in a row losing trades happened in the last 3 months was 4. [B]It’s going to happen.[/B]
If you were using 30:10 - look how jumpy the graph is. Although the maximum consecutive losses is only 2 see those parts of the graph where the line’s overall path is in one direction or the other.
Four charts tell the story.
One of the symptoms of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result.
Trade setup for tonight
Long 1.6257
Short 1.6204
“”"(Clint quote) One of the symptoms of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result."""
Pity, we have no animated Icons, otherwise I would choose one banging my head against the wall. :D:D
Notes on the London Overnight Breakout Strategy for Thursday morning:
Pending news out of Britain will dominate the breakout this morning. The Nationwide Building Society House Price Index —
a high-impact report — will be released at 2am EDT (New York), 06:00 GMT, 7am BST (London). For details on this report,
go to Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory, and click the Detail icon opposite the name of the report.
We have to make a decision: either trade the news this morning, or stand aside. The GU will remain in limbo until this report is released, and then it will do what it will do. Here are the possibilities:
B[/B] the report is clearly bullish for the GBP, and the GU breaks upward, in which case our usual straddle is a safe strategy,
our Buy Entry order is triggered, and our Long position is limited out
B[/B] the report is clearly bearish for the GBP, the GU breaks downward, and we have a successful Short
B[/B] the report is ambiguous, or the report is too complex to be instantly evaluated, in which case the GU could whip-saw up and down, as traders try to position themselves; this could trigger one or both of our entry orders, and one or both of our stops
B[/B] the report is a wash-out, the market shrugs it off and waits for additional news coming out at 08:30 GMT, 10:00 GMT, and 12:30 GMT, in which case we have no trade-able breakout this morning
B[/B] alternatively, we can forego our Entry orders this morning, wait for the news release, and enter a trade on a market order,
if the reaction to the news warrants it
B[/B] or, we can stay out of the market altogether this morning
Here is the calendar for Thursday morning:
Resistance and Support:
I don’t think conventional S/R levels, or the channel boundary lines, will be factors affecting us this morning, unless you are looking for a very large TP (say 75 pips or more)
The Period HIGH is 1.6248. The Period LOW is 1.6211. The range is an extremely narrow 37 pips.
Entry Orders:
I will wait until closer to 2am (my time) to decide whether to trade this morning.
Good luck.
Clint
