I must admit to sitting here a little shell-shocked. A narrow trading range is supposed to be what we want, right? But then I see this range has been so tight it hasn’t deviated from this narrow high/low since 15:15 GMT! :eek:
I was going to go with a 10:20 ratio tonight and try to be conservative; at this point even a modest gain would be a little boost to morale. 
I am still trading the system on my demo account. I was going to try the system live later this week, but I have decided that I think it might have to wait a while. Maybe it is the time of year, maybe just the timing of what is going on right now. Who knows! I hope that the streak gets better soon! Before I started talking on here I tried it for a week with pretty good results. But, with these stop losses and limits, all the gains that I made were wiped out.
I hope things improve soon!
Regards,
Martin
This market is more news-driven than any other market (stocks, commodities, you-name-it). The timing of the upcoming news release is mostly responsible for this lull — news usually comes out of Britain at 4:30am EDT (08:30 GMT), but this one is coming out just as Europe opens. So, naturally, Europe won’t be inclined to do anything until after they see the news.
Asia has anticipated that Europe will be frozen in place until after the news, so they haven’t been motivated to stick their necks out, either.
Sometimes, just prior to big news, there is some volatility. We never know who is responsible for this, but one theory is that it’s traders who know (or think they know) something in advance of the official news release. In any case, I don’t want to get whip-sawed by that pre-news volatility, if I can help it. That’s why I’m still not in.
If the GU remains calm and well-behaved right up to just before 2am EDT, then I will place Entry Orders above and below the HIGH and LOW, as usual. But, this time, I will put really tight stops on: probably SL(10), so that if the news is [B]not[/B] clearly bullish or bearish, then any volatility resulting from the release will take me out with a minimal loss. On the other hand, if the news [B]is[/B] clearly bullish or bearish, then the GU should take off in one direction, or the other, without a whip-saw.
The GU is clearly showing a bias to the downside, while still remaining in its tight range. So, a clearly bearish news release would be perfect.
I’m not sure I want to trade the upside this morning — a news spike would have to carry the GU from the bottom of the range to the top, and then out of the range to my Entry price, and further to my TP. That may be too much to ask, with a close stop.
Anyway, that’s how it’s looking to me.
If you trade this puppy, be careful, and good luck.
Clint
Well the first piece of data is out. Not too much reaction so far.
Aug House prices rise +1.6% vs expected +0.5%.
You’re right about the reaction. Maybe the London opening will bring some life to this pair.
[B]Would you settle for banging your head on your keyboard?[/B]
Try this: http://www.avatarist.com/avatars/Various/Computers-&-Internet/Banging-head-on-desk.gif
Hi, Martin
I agree with that plan. My opinion of demo accounts is that they serve two vital functions: (1) they give you a safe place to learn the ins and outs of your broker’s platform, and (2) they give you a safe place to practice a strategy that you like until you become consistently profitable with that strategy.
If you are losing play-money in a demo account, you can’t expect to start making real-money profits using the same strategy in a live account.
Conquer the strategy in your demo account first, and then go live. And expect to do [B]worse[/B], initially, in your live account than you were doing in your demo account — because the emotional factors are totally different. Even if your live account is tiny, and you think the amounts you are risking are trivial, initially you will still react differently to real-money profits and losses than you did to play-money profits and losses.
Not everyone agrees with my opinion on demo accounts. In fact, I’ve heard some traders say that you should get off demo as soon as you have mastered the mechanics of your platform.
But, I think those traders would agree with me on this: when you first go live, you should start with a small account balance, and trade tiny positions. That way, if it turns out that you jumped into live trading prematurely, and you subsequently blow up your account, you can start over with minimum damage to your bank account, and your ego.
That’s my two pips: make it work in demo first; then go live, and start small.
Clint
Seems like those Asian session traders who were pushing the price around 5-6GMT and the London traders have gone amiss this week. Even yesterday bif moves did not happen until the NYSE opened.
Like that too.
2 disappointing nights for me. yesterday jumped ship in the morning when I had 1 pip and now I jumped ship with 9 pips.
See you tonight.
Clint is right, real money has an impact on your head. Even though I started small with onl $50 it still makes me mad and dissapointed when I loose a dollar and excited when I win one.
I didn’t trade the breakout last night because of the news. However I entered a short sell not long after the news and got about 30 pips profit right now as I type. Undecided whether to close it out there or let it ride for a while.
Edit: Closed out at +25, good thing too, price turned up right after that.
Had a win last night and if I get a win tonight I’ll break even for the week, this is my first week of loss or BE, can’t complain though, nothings perfect.
Got my 10 TP on the short last night, so I am happy. However, it also appears a 20:30 Sell would have been successful. Now it looks like a new support and resistance downward channel is being established as part of the overall downward trend of this pair.
What caused the big spike up about 18:00GMT any ideas?
I have no idea; I checked the news and anything of import was released earlier in the day. But I have been having a blast riding it all day.
Someone should have told them the breakout happens at 5-8GMT - they’re 12 hours or so early.
Hey Clint
you get those news items from forexfactory dont you? Is there a tutorial or something, I was wondering what the columns mean. Actual, Forcast, & previous.
If you click on each item, you get more explanation. For instance, the big GBP deal today evidently was CBI Realized Sales. If you click the small folder to the left of the actual/forecast/previous columns it will expand and clarify what it means for price if something is more or less than expectation.
[B]Usual Effect[/B] Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Hey, guys
I won’t be with you on the Forum tonight. I’ll catch up with you tomorrow or Sunday.
Good luck with your trades.
Clint
I ran out of patience last night with slow movement of the currency and had errands to do so i turned the computer off and took off to 24 hr stores.
I see some people made some pips great.Will continue demoing tonight and trying different money mangement techniques.I see Clint is leaving us in the pool by ourselves this mourning:eek:I will continue to dog paddle and float on my back if i have too, but the last week i have been taking in water.
I wish everybody good luck and good trading tonight!
