I’m no chartist like Clint but here’s a brief stab at it
It’s breaking up out of a chanel that it’s been in for about 5 days. I still wonder what caused the spike up at the end of the day today? I don’t count that down spike yesterday as part of the chanel. Now that it’s broken out, will it continue up? It’s bumping up agains 6300. So some resistance there.
I’m guessing a dip in prices around 2am, 8am and 14:00 gmt
yeah, I know, predicting is for fools, and I are one.
Oh yea, two high impact news items in the at 8:30 and 9:30…
Two days I don’t like, Monday and Friday,
edit:… there’s the 2am dip, happend while I was typing.
Using 2:30 pm EST to 12 midnight I get (removes the large run up near the beginning)
Low 1.6260
High 1.6304
Currently the price is at 1.6266 so it is near the second time period low.
I will be use 1.6260 and 1.6304 for the low and high. It appears to be a more normal trading range for the “pre” break out period and I think excluding the first half hour should be fine.
definately I would not include the spike as the low. Price would have to move a long way down to break out past that. And if it drops that far from where it is right now you would miss all that move.
Not meaning to hijack or anything but here’s something you may be interested in trying during our overnight peroid. I’ve noticed that price often drops during this period. so how about sell when price is at the upper bollinger band and close when it reaches the lower? I did that last night for a few pips. Tonight would have been worth about 25pips but I missed it, see the yellow line that highlights the move. Using a line chart instead of candles so it’s easier to see in the picture.
Yes. Another loss today. It hit the buy price, going over the buy price by just 4 pips, and then right after started its climb down to eventually hit my SL.
Hoping that come the first or second week of September that things will get back to normal.
It will get worse because more and more FIAT get’s pumped into FOREX for ultra short-term speculation moving between currencies, equities and commodities. That increases volatility and makes predicting direction of price even more difficult. The time spans where price will move in any direction will decrease in proportion with the increase of speculative FIAT floating around.
i stopped trading on tuesday im now waiting for clear signs that breakouts are like they were, so i might not be trading for a few weeks yet
unless i can spot another entry point with diffrent rules that give positive pips inbetween
maybe some of you would like to look at GBP/JPY as that has had better results this week, my broker has just changed to non fixed spreads so i need to pay more attention to if its going to be a bennifit or not
Plan your trade,trade your plan.Traded differently tonight made biggest profit on demo of course:rolleyes:Will see where it takes me in the next couple of months.The method is acting differently so i guess we better adjust.
well my predicted 8am dip happend an hour early, on the bright side, I made 40 pips on the upswing after that. I didn’t trade the breakout last night. mainly because it was Friday and I was just kind of uncertain about it.
have a great weekend everybody, maybe next week will be better !
Well yes, being nimble would have definitly helped this past week. But this is a break out strategy that has appeared to work very well in the past so I hoping its success changes soon - which I think it will.
It looked really dead last night and I decided to not even try for my 10:20 ratio. Sure enough, such a long would have triggered at 2:45 am EST, then promptly retraced far enough to have stopped me out again.
Like every other night this week, the true breakout occurs after the first, smaller breakout - which seems to be killing everyone using this strat this week.
The only answer to insuring a higher win percentage seems to be increasing your SL to nearly touch the other side of the range (which is substantially more risk). In order to make that proposition attractive, it also seems like you’d want a much higher TP, at minimum half the SL, I should think. Take last night with a range of about 40 pips, if you’d set your TP:SL at 20/40 you’d have been golden.
I’d have to pull all the other charts, but it seems that taking a SL equal to or greater than 70-100% of the charted range essentially guaranteed wins on any of the breakouts that occurred. Such a SL would have saved all our trades this week which were faked out on the first, smaller move that occurred during the first hour of the breakout.
My theory makes this either a much safer trade or a much riskier one - depending on how you view it. The rare loss would certainly be much greater, but the extremely high win percentage should mean a great many more wins on a consistent basis. [I]It all depends on how you see the London breakout phenomenon and whether you are convinced it is a pattern which does consistently occur on a daily basis.[/I]
My order (buy at 1.6304 + 9) got triggered at about 2:45 EDT - about 8 hours ago when sell price hit 1.63138 (buy price hit 1.6316 to 1.6317). It then went down and triggered my stop loss. Looks like you just missed it by maybe 1 pip becasue you added an extra 4 pips as compared to me.
I see you add an extra 4 pips to your buy price? So you are actually adding 13 pips to your buy price vs the rest of us, I think, that are only adding 9 pips.
Why are you adding 13 pips total to the buy price? From my understanding we are already covering the spread by adding 3 pips to the buy price more than the sell price.
