Win ratio

[Firstfx]

Ok, I reran these for September.
I didn’t include August as we all know that was a losing month due to the last 2 weeks in August. The first week or so in September was pretty low volume as well but has picked up recently.
Remember this is only over 20 trades or so in the month so hardly conclusive evidence but it begins to point at exactly the same stuff as before, notably that the R:R must be more than 1:1 preferably 1:2 to make a profit at this unless you are using some kind of flexible method to adjust your SL on the fly like momentum changes.
Keep in mind there were some big trending moves this month leading to the profits.

20SL40TP: Results
20SL50TP: Results
20SL60TP: Results
note here that just going for that extra 10 pips seems to dramatically cut the profit factor.

30SL10TP: Results
30SL30TP: Results

30SL5TS: Results
trailing stop doesn’t seem to work well at the moment

I can try some in between numbers like 22/50, 24/48, if needed.

Great work.

Can you try 40tp/40sl and 50tp/30sl

[SanMiguel]

Great work.

Can you try 40tp/40sl and 50tp/30sl

40:40
30:50

Surprisingly, 20SL48TP was more successful than 2050
Hardly conclusive over 20 trades though…
20:48

Compound interest can make a large difference to the profitable months as well.

[Firstfx]

40:40
30:50

Surprisingly, 20SL48TP was more successful than 2050
Hardly conclusive over 20 trades though…
20:48

Compound interest can make a large difference to the profitable months as well.

One more,

50sl/30tp

Thanks

[SanMiguel]

One more,

50sl/30tp

Thanks

Did you see 30/10 above? Same principle, less than 1:1.

[Firstfx]

Did you see 30/10 above? Same principle, less than 1:1.

Yes, but there was a period where 50sl/30tp was working very well (where 30sl was not enough but 50sl was good).

[SanMiguel]

Yes, but there was a period where 50sl/30tp was working very well (where 30sl was not enough but 50sl was good).

Correct, I can’t remember running that one although it was profitable in July, it was breakeven in June, a loss in August and September is below:

50:30

[seans]

Thanks SanMiguel. These results are very useful. I’ve been using 30:30 but will do more work on 2040. Is there any chance of running 20:40 over a longer period?

Regards
Sean

[TalonD]

1.5908 to 1.5926 for tonight.
Unless we get candles outside that, it’s still a little early yet.

picture attached. orange lines are my upper and lower borders. other horizontal lines are pivot points.

remember, if price hits a pivot point it will either go up towards the next PP or down towards the previous PP (thats from the school )

but seriously, even though I kind of eyeball the last narrowest most horizontal few candles, I notice those orange lines also kind of line up with previous candle tops and bottoms earlier in the night and even some before the nightly range.

Also, wouldn’t trade it tonight for two reasons, thursdaynight/fridaymorning and news day tomorrow.

[Firstfx]

Yes, big news out tomorrow and its a Friday to boot.

Non farm payroll number out tomorrow for the US and it can have a major impact on the US $ pairs.

[SanMiguel]

Thanks SanMiguel. These results are very useful. I’ve been using 30:30 but will do more work on 2040. Is there any chance of running 20:40 over a longer period?

Regards
Sean

If you go back through the posts there are some results from May, June, & July. I didn’t go back further than this because:
1/ Daylight savings time would mean some changes to the tester and I haven’t yet implemented that
2/ The markets have changed somewhat since April and then again since about October 2008 when the � dropped.

I think testing in month and quarterly chunks provides as close an indication of current conditions as we are going to get for this method.
Remember, it is a no frills strategy test - no thinking about channels, S/R, whether we only take shorts/longs on a particular day, news spikes, etc.

[seans]

Could someone help with how I account for the spread?

I’m working off a bid chart and have a stop at 20 pips and profit target at 40 pips.

For my long entry, I understand you just add the spread to the buy price and then place your stop 20 pips away and PT at 40 pips away.

My confusion is with the short. I understand you place the short entry as shown on the chart, but do you add the spread to the stop and PT on a short. So say the spread is 3, would the stop on a short be 23 pips and the PT be 43?

[SanMiguel]

Could someone help with how I account for the spread?

I’m working off a bid chart and have a stop at 20 pips and profit target at 40 pips.

For my long entry, I understand you just add the spread to the buy price and then place your stop 20 pips away and PT at 40 pips away.

My confusion is with the short. I understand you place the short entry as shown on the chart, but do you add the spread to the stop and PT on a short. So say the spread is 3, would the stop on a short be 23 pips and the PT be 43?

Are you using Metatrader? It should be the same for whatever software but the spread only needs to be added to BUY orders since most charts show the bid price as the current price. This is because to initiate a buy, the ask price of the spread is used whereas to initiate a sell the bid price is used.

[SanMiguel]

Are you using Metatrader? It should be the same for whatever software but the spread only needs to be added to BUY orders since most charts show the bid price as the current price. This is because to initiate a buy, the ask price of the spread is used whereas to initiate a sell the bid price is used.

Speaking of which…we’ve all had a lot of discussion based around the SL and TP strategies. We’ve been using 6 pips as the buffer since the beginning, we could have a look at that and see whether 5 or 10 makes any difference - I’m guessing it’s marginal.

[R_Carter]

I’ve been following this thread for a few months now and from time to time posted my thoughts.

The main problem with this strategy as I see it is factoring the overnight high and lows into the trade too early in the evening. I understand of course everyone has a bed to go to (I’m thinking here of our US cousins re: London open) but if you can either set your alarm clock or become an owl then the ‘Win Ratio’ with the correct settings will return to around the 90%.

I would be happy to post the method of calculating the entry and time here of its of interest?

[TalonD]

I’ve been following this thread for a few months now and from time to time posted my thoughts.

The main problem with this strategy as I see it is factoring the overnight high and lows into the trade too early in the evening. I understand of course everyone has a bed to go to (I’m thinking here of our US cousins re: London open) but if you can either set your alarm clock or become an owl then the ‘Win Ratio’ with the correct settings will return to around the 90%.

I would be happy to post the method of calculating the entry and time here of its of interest?

While I’m just trading our other method R. I’m still watching this. I’d be interested in seeing your idea of entry time.

from my last few posts you all can see I’ve been focusing on the last narrow horizontal pa near… well near my bed time and that seems to work pretty good. The tricky thing about this whole idea is you have get a range narrow enough to break out of but if it’s too narrow then you get killed by small fluctuations that aren’t the real breakout. It’s hard finding that balance.

[R_Carter]

[B]TalonD[/B]

There are two London ‘Breakout’ strats that I use. I will post my favourite one over the weekend on a new thread under [I]Free Forex Trading Systems[/I], entitled [B]‘London Breakout 1’[/B].

Its bare candle trading like this thread but has historically been good for a 90% win ratio.

[ferdoko]

How much is VaLaki.ex4?
And where can i buy it?

thanks

[R_Carter]

[B]TalonD[/B]

Just posted [B]‘London Breakout 1’ [/B]in Free Forex Trading Systems. Even managed to upload a chart!

Have fun.

[kaalilaatikko]

I have to stick to the version in this thread, as the version 1 does not fit with my daily schedule, unfortunately. This week it is time to switch to applying 20-48. I took the advice from the backtests and lowered my initially intended target by 2 pips. So, today long at 1.6014, TP 1.6062, SL 1.5994. I skip the short trade because of the direction of the current mini-trend and the jump a couple of hours ago.

Using fixed TP/SL is much quicker than calculating them from the overnight range, and there is much less subjectivity involved. I like it this way more.

Two red news releases today. The last two times these two (Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) took place, they were profitable trading days.

[SanMiguel]

I have to stick to the version in this thread, as the version 1 does not fit with my daily schedule, unfortunately. This week it is time to switch to applying 20-48. I took the advice from the backtests and lowered my initially intended target by 2 pips. So, today long at 1.6014, TP 1.6062, SL 1.5994. I skip the short trade because of the direction of the current mini-trend and the jump a couple of hours ago.

Using fixed TP/SL is much quicker than calculating them from the overnight range, and there is much less subjectivity involved. I like it this way more.

Two red news releases today. The last two times these two (Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) took place, they were profitable trading days.

2 wins, 3 losses this week?