again I just selected the last few most horizontal candles highlited in orange. rather than the whole overnight, just something I’m trying. the false break up would have been about 20 pips all together and would have been a winner. Of course the real break was the big down move.
Hi,
I’ve been following this thread for a few days, admittedly haven’t read the whole thing yet. I think it’s important to watch for other technical factors besides just the breakout. For example, last night I caught the big down move for +108pips - but not because of the breakout. My trade was based on a fibb. retracement. So for example, yesterday I would’ve only been looking for breakouts to the downside due to the significant fibb. level on the upside B/O.
Looks like a nice system and works well time-wise for me, as London opens at about 7pm local time. So I normally sit down after tea just as the London market opens. I’m planning to adapt this system to my own personal rules and risk preferences. As has been said already in this thread, and in so much trading, I think the real success will come down to the trades you chose [I]not[/I] to take. Perhaps combining the LBS with other key technical tools like fibb levels and some kind of momentum indicator could be a good way to identify those crucial ‘stay out’ signals, or even signalling to only look for a break in one direction.
cheers,
Mike
Hi, Mike
Welcome to this thread. We’re glad to have new faces and new ideas.
If you can suggest indicators that are capable of telling us when to stay out of this strategy, by all means, bring it on.
We all have tinkered with the original concept of this strategy, adjusting the stops and limits, adding S/R and trendlines to the analysis, etc. Some of this tinkering has made the strategy more consistent, and some hasn’t. The strategy remains a work in progress, and experimentation is encouraged.
The original version of the strategy, first introduced here by Trevor (TREVPICK001) back in June, was absolute [I]naked trading[/I]: no charting techniques, except drawing the “box”; no S/R, trendlines, or channels; and no indicators of any kind. In that plain-vanilla form, the strategy had a remarkable win-loss record in the early part of the year — hence, the name of this thread, [B]Win Ratio.[/B]
The [I]naked trading[/I] aspect made this strategy very useful for brand-new newbies, who knew little or nothing about technical analysis. But, market conditions have changed since the first quarter of the year, and we all sense that we need to adapt the strategy accordingly. Your input in that regard will be most welcome.
(Besides, naked trading hasn’t been nearly as much fun with these guys, as it would have been with Megan Fox and a bunch of
her friends.)
Again, welcome.
Clint
p.s. — Your time zone indicates that you’re in New Zealand. Don’t forget to turn your clocks ahead on Sunday.
Wow, nobody here anymore, the “plague” hit this thread. 
So here is the “revival” setup:
Long 1.5920
Short 1.5850
Happy Trading All.
It has kind of died down a lot, Clint was kind of the glue holding it together. but there’s plenty of information here for anyone to take off and fly with it. I’m still trying the shortest horizontalist area rather than the whole range.
1.5905 to 1.5927 are my lines for the range.
didn’t trade it last night but using my smaller range the break up would have been good for 15 or 20 pips and the break down good for about 40
anyone still doing the breakout?
here’s my range for the night.
1.6007 to 1.6033
last narrow part
looking for 10 pips either way, probably to the up side.
I’ve been following, but have not actually traded it.
I haven’t been trading it but following closely.
The last 2 weeks have had some very strong moves out of the latter part of the Asian session, which is what was happening back in June & July so all looks back to “normal”.
TBH, I’m just looking for a minimum 20pips a day so I don’t want to trade more than 1 or 2 systems at the same time. For the strategy I use on the breakout, I really do class it as a 50:50 system. Really we should be looking at the price channels and S/R and saying things like, I’m only taking longs on this system tomorrow, etc. As it is we’re still trading the box, a pseudo support/resistance area without any real idea of which way price is going to go. Whilst I earnt a decent amount of money on this in June & July, I lost a lot in August because of the reduced volume during that period…once bitten twice shy and all that - just want to follow it for a few more days before deciding
TalonD,
I’m trading it based on 30+30-. I had a win today, a loss yesterday and no trade on Monday.
My range today was 16032 and 15931.
Regards
Sean
Just checking into this thread to post my results. I’ve been traded 20TP 30SL since the beginning, and I’m in the overall positive although the past two weeks have been breakeven weeks. I’m going to do some more research over the weekend and test out some other things to add to this system.
The month is over. I promised to make a summary about my results with LBS/B/1. I ended roughly at BE. If you want to see some more details, I think the essential can be read in some earlier posts. The month started well, but the losing trades ate up the profits. When there is a good streak of winning trades, this system performs well, but it has started to seem that this is not the best LBS system available. I’ve done some studying about the impact of news and comparing the performance of LBS/B/1 against LBS/20-50/1 after the eye-opener by SanMiguel. The winning and losing days have matched at least in August and September surprisingly well, so I’m leaning now towards the latter system.
About the news: the small amount of data I have examined (two months is not enough) is hinting that in addition to the heavyweight news (NFP at least, FOMC not sure, bank rates not sure) the days with a big number of high-impact news need to be avoided, whereas at least PMI report days have been profitable. The unemployment claims are released every week, and the success of those days varies a lot. So, tomorrow there is a big number of red news, but two PMIs and the unemployment claims, and the pending home sales report has neither been that critical - maybe tomorrow is a trading day after all.
[B] I’m very new to the Forex, so I have a lot of basic questions:[/B]
I think what this strategy does is apply the breakout parameters based on the lowest low and the highest high during low volume hours.
I think the High volume hours are between 2am and 11am Central U.S. Time, so I guess the the London Open is at 2am Central U.S. time…
If this is correct, I am looking for the highest high and the lowest low between 11am and 2am?
Is the time displayed on my MetaTrader 4 London time?
When is the open based London Time?
Do I have to be up at 2am to set my Pending Orders? Thus, being able to capture highs and lows for the entire “low volume” time period?
[B]
Thanks,
Spriggz
Since Friday is NFP day and I won’t be trading, I’m going to rerun some of those tests for SL and TP. I don’t want to rerun the whole lot again as it take a fair bit of effort but wondering if there are any specific ones people want included? I’ll run it for August though I suspect that will have bad results as we all found and I’ll run it for September as well.
My inkling is that the SL should be at least 20 and R:R at least 1:2 but I’ll run a few of the old ones like 30:10 anyway.
So:
30SL 5TS
30SL 10TP
30SL 30TP
30SL 60TP
20SL 40TP
20SL 50TP
20SL 60TP
any others?
I can try out TALOND’s tactic of the just the last few candles as well but I’m not sure what you were doing with that one exactly mate - 3hrs, 4hrs, whatever looks flattest?
Central is what…5hrs behind GMT?
Trades are entered at 4am GMT including the high/low at that candle.
4am GMT is 11pm central time.
The strategy is not really to trade London open, it’s a little bit of a misnomer calling it London breakout as Frankfurt opens before that but most of the big moves happen either at Frankfurt open or London open hence I think where wit got the link.
The strategy is to get the high and low of the low volume period, which is basically the latter part of the NY session and most of the Asian session.
Frankfurt’s time zone is GMT+2 or one hour later than London. London opens at 7 am GMT (8am London time) so are you saying that Frankfurt opens at about 6 GMT (7am London time). Sounds right?
I always wondered where that 6 am GMT jump in price came from. Would any other area add to that initial 6 am GMT jump other than Frankfurt?
Hi, Spriggz
I’ll answer your questions in order:
We don’t concern ourselves with a “high volume” period. What we are concerned with is a particular 10-hour set-up period, followed by a breakout period. The 10-hour set-up period, which we refer to as the “overnight” period is defined as 7pm-5am London time. The breakout period is roughly the 5 hours, or so, following the “overnight” period, with breakouts typically occurring between 6:30am and 8:30am London time.
No, you want to find the highest high and lowest low in the “overnight” period, 7pm-5am London time, which is 1pm-11pm central time.
Here’s a table which might help you to fix these time periods in your mind: 301 Moved Permanently
Your MT4 probably displays either Central European Summer Time (CEST), which is U.S. central daylight time + 7 hours, or British Summer Time (BST), which is U.S. central daylight time + 6 hours, depending on which broker furnished your MT4 platform. If your broker is Alpari, then your MT4 platform uses CEST for its clock. If your broker is FXCM-UK, then your MT4 platform uses BST for its clock.
I don’t know what you are asking here. If you’re asking when the business day begins in London, that would be 8am London time, 2am your time. If you’re asking when the “overnight” period begins in London, that would be 7pm London time, 1pm your time.
No, you have to be up at 11pm central time to place your orders.
As for drawing vertical lines on your MT4 chart, first determine the offset from your local time (central daylight time) to your platform time. As mentioned above, this will be either 6 hours or 7 hours in your case. Then draw vertical lines on your chart corresponding to 1pm and 11pm your time.
Clint
Thanks Clint! That is exactly what I was looking for =D.
basically just what looks flatest to my eye so it’s kind of subjective. Looks like it’s been around 20 to 25 pips between high and low when I do that.
Looking back seems to be maybe last hour or two at most? I’ve been looking at a 15m chart.
may not post it tonight though, kind of wore out, going to bug out early.
Ok, I reran these for September (strategy tester assumes a lot size of 1, account $10k for comparison purposes - you don’t need to trade these sizes).
I didn’t include August as we all know that was a losing month due to the last 2 weeks in August. The first week or so in September was pretty low volume as well but has picked up recently.
Remember this is only over 20 trades or so in the month so hardly conclusive evidence but it begins to point at exactly the same stuff as before, notably that the R:R must be more than 1:1 preferably 1:2 to make a profit at this unless you are using some kind of flexible method to adjust your SL on the fly like momentum changes.
Keep in mind there were some big trending moves this month leading to the profits.
20SL40TP: Results
20SL50TP: Results
20SL60TP: Results
note here that just going for that extra 10 pips seems to dramatically cut the profit factor.
30SL10TP: Results
30SL30TP: Results
30SL5TS: Results
trailing stop doesn’t seem to work well at the moment
Surprisingly, 20SL48TP was more successful than 2050
Hardly conclusive over 20 trades though…
20:48Compound interest can make a large difference to the profitable months as well.