u entered when price reached the aqua ema? if u look at the vol u can see demand comin in, cos price isn t continuing down. u could ve waited for the top to break, pullback and enter then. what i d do if i was u, have an hourly setup, once that forms, then switch to 5 or 15m and find another setup there in the direction of the hourly. also SL placement should t be 2 large, but that would mean that u gonna enter at a point where price shouldn t mess around anymore unless news and stuff. u ad divergence there, but if the hrly is up, then that means little. anyways, stick with whatever it is ur trading, eventually u ll suceed.
cheers
No I entered on the first high of your double top analysis. I almost always get. the direction right, I only have to finetune my entry. I was very bullish and GU did rally up, but I entered a bit too early unfortunately.
how was the hrly loooking? do u have a screen at the exact same moment u took the 15m setup? lol wait, that was thursday, i was looking at yesterday
we had way more sellers till that point then buyers, then some buyers showed up, and on thursday that vol increase was actually weakness looking on 5m. so they did the 50 fib pullback. i use for trend trades 50 to 618 retrace, if price doesn t do that then no tradeā¦except for the fake breaks ofc,. u can say u was just unlucky.
i lose trades also, i bet warren buffet losses to, there s no way to predict 100% where price will go each time. the thing is that if u r trying to catch the the move early, u run the risk of getting hunted cos that s just what they do. that s why break and retest of a level has way more odds of succeding. anyways, it s just a trade, 1 of many. that shouldn t bother u that much. if u don t like volume or ur not comfortable using it, then don t. u can be quite succesful even without, but u gotta work on ur entries like u said.
Hi,
I look forward with great interest to reading your journal. And I commend you for making the right-size decision to open a 1K Euro account. For each of us that is a difficult decision - when to move from a no-impact demo account to an impact making real account. For some that will be a significant outlay. For others, barely a blip on the overall scheme of things. I did put up with a demo account second time around, but it goes against my overall (JFDI) philosophy to play for too long with a subject matter before diving in and doing it. I commend you, first for your decision to enter, but more so for your braver decision to unilaterally decide to put yourself under public scrutiny. That should have the desired impact of making sure you question your setups and entries very closely with your plan before you make a rookie mistake that you will have to explain to an audience perhaps more keen to point out errors than to see the bigger picture. Best of luck with it, my friend.
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Hi,
Thanks a lot for the kind compliment. Trading with real money has made me progress very fast, in terms of money management and my psychology. When I look at my post in June (seen above), I was feeling very anxious and I could not keep my eyes off the screen when in a trade. Also, when I won, I felt I had won the lottery, but when I lost it messed up my whole day.
Now I am way more flat on my emotions, both when I win and when I lose. I have become a better objective trader, rather than a subjective trader. In my opinion, trading with a demo account would not have make me this much progress. I probably would have become better in making entry decisions and a bit of trade management, but not the real deal. And thatās what Iām aiming for.
Goodluck with your fast track trading journal as well,
Happy trading!
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These are the strength and weakness points I am seeing on GU, would you classify this as a bit indecisive since there are both volume spikes on both higher and lower prices. Or is this bullish because the bullish volume spikes are bigger compared to the sellers volumes.
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yes, that s an accumulation. say u are already looking to buy based on 1hr chart, that s what u wanna see on 5 or 15m also.low vol on the up moves and high vol on the down moves (candles). cheers
wonderful, you have genuinely sparked my interest in this again. Iāll first get my entries under control with this system, and then incorporate volume. I trade a lot of divergence, which basically is wyckoff his accumulation and mark-up moves etc. I think volume can contribute to picking out the good and the bad trades. Taking it one step at a time 
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Thatās a really smart observation about how your trading has changed. Nice work. Following along.
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An other loss this week, not on my a game lately. Taking some trades slightly off edge. Took a trade on US bank holiday, that isnāt against the rules but the trade itself was not off the highest probability.
Hey, I am curious what happened here? This pair has been ranging for almost a month now, did you not notice that? Or were you expecting a breakout? I myself (along with my signals group) traded within the range a couple times last week, managed to get two 90 pip trades short from the1.8972 area
Yes I was aware of the range, I didnāt traded it for a breakout necessarily. I think a lot about my trades, analyse them in my head etc etc. After every weekend Iām up for a fresh start and I wonāt make the same mistakes, then I somewhat force a trade with my own confirmation bias that sets me up for a loss at the beginning of the week. I just realised I did that for 3 weeks in a row now. Just took an other loss on EN. Just became aware of this weird loop Iām in. Make a loss on a Monday, donāt trade the rest of the week because I am then extremely picky.
Had a look at these results. You have a good number of trades to see how your method is performing here. Something has to change here. Either you find a way to get your gains higher to keep up with the low success rate of 33% or you increase your success rate to maintain the gains you are taking.
Have a look at one of my newer students results last coupl weeks as a example to see how he has similar success rate but his RR kept him in the green, despite all the mistakes he made. :
Number of trades: 8 (3 winners, 5 losers)
Success rate: 37.5%
Reward to risk ratio (Avg winner/ Avg Loser): 2.1R
Total return 3 weeks: 1.3R (0.65%)
Biggest winner: 3R (1.50%)
Biggest loser: -1R (0.50%)
Hi,
I started to use this strategy with real money right away. So I was a complete beginner when I took my first trade using this strategy, normally you backtest first, use a demo and when you are profitable with the strategy you go live. So the data is a bit skewed since I skipped the first two stages. Besides my trading I am backtesting the strategy itself, backtest new ideas within the strategy, journal trading results, analyse my psychology in a trading journal and I keep an online journal on babypips to document my journey. My intention is not to show off or justify anything, just to document my journey.
How long did it take you to become consistently profitable?
Tracking and journaling is definitely the best so good on you.
To answer your question, i left a short intro here if you havenāt read that yet
I am a rare case because what i did was cram my learning curve in addition to having a legendary mentor. It took me about 2 months to find consistent profits but in hours about roughly 900 hours (60 days * 15 hours).
This is great to hear. It took me over 20 years to even learn about confirmation bias, let alone do anything positive with it. In my case, it was a huge overinvestment in highly leveraged property that we are now deleveraging, not Forex, that cost me more than anything else. Leverage is great, but only when you are sure that the total amount risked is within your plans to recover from.
As mentioned before, took one loss on EN last Monday.
Oh yes I totally agree. Trading is such an interesting dynamic between the markets and your own psychology. When you first trade the markets you feel overwhelmed and anxious, hoping to feel more confident about your trading. When you finally feel confident in your trading you fall in your own confirmation bias and puts you right in to your spot again. Finding a good balance between being a confident trader but be very aware of the pitfalls of having too much confidence is key when I look back on these past 3/4 months.
There is a natural progression Iāve observed in not only other traders but even my students. Itās the move into confidence, then fall into pride and ego. Both of these lead to overconfidence and loss in logic and humility, which are both key trading virtues, especially in creative trading styles. I can spot this pattern in traders like clock-work that as soon as they start doing well, they are like that 5th-wave, they risk collapse. There are more rags to riches to rags stories in trading that happens behind the scenes.The secret has and always will be humility, itās not about what you think you see, itās about reading what the market is showing and offering.
Couldnāt agree more!