Last week trading results, I finally took a trade on GCAD. I’ll share the trade and my journal entry for once. Because it’s been three weeks, I didn’t want to take a loss. So I broke my exit rules, I would have ended up with a bigger profit if I just followed my exit rules, anyway, still nice to see a small win after three weeks.
before every trade i teach my students to consider the trade a loss. You need to be willing to lose if you ever hope to win. If you ever hope to achieve what your plan is statistically suppose to bring you, you can only do that by following it. Also you will never know which one of the series of trades will be a loser until it is so you have to accept the loss every single time for every single trade in the series.
I agree, the outcome of 1 trade should not impact you in any way.
hi dude, i see ur still kinda struggling. payed or otherwise material, strategy etc. i d like to point out a simple and yet very powerful aproach, that uses volume, and a macd for divergence with these settings 8.13, 5. trade simply double bottoms or double tops (or upthrusts!!! springs in ranges) cos that s ussually sign the range is over and we re ready to mark down or up.
4 simple rules
a) the double top or double bottom must show clear divergence
b) u have 2 have a fake brreak of the low or high and the very next candle must close back inside the range.
c)u need a bear or bull pin or an engulfment.(2 bar reversal and 3 bar reversals can also be used).
d) if ur planing to short, u have to have weakness confirmed on the first top (and preferably some vol increase on the second).same for buys(u need the strenght on the down bars with the result).
pls backtest this market aproach on any currency, index, stock, whatever u like to trade.
check out how much u could ve made just trading this simple setup only this past week.
i trade gold, oil, pound pairs, few euro majors, AJ, AU and NJ NU.
risk only 1% per trade or whatever risk in % ur comfortable with, SL goes just above the fake break(which should also be the high or low and ofc add the spread to that). targets are ussually next support or resist, swings low or high etc.
pls don t misunderstand my post as i m not selling anything. nor i ve wasted my time to write this just to look more smart then i acctually am…i m simply trying to share(for free) a market aproach that yelds consistency, great risk to reward and high probability (win ratio). again, pls do me this favor and backtest this atleast for the week that passed, and let me know what are ur results. i for example lost 1 trade only this week on EU
the 1 thing that wasn t perfect was the divergence as it was extended ussually u want to conect the closest peaks or troughs. as u can see in the pic, the div wasn t on the closest swings of macd but on the furthest.tha s good to avoid. it still came back after kicking me out and played out to a certain point but losing trades do exist. also the fact that we re in the election period. my advoce would be to let the major news pass for 15 or 20m, and then trade, or if u are already in a trade and u was able to set BE, the let it be, as the background ussually plays out no matter the news.(that s why vol is important).
if u have question, just tag and i ll try my best to answer them. just give this a shot, 1or 2 hours to look thro the charts and backtest it, and see if it s something that may suit you. btw, every timeframe is game with this aproach, but i use the 1hr cos it s just easier for me. i ll post also an example of a winning trade just to see the setup.
i took also the first trade,(even though the div was a bit extended) simply because we have strenght in the background, up trend without much weakness, we made the lows, those were taken out with more strenght, div, bull engulfment fake break.
second setup is more textbook(in my book lol) diverg, fake break and closing back inside the range, pinbar and weakness on high vol confirmed the previous day…
a bunch of setups this past week alone, and risking only 1% per trade, u can do the math
hope this helps and feel free to tag me if u have any questions.
cheers
Hey man! Wow, thanks for your elaborate explanation! This looks like a solid strategy, I will definitely test this approach and maybe combine it with the current strategy I’m trading. The basics look alike with the divergent setups. I am also looking to incorporate some volume in the strategy to confirm the strength/weakness.
I am still ‘struggling’, yes. The thing I am focussing on now is picking the best probable setups, I think I can generate around 5-10 ideas per day, but not all of them are the most probable setups, so there is plenty of opportunity, but I’m working on finding the good ones. I improve every day and I’m sure I can regain my losses in the near future. I’m very aware of my trading process.
Anyway, you’ve created a great post, I am definitely looking to incorporate volume in my trading because I think it has great potential. I’ll also test the strategy. Thanks!
hope it helps, any questions just tag. and, u don t need some fancy volume analisys, just determine if u have strenght or weakness in order to have the odds in ur favor. it s very good market aproach, high win rate and very good RR, atleast from my perspective. u can look thro the charts and see how many play out, how many losses, etc, be objective, and draw the line.
cheers and stay green
Volume is like a seasoning, makes everything better. Yes it will help you get to the first stage which is become consistently profitable. Once you can do that, then you can further optimize and refine. Very glad to see another volume promoter in forex, we are the minority but that is what you want to be anyways right?
onlu posted these charts cos of the market aproch i ve suggested few days ago. these are from today, ofc on Gold, u could find ur way in also on 5 or 15m, but even off the 1hr, the risk in % should stay the same no matter how tight or wide is the SL.
cheers
Wow, very detailed explanation. Thanks so much for sharing. Sometimes it just a matter of getting to know what someone else is doing to help give that extra push to do more.
it s not that detailed, there are some nuances to it (like it was on gold sell yesterday), but 1 can discover and adjust them if he or she puts in the time. and u do need basic knowledge about strenght and weakness using volume and spread of the candles. but that s what helps with the high probability setups. anyways, i m around to help if there are questions about. as for the rest u guys can put in the work and see if it fits u.
been watching to short gold all day yesterday, today when it did it i wasn t around to catch the day s high and fake break, but still got in on a ND. posted the chart just to show that this pattern (fake break) is very common and is all over the place. u just have to follow the rules and be patient. in forex if u don have have patience, u pay .
cheers
Do you have any binary confirmation rules in terms of deciding whether you have weakness or strength in the background? Or is it mostly discretionary?
strenght comes on down candles and weakness on up candles, right?
so increases in vol on wide spread down bars with the immediate bull reaction is consider strenght (stopping vol) and also increasing vol on up bars but the result of that vol increase is further up bars that s also consider strenght.
same with weakness, high vol bear react, no follow thro that s weakness, and, or down bars with increased vol follow by lower prices still weakness.
i ll post some charts to ilustrate this
hope this helps, to better understand check out that gold chart i posted with the short setup. weakness the previous day, hen comes back into that level and again vol increases but price gets rejected. that s how i add to the probability. u could try and trade this without vol, i haven t tried that, but i guess reading the background is important as u don t want to sell into strenght or buy into weakness.
hope this helps.
cheers
Very interesting, did you learn this stuff from petefader as well? Sounds very familiar to me, the terminology etc.
yes, and some books on vol like anna couling, wyckoff, weiss etc… i learned by myself thro trial and error, that s 1 of the reasons i m sharing, i know how frustrating it can be. and ofc i tried to simplify as much as i could, clean charts, no fancy indies but still keep a nice RR and high probability ratio. what i was looking for is something that can be traded in all market conditions. and this is tradeable in ranging(which markets do more often then not) and trending conditions. anyways, u be the judge if this works or not. and ofc i culd share trade management, but it also depends on you and ur character, how u feel most comfortable. i d say to try and forward test this, i mean trading it in live markets with a demo to see how u do and get a feel of the aproach. cos in backtesting, if u go far back, u dunno if that s sunday open, late at night for u, NFP during the possibe setup, so can be misleading when compared to live data.
if u have anymore questions, just tag.cheers.
PS> i ve taken 11 trades till now this week alone and i ve lost only 1. it s not to brag or…just telling u, look thro the charts, from monday tll now and u ll see the setups are there, u just gotta get used to them in real time. high and low of crrent day, previous day, weekly monthly highs etc, have them marked on ur charts, it s easier.
chart from just now, current market conditions!!
Nice! I was bullish yesterday on GU, did you make some money? I saw that price rallied up after a short move down.
Last week trading results
i haven t traded yesterday.plus the background was mixed.
