I tend to think of convergences as relative to the range of price movements. Think of a regular chart, with normal zoom - and think of its vertical axis. What is the difference between two values - 25 pips, 50 pips, 100 pips or more? The more the difference is, the more the price movements are, and the larger your convergence “can” be.
In that particular chart the differences I think were 50 pips which makes a 9 pip convergence bad-mediocre. At least this has been my experience.
Do you mean the difference between X and D? There’s 500 pips between those two points.
Or do you mean a rough average move of a bar - like you take a guess at what’s an average bar size in the timeframe and then measure it?
From looking at the chart I think it’s the latter but just wanted to clarify.
Bumping this post for those of you who may have skimmed through it.
Does anybody think this is any good on the Aussie 8 hour? I get convervence around .8565 from two X’s (but concede there are convergences above)
This 30min has D in the same area, but it’s pretty ugly and will probably get invalidated on the re-open.
Modo: On the 30min Aussie chart I find good convergence near 0.8520, 40 pips below your convergence.
However, I think your convergence is more valid because it’s a much higher time frame. It’ll be fun to watch from where it will rebound (if at all)
Yep I saw that one on the Aussie 30 min too though maybe it’s delayed too much by now given it’s a short timeframe? I’m going to keep my eye on it anyway to see how it plays out.
Recent ones I’ve been watching in the short term charts have been retracing 30+ pips despite hitting the levels later than anticipated in the pattern e.g. the recent EUR/USD bearish butterfly on the 30 min charts and the bearish Gartley on the NZD/USD 30 min charts.
The first prediction was correct - the price reacted to the 30min convergence slightly (15 pip down move) but is now going up. If it indeed makes a solid rebound at the 8h convergence (~0.8560) I think we can all be amazed at the power of this method!
Market dead with Australia and China on holidays. Maybe best to stay away until London open.
The price is around your convergence now Modo, let’s see what happens.
Yeah, i’m short at 60 but not liking it. Sentiment to risk has changed over the last couple of days, and it’s hard to see a catalyst to turn this quiet market around.
But I do want to be short aussie, so I guess it cant hurt to send a few troops out here.
I’m short at 65. It went down to 48 at first, but then rose again.
Well, personally I’m never looking for more than 30 pips which I guess can always be made however calm the market is.
A question for you (I’d ask this over email, but it’ll be better if you let everyone know) - Where do you follow Forex news?
I use the Forex Factory economic calendar for economic releases, but don’t have a good real time news source. I generally keep an eye on bloomberg, but try not to pay too much attention as I am trying trade what I see rather than what I think (which is usually wrong lol). To be honest I would probably do better with no news at all.
Argh, I lost 49 pips here or 0.5%.
Cost of business I guess, but it’s never pleasant.
Yep, I see what you are saying about the news. Honestly I’m of the conclusion that the more parameters you allow into making your Forex decisions, the worse you do, unless you are incredibly experienced.
The trade fell through, yeah. Lost 19 pips here. The resistance at the convergence was noteworthy but not enough. Pity - it was a 8hr pattern with very good convergence, which means it should have worked.
Well, we did our best. Maybe my analysis was flawed, but I traded to my plan so I’m not too upset.
I’m out of chips for the day, cya tomorrow.,
Hey everyone,
Im kind of new to Forex, have been studying it for a while. I really love this start you guys have going on. However I know i dont have much of a grasp on it yet. I started one and i wanted to know what you guys thought.
I really want to grasp gartleys and butterflys.
I drew the rest of it out as I saw it. There wasn’t any good convergence however with the closest being around 8 pips at the 1.000 and 1.618 Fib levels. The pattern didn’t work out as you can see.
I’d advise reading this thread from the very start, checking out the link provided on the first page to an FX site that shows these patterns and reading the book that TMB recommends (Trade What You See). Then just have a go at finding patterns and post up here - people will give you feedback.
Ok took another stab at it. As i read this thread more and more i am slowly getting it. I think i can see the patterns easy now. Its just understanding them and reading them correctly that i need to get down.
I dont understand convergance and where to look for it on my fibs. I am guessing between C and D.
your chart is completely wrong, I advise to read from the beginning of the thread.
USD/CHF 60m Bearish Gartley developing. Not a phenomenally good symmetry but there is perfect convergence.
