I just came across TMB’s checklist and thought Id repost it for any newcomers.
Trading Check List (MUST BE COMPLETED BEFORE PLACING AN ORDER OF ANY SORT)
1.THERE IS NO NEED TO ALWAYS BE IN A TRADE.
a.Is the market symmetrical (2-3 patterns prior to your prediction)?
b.Is there multiple convergence?
c.What time frame are you trading?
2.Always set a stop loss point, whether it is visual or physical, a failure point must be set.
a.What is your visual stop?
b.What time frame is your visual stop in?
c.*Is your trade 10+ pips positive?
d.Is there a physical stop? If so where?
3.At the beginning of your trading day, you must do a full top down analysis of the pair you will be trading.
a.Have you done a full top down analysis of the pair?
b.What are the results of the last 10 patterns that developed?
i.Circle (F)ailed || (S)uccessful
1.F S
2.F S
3.F S
4.F S
5.F S
6.F S
7.F S
8.F S
9.F S
10.F S
c.Is the success rate above 70%?
4.Make sure your XABCD points are valid!
a.Is your X an extreme?.
b.Is your BC Leg at least a .382 retracement?.
i.If your BC leg is a .382 retracement or gap, then CD must be: 127% - 261%
5.Your D projection must always be at a convergence point in price.
a.What is the proximity between the convergence point?
i.Please circle the following (If not applicable SWITCH PAIRS):
1.0.0-2 pips = Excellent convergence
2.2.1-5 pips = Good convergence
3.5.1-10 pips = Moderate convergence
b.Is there additional convergence points in the given area?
c.*What candle stick pattern formed after reaching the convergence point?
d.*What candle stick pattern did you use as a “trigger” (late entry/re-entry)
6.Is your limit set at 30 Pips (If this is not true then you have failed)?
1.YES
7.THE ABOVE MUST BE COMPLETED BEFORE ENTERING A TRADE.
*must be completed during a trade.
Yes this is correct, I found this following quote from TMB regarding using the base to wick instead of wick to wick but this im guessing applys to different X extremes aswell:
“In regards to drawing your X from base to wick or wick to wick, it really depends on the market. What you want to do is test each one and see which one price respects the best. I normally do this when things aren’t making sense (no valid patterns are found, like you have). And if non work, then i switch pairs.”
Logically, the “fits” should be from A to B and on, right ?
The temporary resistances / supports while going from X to A shouldn’t count, because at that time the price wasn’t A yet, and so it couldn’t possibly know its fibonacci levels?
EUR/GBP 15 min timeframe. Possible bearish Gartley or Butterfly forming. Don’t think there’s 30 pips to be made here given the tight range involved and it’s late in the day but just posting up to see if it works out or not.
For the most part, but if you can see solid S/R at certain fib levels on XA it backs up any move youd like to do at that level. For example look at the 4hr eurgbp, you could reasonably put your fib levels for x at the first top, or the spike, but notice how much better it fits the chart when you use the spike. Id take a possition on 38.2% of that with no convergance(luckily we have it).
The 15 min pattern I posted earlier hit the D and has gone past it by 4 pips so far.
Fairly shot up for this time of night for EUR/GBP presumably because Osborne announced the breakup of the FSA into 3 separate bodies so GBP is dropping all across the board. People don’t like change I guess.
You have to back way out, or change to a daily to see it, its a 10 pip difference by this method. Im using the # .843 for my entry its 23% of the total fall, aprox 38% of the fibs we were using on the 4 hour from the spike, 10 pips over 100% extension, and at a major resistance zone. looks like a major sell zone with a tight stop to me. On a side note this double 100% on the 1hr move is frustrating me at the moment. it was .5pips away from my entry, and had to happen this time of day…
Well, its looking like a bearish reversal pattern on the 15 and 30 with a few spinning tops. Im in at .8357, so my spread has been covered and uncovered a few times now. this is the part where I walk away from the computer and do something else for a bit. Good luck to everyone who’s in it with me.
Today on the USD/CHF Price has reached and respected a weekly/daily pattern where D lands on the .232 of XA (most extreme X available for the pair) and the 127% of CD (B is 6/4/2010 on the daily). This same B point is also the X for a Major Butterfly where D lands on the 1.618 of XA and the 161% CD convergence. As a result, we have a Major Gartley pattern indicating a major reversal on the pair (Dollar strength) for at least 150+ pips (382 of AD on the bigger pattern). In conclusion, the pair did not only hit a Major Gartley on the daily/weekly but it also formed a butterfly on the CD leg giving us additional confirmation on the major buy and allowing us to enter the market at the wick of price. This technique is part of the reason why it is crucial to analyze all time frames of the market you are trading. (Note about 2/3 weeks ago we predicted that the pair would fall to reach these levels AKA price has exhausted itself found good support and most likely will return and retest those sell areas it dropped from. Anyways, the fact that the pair was able to respect both of these patterns after the London close and stay above both of the conversion points before and at the close of the NY session is extremely significant. You all have been warned, and even though I did not give you the wick… we are at D exactly of the daily right now so long term buys on this pair should definitely be on your mind or at least entering at a retest of the support areas it hit today. Worst case scenario, the pair does not respect the points and signals a sell for 350+ pips (its a win win situation as long as we all stay disciplined). Best of luck and enjoy, I know you guys like to see these wick entries .
However I’d like to point out something, in your 4H chart you are on the Buy prices which should be Ask, and when constructed on Ask prices that 4H convergence isn’t good , around 15 pips.
Just as a brief addition - the SNB interest rate decision is early tomorrow morning. Don’t think it’s expected to change from 0.25% so probably shouldn’t have too much bearing on price action. But something to keep an eye on just in case perhaps.
My entry was on top of the 161% CD when using the ask (.5 pips above). Good of you to note the ask/bid but for future reference lol I always make sure of that before the trade so sorry if I confused you by taking the picture like this. Also please note that even though the convergence is 15 pips apart it is still very good because as you noted it is a 4 hour pattern not the 30/60 min patterns that you are used to trading and have 1-5 pips of great convergence. Always remember that the bigger the time frame the bigger the spread between its convergence point on the lower time frames.
I’m a little wary about GBP in general for today and tomorrow. After the news today it could be a bit unpredictable how people will react to another layer of uncertainty being added in the short term.
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but for future reference lol I always make sure of that before the trade so sorry if I confused you by taking the picture like this. Also please note that even though the convergence is 15 pips apart it is still very good because as you noted it is a 4 hour pattern not the 30/60 min patterns that you are used to trading and have 1-5 pips of great convergence. Always remember that the bigger the time frame the bigger the spread between its convergence point on the lower time frames.