I have no idea why XAU/$ fell like a rock… technically when $ is falling like a rock, and if XAU/$ is also falling, a hypothetical XAU/€ should be falling incredibly, like 100 pips a minute lol
I think it may have been due to China growth diminishing due to less global demand for goods and govt. looking to cool the economy a bit to try and dampen inflation. Australia is heavily dependent on China trade (especially miners) and if China is slowing down that means less demand for manufacturing metals, etc. from Australia.
It’s rising up again now but probably a decent AUD/USD short coming up soon enough.
Upcoming bearish Butterfly on EURJPY 30m. About 109.55
Didn’t work .
EUR/JPY 30 min chart - this complements the 1 hour chart put up by Pete on the previous page. With his X at a higher extreme there’s a similar convergence at around the 110.40 level.
I agree looks like the 30 min and the 60 min are both coming together at about 110.40. The patterns look very strong, but the EUR has been very Bullish in almost all the pairs today, anyone gonna take it?
Have an order already placed on demo account only. Not going to trade any real money on these patterns for the time being while I do some experimenting.
It’ll be interesting to see how it reacts to NFP tomorrow - could provide just the turnaround needed.
Currently it is lingering because it has hit resistance due to two AB=CD patterns. I put some demo money to short at 109.73, let’s see how it goes.
I’m currently waiting for EUR/JPY short. Have been aiming for this since early this morning. I’m waiting for my final indicator to give me a green light to short. I’m anticipating that D will complete at or near 11pm EST. We’ll see how it goes. Also, my pattern indicator detected another bearish butterfly under EUR/USD 1H. Perhaps this might add some weight to the validity of the pattern found under EUR/JPY.
PipBandit, I don’t know if you caught it but there is a bearish gartley under AUD/USD 1H with D completing at or around 0.8470 (61.8 of XA leg). This was also caught by the pattern indicator I have. Perhaps this may complement your 4H bullish gartley.
The EUR/JPY bearish gartley worked - price reversed at 110.41 and dropped down to 109.76 over the following 4 hours. Going to move stop to break-even and see how it progresses. Trust it to work out right on cue when it’s a demo trade heh :rolleyes:
Currently GBPUSD has hit a point where a lot of Fibs combine:
- A Daily Bearish Gartley
- The same Gartley from a more extreme X
- A different AB=CD pattern
However with important USD news about to be announced I won’t be entering a trade that relies on USD rising.
Yeah you wouldn’t know how price is going to react to the NFP numbers. It’ll come down to the private payroll number I guess. If that’s decent could see a dollar rise.
Liquidity is going to be thinning as the US holiday approaches too I guess so anything could happen. Could get very choppy.
Got my 30 and got out. Worked perfectly.
I would stay away from any USD pair today, as NFP is due and the horrible manufacturing and unemployment numbers that came out yesterday.
Nice one. I left it open with stop-loss at breakeven. NFP news spike stopped it out. Demoing to see how things play out between taking 30 pip profits / 50 pip profits / letting things run their course.
I’ll post up interim numbers after I get a results from a set of 20 patterns or so.
USD/CAD 4 Hour - Classic ABCD pattern. Didn’t see it myself until it had already played out but one for the stats maybe.
[QUOTE=PipBandit;203249]100+ pips - nice.
I’m going back to demo trading to experiment with these patterns some more. Want to see what happens if I give trades some more room to breathe with wider stops and let them run for longer. That EUR/GBP was just one example lately where the pattern played out but required sitting through a 50+ pip drawdown for a day or so. The GBP/USD pattern we’d identified needed nearly 100 pips and a couple of days before coming good and would now be +100 pips.
PipBandit,
I find the next XA fib stop preferrable to an arbitrary pip amount as it takes into account the size of the pattern and recent volatility of the pair. If this means you have to take a smaller position then so be it. I then use .236AD as my minimum profit objective.
The gbpaud I posted is a good example of this approach keeping me in the game. Admittedly, I was lucky on this occasion as price almost hit my stop and rallied strongly after my exit, but I give myself some credit for seeing the writing on the wall and not pushing for any more than .236AD. Still, this was not a good trade in terms of risk reward.
As for the daily and weekly patterns like the eurgbp I tend to use these more as indications to start looking for longs/shorts on smaller timeframes, rather than stand alone entries. This is because I feel the margin for error is greater (in terms of pips) on the longer the timeframe, and fine tuning an entry into a daily or weekly pattern using an hourly/5min/1min pattern means I can get on a much bigger position as the stop requirement (next XA fib) is smaller in terms of pips while my position size as of % of capital remains constant. Alternatively you might want to take a very small position with the full stop from the weekly XA and build the positoin if it starts working.
On the eurgbp, once D was hit (.8125) I started looking for short term long patterns, and ended up using this 5 min pattern to get set near the lows.
Not saying this approach is right, just sharing my essentially set and forget strategy ( i don’t move my stops) that might be suitable for those who can’t watch the screen all day or actively manage trades.
MIGHT condiser short timeframe short gu patterns on the basis of these patterns, but wont give them much rope as price seems to be going up more easily than down, and I already have short sterling exposure via long eurgbp.
Just a random remark. I found the .236 and .886 fib levels to be much less powerful than the others.
Thanks for the above Modo - I’d started to put something like that into practice. The stop point is something I’ll give a go.