I would like every one to note, that we reached our goal for the day and will not be trading for any additional profit because of the fact that today is a holiday in Europe and we are expecting the market to be unstable.
I will though be on the forums throughout the day to help out any one in need (answer questions, doubts, confirm, etc…).
sounds intresting i shall buy the recomended book 
best regards
Your up bright and early this morning 
- I think I am going to put together a list of rules on each pattern. Sort of a cheat sheet of sorts. Also we know that trading a “proper” pattern generally yields around a 70%+ win ratio based on the tolerance level you utilize for entry. This alone is good enough, but based on historical (primarily trades you have already taken) analysis can we generate a higher win percentage by replicating times, Fib % of patterns, etc? The only thing mentioned previously was not trading certain times due to fake outs.
Your initial post mentions having tested this approach many times. I don’t want to complicate the system as it is already obviously profitable. Now I understand that taking 30 pips and getting out controls the Greed factor. Maybe this is just important based on your psychology. I am wondering if you have used any other trade management techniques? Example:
Lets suppose a review of historical trades shows already that 70% of the time we make our 30 pips. Out of those winners how many pushed past 30 pips to an amount worth holding on to the trade longer. Lets say for this example 50 pips (or we could even use extension levels of the fibs - for name same call it TP2). So out of the winners (hypothetical) 40% push past to our TP2. So we are looking to gain a little bit more while not adding much risk, maintaining our current gains, keeps the greed factor in control, and implementing a method that is simple and effective.
I am sure there are many methods that meet this criteria, but just one off the top of my head would be something like:
Close 75% of open trade at 30 pip mark;
Set SL to b/e; (or maybe at 15 pips… testing and recording of statistical data for best results)
Close out last 25% at predetermined point; (Could be exactly on TP2, you could initiate a Trailing Stop of X pips, etc.)
Of course this approach would require some time to gather statistical data. I assume that you would find different pairs give different results. I like probabilities as you can tell.
These are just early morning thoughts that I had. I still need to focus on learning the proper patters, and more importantly the ability to recognize them instantly when viewing a chart. An old saying comes to mind: [I]If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it![/I]
nlrsniper sounds good looking forward to it, maybe it makes it more hmmmmm easy for me to understand i have been looking little at this patterns before and im also intrested in EWT but man that is really hard for me to understand hope this can be more easy.
best regards
I have had this for a while and like it because it outlines some of the rules and some extra info on the patterns. First and foremost this is not a good reference if you are just learning the patters (wait… isn’t that me! 
). This is pretty technical, but I like the addition of the T% variable or what they define as tolerance.
Other than the downside of this article being technical so a little difficult to interpret, the author seems to correlate the “butterfly” and the “gartley 222” without distinguishing them. Most likely he though the butterfly pattern was relevant but didn’t want to go off topic too much. Also you will see that the rules they outline would create very very few trades, but they are just outlining the core principle behind the pattern.
All in all its a great reference and read over all.
** I do not completely understand copyright when posting stuff. I found this in public domain so assume that it is legal to post. This is an article from ActivetraderMag.Com August 2003. Just giving credit where credit is due**
Trading the GARTLEY 222.pdf (700 KB)
Good morning everyone,
I saw a gartley on the 30 min eur/usd chart does it look like it is drawn correctly?
Cheers
*Orlando Magic won 
Edit** I forgot to attach lol here we go…
Haha, I knew some one would make a post like this… and yes if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it :)! In the last 2 months the percentage of gartleys/butterfly’s actually reaching target 1 has definitely decreased. The system that I am using now should allow me to have around a 95% win percentage especially since the way I catch the pattern with “convergence” (not used by most). ups the 70% win chance to 80-85% for the most part. The reason because of the loss in percentage I believe is explained in the Trade What You See book by Larry Pesavento.
If I recall correctly, during the spring time each year around March-May. Phenomena occurs in the change of emotions within the traders. In effect leading to more and more failed patterns throughout those months. I think that we might be near the end of this phenomena… especially because of the fact that right at the market open I was able to find 3 D’s in 3 different markets around exactly the same time. Which from testing this method for months has definitely proved.
What I have shown on this thread is just a glimpse of the full effect these patterns have. In normal market conditions, If you saw a major pattern forming on the EURO/USD you could expect similar patterns to form on the 7 major pairs. And for the most part 4-5 of them would complete at least to target 1. In addition just about every pattern you see 8/10 would hit target one, while 95% of the time hitting at least he .382 fib level of XA.
All in all the system I have been “promoting” in just reaching 30 pips for the day and making sure that any additional profit is of 30 pips per trade is EXTREMELY conservative in normal market conditions. As a result, it is probably the only reason why I was able to have such results in the month of April while using this method. In essence not only am I striping my self free from the emotions that conflict 95% of traders which loose daily while trading this market (whom form the patterns I trade), but I am also significantly improving my win/loss ratio no matter what situation the market might be in (notice that my final trade for the month was on a unsymmetrical pattern from the EURO/JPY and I managed to even let the trade “ride” for a 60 pip close).
Here are the results again for the month of April (see quote for attached info):
Oh and in regards to your confusion of copy right law:
[I]according to U.S. Code Title 17 07 states that "the fair use of a copyrighted work for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching (including multiple copies for classroom use), scholarship, or research, is not an infringement of copyright. In determining whether the use made of a work in any particular case is a fair use the factors to be considered shall include:
1. the purpose and character of the use, including whether the use is commercial or nonprofit 2. the nature of the use 3. the amount of the use 4. the effect of the use on the potential market for the copyrighted work."[/I]
And Ogna on regards to:
The pattern is drawn incorrect, but it is there. Your convergence is really at the 100% and the .618 of XA (It looks good too) not the .786%. Always remember that any pattern must have a CD leg of at least 100% before it’s considered valid.
*Tip: Here’s a way to practice, when you wake up the morning and pick up a financial news paper (or see one some time in your life lol). Try and spot the patterns that caused price movement. I do this every day when I see the charts behind the reporters on MSNBC and Bloomberb everyday lol. :rolleyes:
lol great reply of which i don’t have time to properly respond as I have to go to school. Just wanted to say:
“You rock!”
Have a great day.
lol TY, just remember that I learned this method with a group of 10 people working together for months and hours of no sleep lol. So yeah I tried the method you spoke of and many others. Believe me… it’s not just my psychology lol every one in the trading group I was in was effected by this Greed factor. Thinking they new everything once they saw a few patterns give them 100’s of pips heh.
Have a good day in class mate.
thanks for the advice man will do
tmoney does the book you recommend teach this method specifically?
It’s pretty much a must for learning the technique correctly and I pretty much guarantee you will get the money invested on it back within your first successful pattern traded heh. :rolleyes:
Trade What You SEE is an awesome book. No matter how far into technical setups and systems I look, my biggest problem is still myself. Now I’m going to make a list of my habits and what I can do to start implementing positive habits to replace the negative ones (as suggested in chapter 1).
Psychology aside though, just in the first 3 or 4 chapters or so, I’m getting a better understanding of why fibs and other important levels work. I’m always trying to shoot past the basics and get to the complex stuff, when understanding the basics is what lays the groundwork for being able to grasp the more technical setups. It’s nice to be able to draw a gartley, but to be able to pinpoint why a certain convergence level might be more significant than another is priceless.
Thanks again for the recommendation TMB. I remember glancing this book several months ago and passing it up in favor of something less helpful. I should have gone with my instincts!
My book is supposed to arrive early next week.
After reading that attachment…
…the article says that the butterfly is the gartley 222. I just wanted to clarify cause I thought that the D point of any gartley couldn’t exceed X, whereas a butterfly’s D does exceed X…and that the difference between a regular gartley and the gartley 222 had to do with one wing being stretched out way more than the other…just kinda confused 
Here’s a daily chart for the USD/CAD. For those of you who follow the CAD you might find this interesting.
Yea Sweet Pip, that’s why I made mention of the discrepancy in that post. That aside I feel that article is well thought and informative. Seeing as how you already purchased the book… if you would like a copy of the e-book shoot me an e-mail
P.S. I joined shortly after you and have watched your progression come around full circle. Even early times within the 2% club chat room. With lots of enthusiasm I can say you have become my favorite Canadian
Thanks snipe for the offer and the compliment. Sorry to ask…I’m really bad at remembering names especially since I can’t see a face and hopefully you didn’t tell me before…lol…but what name do use on 2% club?..are you still active there?
As for the ebook, I respectfully decline the offer…although getting a jump start on the content would have been great under normal weekend conditions, this weekend I’ll be busy and won’t have time to read it anyways…and it’s hard to sit and read after a few (too many) ****tails (oh oh…apparently that’s a bad word…try again)…c o c ktails!..
The Butterfly pattern was discovered by Bryce Gilmore after doing a deeper analysis of the Gartley 222 pattern with its relationship to the market and Fibonacci. Again, a Butterfly is a failed Garltey which will reach towards the extension levels of XA signaling a major trend reversal. These patterns are for the most part more powerful then a gartley 222 and rare in essence since it must pass the extension of XA. Gartley 222 patterns where discovered in 1935 by Mr. Gartley and I believe that Bryce Gilmore discovered this new phenomenon around the 1980’s. In addition, the reason why I recommend the reading of [I]Trade What You See: How to Profit From Pattern Recognition[/I] by Larry Pesavento, is because of the fact that he fully “dissects” both patterns and explains to you in full detail what they are, why they are, and how to trade them. Also the book goes on to giving you a full scope of Fibonacci and its relationship with price, along with the patterns. Furthermore he shows you how to trade the patterns and gives you the basics to creating a stop/loss/take profit system that can be adjusted to your preferable trading style. All in all, it is always good to know the basics and key elements behind any strategy and form of trading. Especially when it comes from traders who are part of that 1% making “REAL MONEY”. Very rarely have I seen authors such as this one that teach you how to exactly trade it. Giving you confidence to get in at the right time and know when to get out.
PS. The 3 drives patterns and other patterns are also explained in this book.
Oh and Congrats Sweetpip on becoming an FX-Men Honorary Member
Have a great weekend guys!
Thanks TMoney, you do the same!
Thanks!!! Great weekend for you all!
