[B]FAILED[/B]
Looks like a bait n’ switch; a sloppy pennant broke to the downside. Don’t recall, but I think we’re in one of the ‘fake out’ time periods TMB had originally outlined…it’s running down to test previous break of (bearish) M30 trendline…oh blad di, oh bla da
hehe…appears as though the breakout simply completed a bullish gartley setting up in the opposite direction
The symmetry was uber ugly, but it’s always a joy to see the markets behave in such a logical manner, even if it’s not the way you intended Cheers all…
P.S. Haven’t said so, but TMB…a MAJOR thanks for your insights, consideration and good ‘kharma’; with a little bit of diligence, patience and intellect, this is definitely a winning hand…
P.S.S Thanks Swallowtail, good to see I might be on the right path
[B]EUR/USD M30 Bearish Gartley[/B]
There’s a bearish gartley (sorry if I’ve misidentified the correct naming for the pattern; haven’t yet sat down to memorize the subtleties ;)) forming on the 30min charts:
Completion is 707XA w/ 161CD…however, in light of the beating it appears the euro is going to (possibly) take today, there is a real good chance this pattern might fail. Also, there is currently a descending triangle forming (with the top trendline of the triangle being the original bearish downtrend), which may push the euro down to complete a bullish gartley (382XA @ 1.44476, 127CD @ 1.44447) which looks to complete just under a support zone - a possible crack n’ snap?
P.S. The euro’s currently bouncing off a support of some kind (which I identified earlier, but forgot to label, and now can’t refind it :P) of support…thoughts anyone?
Edit: oops…CD completes at 161…haven’t had my coffee yet…
While the answer seems obvious, just wanted to confirm through others experience whether ALL retracements of ‘B’, when exceeding ‘A’ invalidate whatever pattern might be forming. This is to say, do shadows - which represent [I]rejected [/I]price action - consistently invalidate said pattern, or merely [I]reduce [/I]its probability of completion?
My reason for asking relates to the pattern I presented above, which inadvertently formed a hammer that ‘pierced’ point ‘A’, and drew the question, “is there potential for it to still be valid?”
The rules for Gartleys and Butterflies can be referenced in the book Trade What You See by Larry Pesavento, I recommend reading it (read it again if you did).
Note.: there are times that the area of predicted support/resistance still works even though the rules for the pattern have been violated. This usually indicates that a bigger pattern is forming or one in a smaller time frame can be found around the same area. So yes, a pattern that is not considered “valid” may still work but it wont have the 70% probability of reaching a .618 retracement. Events like this usually happen when you find a pattern during London open and news spikes and speculation change the BC points to the point of invalidity (EX. price looks like its forming a nice pattern then it spikes down and C (B retracement) passes A making the pattern invalid… yet price continues towards the original predicted area and reacts from it).
Totally understood. In this case there was/is a larger 1H pattern (bullish gartley) just below the pattern I was referring too, that is additionally confirmed/supported by a prior support ‘range’, and price action is also being pushed down by the larger, original bearish trendline (which is my guess for the hammer, it’s correlating more strongly towards the lower pattern); I realize the original pattern I spotted is strongly questionable in light of these events, and definitely would not be inclined to jump in blindly should price action rally in a seemingly contrarian manner, though it raises an interesting question regarding the interplay of shadows (ie. Nison uses them, others discount them) respective of validation.
Thanks amigo for the feedback - your insights are greatly appreciated/respected.
P.S. Yes, just started the book, though have read Carney’s original Harmonic Trading; I suppose you have to master the rules, before you can bend them Cheers!
Have 3 points of confluence, 2 are nearly perfect; will be keeping an eye on the lower time frames for confirmation of additional patterns. The question that arises is whether any of these setups are countertrend, as the daily appears to be consolidating (wedge).
For anyone interested in saving some time doing some top down analysis, here is some from my 1hr chart of the GU. There also looks like a pattern forming on the Daily that could reverse things around 1.5878. Just a heads up. Depending on what X you use (depending on how far back you want to go in time ) there are multiple convergences. So check them all and watch for patterns forming on the 1H that could work with the Daily chart for some strong and profitable trades. Anyways here it is.
By the way, if you have something forming that will have a D setting up within the next couple hours (3pm-5pm PST // 6pm-8pm EST) let me know. I have nothing other than large time frames that I don’t want to trade (4h+) because I don’t have anything forming on the lower levels. Otherwise I will just wait till the early AM hours to trade the patterns that form between now and then. Guess it’s nap time.
And TMB if you read this and are still doing the Live Trading Room - I’d like to join in!! I sent you a PM already.
This is wht i see on ma 4hr chart…
A possible Gartley pattern establishing on 4hr,
My expectation is… P.A is goin to bounce back from this .618 of XA , n forming a bullish Gartley,
if price breaks below 1.4280 then next Convergence comes at 200% of CD, or 100% of XA, which is 1.4102,
TYPICALLY AB = CD moves are symmetrical in time and price,
Any comments or criticism is welcome…
Correct me if im wrong…
Im already long 2 lots from 1.4291, closed one lot for 30 pips profit, one lot is still open with T.P at +1, currently 34+ pips, but im gonna hold it longer as im expecting the price to reach 1.4355/77…
GUD LUCK ALL n
HAPPY TRADING… ImageShack® - Online Photo and Video Hosting
A little early to tell, including what I would consider poor symmetry, but I’ll be looking to possible CD completion at either the 382XA or 500XA, as both areas generally intersect a descending trendline AND the upper two deviations of the bollinger bands; right now it’s squeezing between the 10/21 ma’s, AND is hitting a prior resistance, so anything can happen. I would expect if it breaks south, we could see a retest of the previous bullish gartley mentioned in last post (which completed for a 30pip profit ;)) for another bounce, or fall through to the next 4H CD target around 707XA-1.42417/127CD-1.42353…thoughts anyone?
TMB - I’m definitely echoing FXtraitor; I would love to join the chat room as well, though I don’t believe I have sufficient priveleges to pm people at this point…
MrPippps - Nice grab on that trade, I didn’t see it till too late and I didn’t like the BC leg enough to trade it. I was watching it on a 1H chart though. I don’t like to trade anything about 1H. I just use them for guidance. I will post my 4H/D chart of the EU for you. I added your trade in there even though it’s a smaller pattern for my daily chart it fits in well enough on the 4H.
As for piporama - just be careful on that trade as the AB leg does not cross the .382 of XA. I would suggest just watching it or demo trade it only IF it even completes. Anyways I will be watching it nonetheless. I generally only trade the GU and the EU so I tend to watch everything anyways. Best of luck!
I tried a larger size of picture to upload… but l guess the code I selected re-sized it down to the normal anyways :34: I just get tired of squinting to see any detail…
Fx traitor… nice chart… think we can exchange our views here… i cut it down to 1hr, even 15 min or 5 min as well… but mainly 1hr n 4hr n daily is best, coz we kno the bigger pic, n we can plan n trade accordingly,
i ve my own trading system n strategy to follow other then gartleys, but i use them as a extra bonus pips and confirmation in my trades, n its doin amazingly gud, im gettin counter confirmations from here, there is a pair EUR/JPY i ve been following tht pair for quite somtime now, n there these patterns form back to back, but i mainly trade two pairs now a days, EU n GU,
my target for a day is 50 PIPs a day, anythin above is a bonus for me, these gartley patterns r amazingly gud n i love to trade them, there is a book called… trade wht u see by larry pesavento, Anyone wanna learn these patterns in detail go through tht boook, as TMB mentioned in his posts, its a gud boook to start with…
Enough with the lecture here…
i hope im not boring u all… lol just a lil info i wanted to share…
hey FX TRAITOR do u ve a daily chart for these patterns??? mind sharing???
Thanks alot for the headsup FXtraitor, definitely appreciated! I’ve noticed throughout this thread there have been (numerous) times where people have failed to define their ‘B’ at a minimum of .382 (which is the absolute base requirement for ALL the patterns detailed in this thread), and thanks again for pointing this out; we all benefit as a result One thing I have required is that the real (candle) body of ‘B’ MUST close above a minimum of .236XA - and I appreciate this is a ‘by the book’ no-no - and have found reasonably consistent results (ie. accurate projections) when this is done. Further, I’ve also used this approach in helping to locate ‘X’; once X has been chosen, and if B is less than .236, then X is too extreme and I need to look for a closer sample. I appreciate this is not according to the rules, and definitely do not recommend anyone modify their system to utilize what I have stated; however, it might be something useful for you to consider, or disprove
Thanks again FX; this thread is completely awesome!
Sorry I didn’t post this sooner, though wasn’t really considering this trade with how close it (started) completing near the ADP news release; we’ll have to wait n’ see…
Cheers all!
Update: Hehe…it bounced nicely; might want to keep an eye out for a second bounce?
Almost formed, is snugging up to bearish trendline; is ‘rare’ pattern, and probably not a good trade setup, but thought I would post for feedback Cheers!
Cheers all…
One thing I have required is that the real (candle) body of ‘B’ MUST close above a minimum of .236XA - and I appreciate this is a ‘by the book’ no-no 
Cheers!