30 Pips A day Keeps the your money at bay

[afowals]

Hello TMB,

Are u admitting into your Live trading room?

Wanna get firm grips of the pattern and also be able to impart on others!

Thanks TMB!
You shape my trading!

[TMoneyBags]

TMB,

I greatly appreciate the discipline and attitude you have developed with this thread. I have read it and referenced back to it several times in my “young” career as a forex trader. One question I didnt find answered, however, was regarding margin and risk associated with your trades.

Your rule 6 states: “NEVER use excessive margin, the margin that is used during your trades can never exceed 10% of your account during the point of entry.”

however, your very first thread shows your statement with one trade, E/J, with 200k as amount with a calculated leverage of 50:1. This would mean your trade, at the time, would require roughly 6k in margin. A few posts later you mentioned you started with roughly 5k in the account. Did you decide at beginning you needed to take more risk to build up the acct? At what point did you decide to use only 10% of your acct as margin risk/trade?

Judging by your recent screenshots showing 20+ lots open at any given time, trading with only 10% of acct size risked per trade I would say your doing very well with an acct well into the 7 figures! Thanks again for your advice and comments throughout this thread. If someone else has a better understanding of this than I do please feel free to respond as it seems TMB is quite busy.

      Hello JMK and thank you for the response, I would like you to note that the rule sets I have written where before regulations in the United States where changed towards heading and margin distribution amongst the brokers. This means that 10% of the margin during 2009 for a US account between 10k-300k now reads as 20-35% of the margin on the account. In addition, the lot size used is based on 100 lots for accounts between 5k-10k, 200 lots for 10-20k, 300 lots for 20-30k and so on... Today I have lowered my lot usage to 100 standard lots for every 10k because because of the new changes in margin %... Please note that if your account is based outside the US such as FXCM London then your margin % will still apply to the 10-5% rule. As for my account size, I am not able to disclose such information. :57:

[Braindamage]

Sup, first, I began to study harmonic patters does one month, this morning was reading trade what you see and I wanted to put into pratice.So missing three chapters to finish the book, after that I begin to read 500 pages of the thread here.

In this graph of Gartley I used the method of TMB Identify Gartley 222 and Butterfly Patterns using Fibonacci 1 of 2. - YouTube, my biggest question here is where to put the X.

I know that here we have great trader like TMB that can help me. Thank you all and sorry for my terrible English.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dan89]

Hello JMK and thank you for the response, I would like you to note that the rule sets I have written where before regulations in the United States where changed towards heading and margin distribution amongst the brokers. This means that 10% of the margin during 2009 for a US account between 10k-300k now reads as 20-35% of the margin on the account. In addition, the lot size used is based on 100 lots for accounts between 5k-10k, 200 lots for 10-20k, 300 lots for 20-30k and so on… Today I have lowered my lot usage to 100 standard lots for every 10k because because of the new changes in margin %… Please note that if your account is based outside the US such as FXCM London then your margin % will still apply to the 10-5% rule. As for my account size, I am not able to disclose such information. :57:

Hi TMB, Anychance you could answer the questions i have asked a few pages back ?

Cheers
Dan

[TMoneyBags]

TMB could you clarify exactly how to get the B point and the different factors you look at when choosing a b swing. This would help tremendously because without getting the correct B point the rest of the pattern can become invalid.

Cheers
Dan

Dan… I have repeatedly throughout the thread answered this question and by now you should know how to search for such answers throughout the thread by using the Advanced search tool that’s linked to this thread. Never the less I will respond with a quote so you can see that the information your requesting is already here… and because you’ve shown much dedication to this thread

B can be a maximum of 100% of XA (this is rare but possible). Their is no rule for the minimum other than that it should always be in between XA. But I much rather you trade a pattern where B at least retraces off the .236 or .382 for symmetry.

Thank you for the reply TMoney. I saw what I did wrong. Now I have a couple questions concerning few things.

1. Is there a difference if B is found on .382 or .500 of XA?
2. What if we’re looking for B and it rests between .382 and .500?
3. Does C always have to be between X and A in all 4 patterns?
4. Take a look at the following chart. You’ve said that if a trade close beyond the entry point for 30 min on a 30-60 min trade or 5 min for 5-15 min, you would exit. Would you have exited this trade?
   …

1. I haven’t seen a difference really other then a trade that has at least a .382 B retracement from XA has more symmetry then one that does not. Also, the most important retracement involving B is that of C which is the measurement of the AB leg.

2. It is still valid

3. Yes

4. Yes and No, Yes as a daily pattern, No as a 30 min pattern. *See bellow.

First of all, what you have shown has a reason and divergence to go with it. If you where to draw your fibs from the base price of the extreme on the daily, then you would have noticed great divergence and a perfect bounce. Which is shown bellow where you can see perfect divergence with 127% of CD and the .500 of XA.

The problem wit the pattern above is that it typically fails. Yes there is just about always a nice bounce as you see above. But it is not the true pattern. This is because of the fact that Price always likes to test the extreme, even if it does not linger at that point. This is why we draw our X from wick to wick the majority of the time as shown bellow. Here we have convergence at 200% of CD and the .618 of XA. Also, there is perfect divergence at 261% of CD and the .786 of XA.

In regards to drawing your X from base to wick or wick to wick, it really depends on the market. What you want to do is test each one and see which one price respects the best. I normally do this when things aren’t making sense (no valid patterns are found, like you have). And if non work, then i switch pairs.

-Edit-

Ok, I need to rest for London :). I’ll be back around 2am est. Cya and happy trading.

[TMoneyBags]

@Dan89

Well ive been looking for the patterns that would of given a buy singal on those trades he took but i cant find them. Either im missing something or TMB is using a slightly different technique/patterns

Dan

As you all know during 2010-2011 I have been working on improving my trading system… I thought to my self, if we can predict the peeks of the market and avoid fake outs… if we can predict market movements on the short term and long term with 80-95% accuracy… if we can prove substantial gains using a counter trend trading technique… then can’t we flow with the markets and do all this as well? The answer is with Discipline and dedication you definitely can… and the result is the progress that you’ve seen and… the Hydra… —Coming Soon—

[jmk8302]

TMB,

Thank you very much for the response. I have to say, I am still a little confused. How can you manage to trade 100 lots for every 10k?! Even at 100:1 leverage you would require well over 10k just in margin alone to buy 100 lots right?! Again, this level far exceeds the 10% guidelines. I may be missing something simple here that would explain it, but for now im still confused and im sure some other readers are as well. The highest leverage ive seen is 500:1 (which obviously is extremely risky and I doubt your using) and even with that 100 lots will cost you at least 10k, so I dont see how your justifying using 100 lots for every 10k step in acct size? Like always, your responses are greatly appreciated!

[TMoneyBags]

TMB,

Thank you very much for the response. I have to say, I am still a little confused. How can you manage to trade 100 lots for every 10k?! Even at 100:1 leverage you would require well over 10k just in margin alone to buy 100 lots right?! Again, this level far exceeds the 10% guidelines. I may be missing something simple here that would explain it, but for now im still confused and im sure some other readers are as well. The highest leverage ive seen is 500:1 (which obviously is extremely risky and I doubt your using) and even with that 100 lots will cost you at least 10k, so I dont see how your justifying using 100 lots for every 10k step in acct size? Like always, your responses are greatly appreciated!

JMK… as I stated… whatever is 20-35% of account margin in the US and 10-7% in Europe is the max number of lots I use for “scalping 30 pips” a trade from the market. The issue with leverage with the amount of leverage we use for our trades has been answered various times throughout this thread and I suggest that if you have not gone through and read the entire thread to please do so if you are truly interested in learning more about this technique. Please note that trading techniques must be adapted towards ones comfort level to achieve profitability. For instance many students here have shown me that they work better using the system on the 4h, 8h, and daily time frames then on the 30min to hourly as I do. In addition, if you have read the book “Trade What You See… by Larry Pesavento” you can note that he shows you stop loss, take profit techniques that he him self says that one should modify to their own trading style. In short if you are not comfortable using such leverage, simply adjust it to that which meets your comfort zone.

[afowals]

Hi TMB!

You are yet to reply to my question!

Probably you felt this guy is not that serious, he’s not been posting and all that…

I swear to you that I have READ every of this thread’s page, read “The Harmonic Trader” by Scott M. Carney, yet to finish Trade what you see by Larry Pesavento and Leslie Jouflas, your pdf and even your two videos before analysing the market every time!

I believe very much in the fact that Knowledge (no matter how small) should preceed action! That’s why I don’t post often. And for about a year or there about I have not been trading for some personal reasons and just got back two months back!

Anyway, my questions remains
: If you are still allowing for admittance into your live trading room?

Hope will get reply! Thanks for making me aware of this pattern in the way I know it and I so much believe in it!

[ruanjian]

Hi TMB
This is my first post, have been reading the thread and the books you recommended. Is this a a valid pattern (USD/CAD M15)? Sorry if the image is too small, I have been trying to make it clear and fit into the post. Thanks.

[ruanjian]

Here is another one, is this a good pattern? (NZD USD M30)

[Abdulhadi]

TMoneyBags,

I have been looking at your thread the last few days, and man, you rock.
I have been trading currencies for almost 5 years , and guess what ?? I always fail when it comes to making profit :54:
So, I have been trying to learn and developing my techniques in order to become a successful trader as your self.

I have been trying to apply Gartely and ButterFly pattern, and I would appreciate it if you have a look at this chart and
comment on it.

Many thanx in advance .

[Sanjoz]

@ruanjian

Here is another one, is this a good pattern? (NZD USD M30)

Hi Ruanjian,

it would be interesting to hear how you went with that trade if you took it? I see a couple of problems with the setup, it would be intersting to hear others comment on it.

The problems I see are:

1. symmetry is quite poor between ab and cd.
2. there is a long bar between CD, that is not a show stopper in itself, but combined with the non symmettry and I would suspect this one will continue going downwards and not bounce off point D.

these are classic ‘warning signals’ pointed out in ‘trade what you see’. So, one approach here, (I THINK) would be to take the trade with a tight stop loss and if it continues going down, get out and trade the down movement. (personally, I wouldn’t take it, I think you can find better examples of a gartley).

cheers

[Braindamage]

hey, was looking at the NZD / USD 30m tf and a double bottom was formed on 127.0 fib and confirmed a Gartley, left me confused now, I had another thought.

[Stupip]

Does anyone see a set up for D @.9916?? (AUD/USD-DAILY)

[[email protected], [email protected], [email protected] (.382XA), [email protected] (.618BA)]

[ruanjian]

@Sanjoz

Hi Ruanjian,

it would be interesting to hear how you went with that trade if you took it? I see a couple of problems with the setup, it would be intersting to hear others comment on it.

The problems I see are:

1. symmetry is quite poor between ab and cd.
2. there is a long bar between CD, that is not a show stopper in itself, but combined with the non symmettry and I would suspect this one will continue going downwards and not bounce off point D.

these are classic ‘warning signals’ pointed out in ‘trade what you see’. So, one approach here, (I THINK) would be to take the trade with a tight stop loss and if it continues going down, get out and trade the down movement. (personally, I wouldn’t take it, I think you can find better examples of a gartley).

cheers

Hi Sanjoz
Thanks for your reply, I did not trade that one, since I am not confidence enough about my own pattern recognition yet. Just want to post the chart and get other people’s opinion/guideline. below is how it played out, can I say the D formed at 1.272 cd or 0.618 xa?

[Braindamage]

@ruanjian

Hi Sanjoz
Thanks for your reply, I did not trade that one, since I am not confidence enough about my own pattern recognition yet. Just want to post the chart and get other people’s opinion/guideline. below is how it played out, can I say the D formed at 1.272 cd or 0.618 xa?

Convergence with 1.272 CD and the .618 of XA ?

[ruanjian]

what do you think about this one? NZD USD M15
Convergence with .786 of XA and 2.0CD

[crazysac99]

@ruanjian

what do you think about this one? NZD USD M15
Convergence with .786 of XA and 2.0CD

looking at it right now and it sems to be respecting that D. Did you get a chance to look at the hour or daily to see if anything was going on??

[crazysac99]

possible D @ .8600. please note that my X is drawn from candle to wick, not the typical wick to wick. I was having a hard time finding convergence on this pair / time frame, so i drew from candle to wick. Not exactly sure of the specifics of when to, but def a possible setup on a bigger timeframe.