30 Pips A day Keeps the your money at bay

Sweet_Pip · November 12, 2011, 1:34pm

Hi piporama,
Just wanted to comment that I believe C should actually be the lower low to the left instead.

sharebazar · November 12, 2011, 4:20pm

Hi Sweet pip According to rule C is lower low at left.

panmic · November 12, 2011, 4:21pm

@piporama, thanks for noting, the third fib was accidentally deleted when i was dusting the chart, the fib lines could make the charts look clumsy sometimes, I almost wanted to take all of them off, for the purpose of your notice and in line with the good spirit of TMB’s teachings I am going to edit that image ASAP and replace it with one showing the fib convergence…

Sweet_Pip · November 12, 2011, 4:27pm

Which is the lower low I circled in yellow…

piporama · November 12, 2011, 4:42pm

Wow, this thread has come back to life, excellent! With respect to C (actually my-bad folks, ABCD really shouldn’t even be there to begin with, as I believe there aren’t any patterns to speak of). Regardless, if you refer to my method for selecting candles (my original post), you would find the bearish candle at C is the ‘orthodox’ low at that point, for that timeframe…thanks for keeping me on my toes

panmic · November 12, 2011, 4:50pm

just to add, piporama, i am actually trading this method with some additional technique i found in the book written by Scott M Carney, “THE HARMONIC TRADER”, he actually made this levels more specific and he utilizes three fib convergences for his potential reversal zone’s (PRZ) i have been very comfortable trading them for the past three weeks as it is easier for me to stay disciplined, for me trading this way removes guessing from this technique though, the trade either works at this level or it does not, then i wait for another set-up, I still use TMB,s exit strategy of candle close outside PRZ… and so far my experience has been pleasant, I am live trading this on a mini.

piporama · November 12, 2011, 5:06pm

That’s great panmic! In the end whatever makes you successful is definitely the way to proceed. I only profer the potential for refining/tightening/confirming your convergences. Carney’s book is a classic, and it’s great that you are able to take the best of this thread and outside sources to create something unique for yourself; when you’re bored, take a closer look at my suggestion for selecting candles…it’s not a system, just a perspective.

Cheers and happy trading

panmic · November 12, 2011, 6:20pm

Thanks! of course i am taking a look at it (your suggestion), in this game you can never know too much ;), will give it enough screen time to see if it qualifies to go into my trading toolbox. For pesavento book, i read that too. another reason i went this way, is that i found out while studying some of TMB’s earlier post’s, some of the patterns he posted also conform to what carney projected in his books, (enough to get me into enough trades) but as you can see with a bit different approach. The one i posted earlier on would have qualified to be a ‘BAT’.

thanks and happy trading also…

TMoneyBags · November 13, 2011, 3:36pm

buy eur aus i will 2morrow longterm… find a good entry

Stupip · November 13, 2011, 8:39pm

I can’t see why you would buy…unless i’m looking at the monthly timeframe…and then my only reasoning would be that it’s been consolidating…and ready to retrace and hit @1.4981??

panmic · November 14, 2011, 6:51am

piporama:

Hi panmic! Unless the method for drawing the second fib has changed (as per how TMB taught this thread) then I believe you may have done so wrong(*). It would seem, and unless I am incorrect based on your screengrab, you did not draw the 2nd fib using A-B as your ‘base’ (A as 0, B as 100%), then transposing that fib so that now C becomes the ‘0’ baseline.

(* with respect to this thread it is wrong, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce/hesitation, even if only a small one, occur around the point you have labeled as D. Regardless, you are learning how to identify these patterns, so stick with the rules – and read the books suggested in this thread).

With respect to how you chose your candles when defining the extremes, I would like to offer what I consider a (almost) simple, surefire method for electing which candle to use – when faced with a scenario where there isn’t a clear cut choice.

I’m not going to go into the specifics of ‘why’ I believe the following works; I stumbled across it during countless hours of staring at the screen, and can only say this would appear to be what the majority of traders/algos reference.

With regard to your forecast, after adjusting the sizing/position of fib #2, I personally don’t see any patterns as relating to what’s discussed in this thread. However, there was some nice tradable (sp?) confluence which did occur! (as denoted by the magenta circles below)

The cool part is that while the pattern you were hoping for isn’t there, there might be a nifty Elliot Wave pattern/progression forming instead; which, though too early to tell, has a probability of completion @ X. For your own benefit, do not attempt to learn this stuff until you have managed a really good grasp of the essential harmonic patterns and fibs, I’ve only posted this to showcase other options, and to hopefully give a little back to the community. Once you’ve grasped this, you’ll find the rest to be wonderfully interrelated, like the seeds of a sunflower

Fantastic news TMB! Maybe Schwager will write another Wizards book in the near future One never grows tired of success stories amigo…well done indeed.

P.S. As mentioned some time back, if you are still conducting your ‘trading room’, I would love the opportunity to sit in; you can never learn enough it seems…Cheers!

@piporama,
if i had drawn this your way i would had gotten into that one, i missed it by six pips, thanks for your suggestion once again.

Pr1NZ · November 14, 2011, 8:31am

piporama:

Hi panmic! Unless the method for drawing the second fib has changed (as per how TMB taught this thread) then I believe you may have done so wrong(*). It would seem, and unless I am incorrect based on your screengrab, you did not draw the 2nd fib using A-B as your ‘base’ (A as 0, B as 100%), then transposing that fib so that now C becomes the ‘0’ baseline.

(* with respect to this thread it is wrong, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce/hesitation, even if only a small one, occur around the point you have labeled as D. Regardless, you are learning how to identify these patterns, so stick with the rules – and read the books suggested in this thread).

With respect to how you chose your candles when defining the extremes, I would like to offer what I consider a (almost) simple, surefire method for electing which candle to use – when faced with a scenario where there isn’t a clear cut choice.

I’m not going to go into the specifics of ‘why’ I believe the following works; I stumbled across it during countless hours of staring at the screen, and can only say this would appear to be what the majority of traders/algos reference.

With regard to your forecast, after adjusting the sizing/position of fib #2, I personally don’t see any patterns as relating to what’s discussed in this thread. However, there was some nice tradable (sp?) confluence which did occur! (as denoted by the magenta circles below)

The cool part is that while the pattern you were hoping for isn’t there, there might be a nifty Elliot Wave pattern/progression forming instead; which, though too early to tell, has a probability of completion @ X. For your own benefit, do not attempt to learn this stuff until you have managed a really good grasp of the essential harmonic patterns and fibs, I’ve only posted this to showcase other options, and to hopefully give a little back to the community. Once you’ve grasped this, you’ll find the rest to be wonderfully interrelated, like the seeds of a sunflower

@piporama, very nice sharing on how to actually draw fibs correctly! i learnt something new

Pr1NZ · November 14, 2011, 8:34am

i can’t see either…anyone have charts to share? :53:

piporama · November 14, 2011, 8:36am

@Pr1NZ You’re welcome, glad I was able to offer something valuable Though keep in mind it’s not necessarily the ‘right’ way, but rather ‘my’ way; the only way to be certain is to draw them a few million times Cheers!

Pr1NZ · November 14, 2011, 10:29am

Just stumble upon it :53: but i am still in the learning stage though (on demo :54:)

Pr1NZ · November 14, 2011, 10:37am

hmm but my gut feeling is telling me my ‘C’ is incorrect…read it elsewhere on how to place my fibs where the wick looks like in my chart but i couldn’t recall the details.

Pr1NZ · November 15, 2011, 4:19am

the USD/CHF Gartley yesterday failed and turned into a Butterfly, but I couldn’t find any convergence point…

any advice please?

Stupip · November 15, 2011, 5:42pm

Hi Pr1NZ,

If you move “X” to the high on 10/06/2011 in the morning…you will find better convergence (.786XA=1.000CD)…see my charts below…

(I got stopped out in the 30 min chart, where I circled it blue…if not, I would have made over 100 pips)

30 Min:

1 Hour:

4 Hour:

If you find no convergence:

The pattern is invalid, so don’t trade, or
You drew it wrong, so try looking to draw from different high/low points, or search different time frames.

Invalids:

If B passes X = invalid, search for better/valid points or wait for points to come later during the day.
If C passes A = invalid, search for better/valid points or wait for points to come later during the day.
If AB > CD = invalid, CD leg should be equal to or longer than the AB leg (usually almost always)
CD has no convergence with XA = invalid

Pr1NZ · November 15, 2011, 8:48pm

thanks StuPip! :33:

Braindamage · November 16, 2011, 8:37am

Convergence with 100.0% CD and the .382 of XA, wanted to know what you think about this chart, the minimum for XA converge is .50, right?

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