Sorry, I have been too busy to post anything. There are major patterns coming up, on AUDJPY and GBPJPY, the GBPJPY is a 600 pip swing, if things start looking better for the AUD, I might expect it to be a fakeout and continue up to test the high of Last April which is near the next convergent point.
There was a failed pattern on the NZDUSD today, but if you study the pattern, a lot can be learned from it. The next convergence point is 14 pips, on and 1HR pattern, but I would venture to say the .8055 is a great entry point for many reasons. Note that I would expect that to occur if and around when the EUR tests the 1.30 level, and if for some reason the EUR closes past it in the next 24 hrs, I would want to get out of NZD position
EJ 15m gartley, 100%CD and 0.618 has reached and I prefered this pattern and have ordered at 109.243. It was with the main trend. If this point failed, 127.2%CD and 0.786XA and 161.8% and 0.886 also have good convergence.
The trade finished with a marginal profit of 1 pip. The lessons to learn: If the price needs to cross a pivot line or other strong support level, better to take profits near that place, specially if it is confluent with a fibo level of the pattern.
If I would have take the profits when the price touched the 38.2CD, the profit could have been about 16 pips instead of 1 pip.
I was studing the work of Scott Carney, and read about one of the recent discoveries, the pattern “5-0”.
I found it is useful, and it seems to have good results. It’s work is simple, after a extreme move “0”, you will find a small retracement, that is an small impulse move X to A. Then, a bigger impulse move tries to continue the move from “0” to X to create the B point, a little more far than the X, then, a retracement, big, big retracement to C point, that breaks the A point. This indeed creates a lower low on X, lower high on A, next lower low on B, but fails to create a lower high, instead of this, it creates a higher high, signaling a change of the trend. After that, the D point falls on 50BCD retracement and the PRZ is created between the 50BCD and 100AB=CD(price).
It might be a good time to short the GBP/JPY. Things are looking pretty strong for this pair, but that is the nature of these patterns is to go against the general consensus. 600 Pip Swing, I already took some 30 pips from it and have re-entered.
I’m going to check this pattern. If you place the D point at the previous swing, the stats shows a perfect retracement there to bad I didn’t see that pattern before hehehehe.
You Could Probably enter with a small lot. I have my target set At 180 Pips and entered at 132.29 with 20 pip S/L. Even at the 132.00, I would say its still a good opportunity.
A good time to enter might be when a double top forms! (@131.8)
I have a question for you. To say that some level is confluencing / converging, like a trend line, and a fibo level or some other thing, you need they fall in a range, let say, +/-X pips distance between both of them (or if there are more than 2, then all the 3, or for…)
In 30M timeframe, how many pips do you consider to admit that they are confluencing? and on 1H? 4H? 1day?
Thanks
By the way, I’m using 1/2 of the 20 periods ATR, but want to know how you define this
Can you post a better picture? What TF is that on, and what is the convergence point.
Medisoft,
First off, I do not believe there is a word confluencing. Converging is the term and it has mathematical meaning.
If you look at TMB’s guide, he says that 0-2 pips is excellent, 2-5 is good, 5-10 is moderate, for 1 hr patters. He tried to take trades only that were excellent or Good. He also said that for differant time frames, they can act as an scalar. For 4 HRS, 0-8 would be considered excellent. For smaller time periods, 15 mins, 0-.5 would be excellent. Get the idea?
Upcoming patterns on audusd, and audjpy. Keep an eye out, they may be triggering at same time and could reduce your risk against the yen as its had a downhill slide lately.
The first audusd convergence might not be the true D, but could definately be traded for some pips!
There you can read about the difference between confluence and convergence.
Basically, you can have two contrary lines that converge to the same point, crosses the point and then continue their’s path to a very different place, while if you have two different lines that are in confluence, the move to the same place, maybe at different speeds or slopes, but to the same place.
By the way, the patterns you are looking on AUD pairs are bearish butterflies?
I found the best point on 127.2XAD, if they are the patterns you are looking for (on 30m)
Did not know that! Bootless definition of confluence and did not find anything lol
30 min or 1 hr, points should not vary. I am not at my computer but believe the first is around 1.0640 and the other is around 1.0670. Of course latter is almost always better. There are a couple of usable x points that can be used and together strengthen entry points by having more major fibs.
Like I said I would trade both, the first one with conservative target expecting takeout and not reversal.
The audjpy is really obvious, price has just been itching up there.
Do you ever sleep? Or do anything other than look at charts?
Hahaha, yes, I sleep, and also work on IT company and have my wife.
But tomorrow we have a holiday, and I have some caffeine in my blood hehehe
And you know, it’s very exiting for me to learn this. I’m on CST, it is 2:53 AM for me right now. I think there are some people here that are on Asian time, so I sometimes read the forum at this hour to see if I can learn from the more experienced people, just like you
I was stopped Out of audjpy at be. Too bad because just after that, the price retraced to more than 100 percent cd.
This was because a logic problem on my trailing stop method, that is nos fixed. I found that trailing with candlesticks and last swing methods is pretty good.
I’m looking to enter for this pattern also. But this is my pattern, the orange line is my entry price, if, and only if, the price make a reversal candlestick on that area.
I’m also looking for a trade on the Kiwi, the yen and the Loonie
The loonie is just defining the C point, so it is very difficult to say that it will be a trade, but it seems plausible.
to bad I didn’t see that pattern before hehehehe.
