By the way, I’m not an expert, but i see you placed your entry point at a bad D. Because you placed it on 88.6AB=CD(price)
Gartley requires a 100AB=CD(price) and 78.6XAD and your point was 88.6AB=CD(price) and 61.8XAD.
Please read the thread, In the first posts is the book that TMB recommended, pretty good and easy to read book. There you can see how the confluences / convergences work.
The trade on AUDUSD is working right now. The NZDUSD failed to entry because I didn't detect the candle pattern on time, but it made the expected move pretty fast and good, more than 20 pips in only 5 minutes.
Trade finished. 8 pip win plus 1.5 rebate. Good enough for me.
The lessons learned:
The "pivot candlestick" needed a fix, that was done on the harmonic charter. The price tends to reverse a little or a lot on the 23.6 retracement. Sometimes the price extends after that retracement. I'm going to continue monitoring the pair for an hour to see if it breaks above the 23.6 level, and to extract more learning from this trade.
You Got lucky on that NZD trade. Nice Job though. When C-D is less bars than A-B and they are big and long, you can almost gurantee that the D is going to be a fakeout, which it was. 20 pips was nice score from it.
I dont have any requirements. If convergence is strong, I can still trade it for a few pips… but that is risky. You simply assume that the True D is at a further distance. Dont expect to get 30% of AD, when it is likely a failure point.
CD could be shorter in time it all depends. Ideally it would be 100%, in the trade what you see book it goes into more detail. When you combine shorter time with long bars to that point, Watch Out!. When price is extension of CD, more often that not you should see time >100% of AB, or a further extension is likely.
Fyi, this happens all the time with NZD, check patterns over the last couple of weeks and you will see this concept.
I was wondering about what are your spreads. I Like some pairs Like euraud and nzdjpy but they have a lot of spread in my broker, about 14 pips. The majors have only 3 pips.
Its hard to say, it depends on the time of the day. NZDJPY is about 3 for me, average 2 for majors, up to 5 at bad times during the day. If your spreads are high, you should greatly consider the odds of winning a trade and the odds of losing and weigh out the possibilities, it can really make a good setup bad.
I trade with Oanda, but have an thinkorswim account (td ameritrade) just to use that software. The thinkorswim platform is freaking awesome! but their prices are a little steep. The only legit broker your going to use in US with small $ is Oanda, they are quite reasonable and consistent. Until you get an account over 40k, they are probably your best option. Their withdrawal fees are expensive, but overall you do a lot better on spreads!
A couple other notes, fees are usually the best when its the session that the pair gets the most action in, which also should be when D’s are forming. Sometimes mine get as low as .9.
The other day when I noted the convergence variance to be considered good pattern was dependent on the time frame, you also need to realize that the size of AD swing could be a reason to call convergence good or bad. Ex. 2 pips on 120 pip swing, excellent. 10 Pips on 600 pip swing could be considered excellent.
Hello Everyone, as promised by next week we will be finished with our Harmonic Trading and Signals website requested by the community :). For more details and for a preview of whats to come, simply message me in the live trading room or through babypips!!! Lets get ready to ride some waves
I found that the most important values are XAB and XAD (I mean, the B and the D)
They need to fall pretty near of a fibo level based on XA leg. The C point is less important, if it falls between 38.2 and 88.6AB it is good.
But please check for convergences, if a target falls in a point where there is a XAD and BCD and xAB=CD convergence, that could be a good place to put your entry. But check that also the duration of AB and CD, CD should be equal or larger in duration.
Im saying that convergence could also be graded by the overall swing. When I say 10 pips on 600 pip swing, I mean 10 between the fib lines (convergence) on a swing from AD of 600 pips. I think the tf is a better way of grading it, but use discretion.
Ex when there is 8 pips convergence on 4 hr pattern, but the AD is only 120 pips, then I would not consider that to be excellent even though 4x (0-2 pips) is called excellent on 1 hr pattern.
FYI, a good example of this, was the second attempt at GBPJPY, I entered late as I was waiting until news came out (30 pip convergence, not to solid, so I wanted fundamentals to agree.) I sacrifice some potential pips profit by entering late, but needless to say, I did quite well.
Hi guys. Finally finished reading the book and first 200 pages of this thread. I have been trading here and there using this method and the result has been good so far. Here’s a possible up coming pattern on AUD/JPY 4hrs.
Thanks for this thread, it is very useful and illustrative. After learning something of harmonic patterns I found that it is indeed possible to be a good trading without any type of guessing