I’m treating GBPCHF as a breakout. 0.01 lots because i read about trading the opposite of a pattern (a breakout) but not usre how it’ll go.
doesnt all this technical stuff go out the window when important news affects the market?
Interesting that you ask. Harmonic numbers basically are derived from the overall mood, so that we begin to recognize patterns. There are many arguements that it’s not the news that affect the market, but the market is what affects the news. (…let this sink in…) check out prechter’s book on fibonacci levels in the market and socionomics and you’ll see a whole new side of the arguement.
Plus if it all got thrown out the window, why is it so widely followed and why are people able to obtain a profit?
A breakout in the opposite direction of the pattern would mean a breakout to the bottom of the channel which is in essence the same directional bias as the pattern projects. You do mean a breakout outside the bottom correct?
Well said. News events generally move the market temporarily, whereas large global macroeconomic events will move the market for a longer period of time. In our case, the news has deteriorated the bias of our pattern such as the case with the most recent GBP/CHF move. Contrarily, with proper money management, I gathered +30 pips before the market shifted in th opposite direction. However, when the news does not affect currencies on a large scale, the gartley patterns are highly reputable. For example, i am still in the GBP/CAD trade that is +137. I took 1/2 profit after +30, and am leaving the rest to run.
The news considers what happened now, whereas technicals consider what has already happened to help steer the market.
This speaks for itself…
+140
It appears that price is slowing down as it approaches the 61.8 expansion. I will be looking to go short if price tests and rejects this level.
Socionomics goes even beyond that. Socionomics believes that the high mood is what causes good events and a low mood is what causes bad events even in the L-R. hahah but I guess that is just one theory.
Anyhow gonna post my expectation for GBPCAD
According to the fibonacci time zones since it hasn’t reached at least 1.382 then it can’t be the end of the pattern (if it’s a legit pattern of course.
I expect it to continue down to the 1.5500 level at least.
Cheers
that is because we have different ‘X’ positions. Mine had started mid-uptrend.
By the way, here is a combination between an evolving inverse ‘head and shoulders’ and a 222 that has a D located at 78.222 major resistance, 127.2 expansion and 78.6 XA retrace.
(USD/JPY Daily)
Here are 2 on the H2 AUD/USD
The first one is the one with yellow lines. You can see the convergence at 1.05921 (XA-1.13 CD-1.00)
The green lines you are seeing in this image is the second pattern. It is a Gartley. D should be at 1.00663 (XA-.786 CD-1.00)
Give me your thoughts on both patterns.
Hey Benjabuze!!! glad you’re here. LOoking at your GBPJPY projection, and If you’ve seen my previous posts I am using time also as a harmonic indicator now with my patterns. In this case it is a POSSIBLE projection but the D point would not be able to complete until quite a bit later. Remember that when you trade patterns, symmetry is key.
Look: The one below is what I would prefer although your projection is possible. I’ve still got a lot to learn so we’ll see which way this one goes. I think it’s hard to establish a pattern only from the XAB legs we need a completed C leg, which since I have a tough time considering this one leg C and drawing the pattern is quite subjective, I wouldn’t actually look at this set up because anything could happen still. IDK Jong??
Gonna post one of my own projections. USDJPY has three options, either (1) bounce off previous support level, (2) form Gartley, or (3) form a butterfly. I suppose we could even go to the extent of projecting a crab but I’m not going to because I see it most likely that it will either bounce now or form a Gartley.
What do you think???
What I would like to see more of this thread is completed patterns. It would be very beneficial to those that are learning this method of trading. Here is one that occurred earlier today that I think is PERFECT.
AUD/USD 30min
Good find! It seems that you are learning very well. I posted about this in the previous page at http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/21934-30-pips-day-keeps-your-money-bay-645.html#post371375
I’d wait until C forms and it is on its way to D; otherwise, we’re simply drawing triangles sporadically. I thoroughly enjoy having multiple perspectives on these patterns, by the way. Having more than one set of eyes highly increases the chances we’ll find ‘good’ patterns and be more profitable.
I unfortunately missed the completion of a pattern by one 4-hour candle on this current pair. If you look at the 4-hour chart from a more distant perspective, and start the X at Jun 1 low, you will see a beautiful pattern that completes at the 100% expansion.
GBP/CAD 1 hour
I dont necessarily enjoy how price has moved wildly against our patterns; completion. Otherwise, it is a great set up.
Before I head to class, I want to share one of the trades that I am currently doing.
This help reconfirm the movement of the 4 hour chart.
USD/CAD 30 min
GUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYS
THis is the best set up I"ve had yet trading patterns. I hope this works!! Classifies as a perfect bearish butterfly I believe…
got so excited i burnt my dinner.
Check out the 1 day dojo (of course that’s just right now but…)!!!
Note: Satisfies the harmonic time requirements, when it lands exactly on 0.382 or 0.618, or 0.1 we know it’s quite harmonic.