When trading the news in today’s environment, you have to look at a few other factors besides whether or not the data is positive or negative for the currency you are watching.
What are the expectations and is it priced into the market already?
Many times the market prices in expected data outcomes. Therefore we often have “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” scenarios play out. For instance, if data is expected to be weak for the US Dollar, traders may begin selling a few days or weeks ahead of a major economic data point. Once the data is released as expected, traders take profit by buying the currency - a move that goes against the logic of how price action play out. Also, if there is an outliers in the data read (like the huge job loss on Friday), that’s when we may see extreme volatility and fast market action.
What is the current environment and what are traders placing emphasis on when placing bets in a certain direction? In other words, what’s more important to traders at that moment? Is it fundamentals, sentiment, or technicals? Maybe a combination.
Example, in this current environment, risk aversion sentiment has been the dominant price action influence. On Friday, we saw horrendous Jobs report and USD immediately rallied against EUR, GBP, AUD, but sell off against JPY and CHF. This is risk aversion price action at work indicating traders were focused on weak global economy and not the US Dollar fundamentals. Then we saw USD/JPY rally along with other classic carry trade pairs and higher yielding currencies against the US Dollar. This is a sign that risk tolerance grew.
So, there’s more to after event price action than if the data was good or bad for the currency. Paying attention to these additional factors could help improve your odds of a successful trade.
I am going to use your 45 pips a day system sounds great but the macd in my metatrader platform has only one trend line nothing to cross is there something i am doing wrong thanks.
Take the time to read through this post, and somewhere in the first pages you will find an attached iMACD indicator that has two lines and the histogram.
To confirm a trend, add a 60 min EMA(EXPOTENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE). THEREFORE WHEN MACD CROSSES ABOVE 0. AND THE CURRENT PRICE ABOVE 60EMA THEN THE TREND IS A SURE LONG OR BUY AND THE OPPOSITE OCCURANCE IS FOR A SELL.
Hi, guys, I’ve traded this great system live for about 2 months and have realized that even when it fails it is a signal for a major reverse trend so what I’ve been doing is setting an opposite order 5 pips below the low of the candle of the first PSAR. It has consistently made my losses back and then given some profit as well. Thanks James for a great system… Maybe the “Holy Grail”, however I’m still trying to find more pairs that accept this system… any input guys?
Hello Nocanda2, good to hear that someone is doing well with this system.There hasn’t been much activity on this blog lately, could you tell us a bit more about how this system signals a trend reversal? Are you saying everytime it doesnt work it means there is a major trend reversal and not just a temporary swing in the other direction, if so I can’t see it… Do you set the hedge position each time you trade? Would be grateful to hear more about your system.
Turns out that after I posted that reply I had a trade that broke the rule, i.e. it stopped out but did not continue and instead kept moving in the direction of the trade, however this is the first time so let’s see…the 60 EMA seems like a credible filter. Also I’ve tried to attach a picture of the failed trade. The red arrow marks the entry candle and my target is 40pips.
I have been testing this system out using using the daily chart.
I am using 23 currency pairs. I take my profit at 30 to 40 pips per trade - nothing more! Why? Because that is more than enough =D Looking at the chart history, 100-300 pips is possible per trade.
I receive 1-3 signals per day with all 23 currency pairs combined. Their may be some days where I recieve no signals but with a system that is almost 100% - I cant complain =)