AceTraderFx Aug 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 08 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1601
Although yesterday’s expected rebound to 1.1608 signals recent decline has made a temp. low at Mon’s 1-month trough at 1.1530, as long as res area at 1.1621/32 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for another retreat but below 1.1530 needed to head towards June’s 11-month bottom at 1.1509.
A daily close above 1.1632 would risk stronger retracement of recent fall from 1.1791 to 1.1690/00 later this week.
No euro area eco. data is due out today, so funds flow will have a strong influence on intra-day price move.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 10 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1531
Despite yesterday’s initial intra-day sideways swings, euro’s selloff in New York session due to renewed usd’s strength and then subsequent break of Monday’s 1-month low at 1.1530 to 1.1517 today suggests re-test of June’s 11-month bottom is on the cards where a break of 1.1500 level would extend Medium Term downtrend towards 1.1448 target early next week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1573 signals temporary low is made and risks 1.1610/20.
[B]Data to be released on Friday :[/B]
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales, Japan corporate goods price, GDP, tertiary industry index, France industrial output, .
Italy trade balance, global trade balance, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance.
U.S. CPI, core CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate.
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 13 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1378
Euro’s initial breach below Friday’s 1.1388 low to a 13-month trough at 1.1368 (New Zealand) due to renewed fall in the Turkish lira to fresh record lows suggests Medium Term downtrend would head to 1.1310/20 after consolidation, oversold condition is likely to prevent steep drop and risk has increased for a correction to occur.
A move above 1.1428 signals temp. bottom is made and yield stronger recovery, however, reckon 1.1481 should cap upside and yield another fall later today or tomorrow.
On the eco. data front, Italy is the only euro area country releasing July CPI, so all eyes are on the TRY during European morning.
AceTraderFx Aug 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 15 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1342
Despite yesterday’s rebound to 1.1429 in European morning due to sharp recovery in the Turkish lira, subsequent decline in New York on renewed usd’s strength and then break of Mon’s 1.1365 low to a fresh 13-month trough at 1.1330 suggests recent downtrend would head to 1.1300 after consolidation, near term loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1270/75.
Only above 1.1380/85 (previous sup, now res) signals temporary low is in place, then risk is seen for another corrective rise to 1.1429/33.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries as many financial centres are closed for Assumption Day holiday.
AceTraderFx Aug 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 16 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1348
Although euro’s rebound from Wed’s fresh 13-month trough at 1.1301 to 1.1355 on short covering in New York session suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and consolidation is in store, outlook remains mildly bearish for marginal weakness below 1.1300’ loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1270/75.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1365 would risk stronger correction to 1.1400, then later to 1.1429/33 before prospect of another fall next week.
[B]Data to be released on Thursday : [/B]
Germany wholesale price index, UK retail sales, EU trade balance.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, and Canada manufacturing sales, ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx Aug 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 17 Aug 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1375
Euro’s intra-day retreat from 1.1409 to 1.1348 in New York suggests first leg of correction from Wed’s fresh 13-month bottom at 1.1301 has ended and sideways swings are in store before marginal gain towards res at 1.1433 but 1.1481 should cap upside.
Only a daily close below 1.1348 signals retracement is over and yields one more fall, however, ‘loss of downward momentum’ should limit weakness to 1.1270.
On the data front, the EU will release current account and then HICP and core HICP during European morning.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 20 Aug 2018[/B] [I]6:00 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1432
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Wednesday’s 13-month bottom at 1.1301 to 1.1445 on short covering Friday, near term o/bot condition should cap price below 1.1481 and yield retreat, below 1.1375 would be the 1st signal correction is over and bring subsequent weakness towards 1.3348.
Only a daily close above 1.1481 would risk stronger retracement of Medium Term downtrend to 1.1500/09 before prospect of decline.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with July PPI, then Monthly Bundesbank report n EU will release construction production data. Later at 16:00GMT, Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council Board member Jens Weidmann will deliver a speech in Frankfurt.
AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 21 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1520
Euro’s impressive rally to 1.1485 in New York afternoon due to Trump’s usd-negative comments, then intra-day ‘jump’ above 1.1500 to 1.1542 confirms Medium Term downtrend has made a low at last week’s 13-month trough at 1.1301 and expect consolidation before extending aforesaid rise to 1.1470/75, o/bot condition should cap price below key res at 1.1628.
On the downside, only below 1.1485 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1445 before prospect of rebound.
[B]
Data to be released on Tuesday : [/B]
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI ind. trends survey, New Zealand GDT price index, Canada wholesales, and U.S. Redbook sales.
AceTraderFx Aug 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 22 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1575
Euro’s impressive rally to 1.1542 initially in Asia yesterday (now sup) and then subsequent gain to an 11-day high of 1.1600 in New York suggests recent strong rise from August’s 13-month bottom at 1.1301 would head to next daily obj. at 1.1628.
However, o/bot condition would limit upside to 1.1650/60.
On the downside, only below 1.1542 signals aforesaid rise has made a temporary top and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1500 before prospect of rebound later this week.
No economic data is due out from the euro area countries, so technical trading is likely to have stronger influence on intra-day price swings until New York open.
AceTraderFx Aug 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 24 Aug 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1545
Yesterday’s break below 1.1553 sup to 1.1530 (New York) due to usd’s broad-based strength suggests euro’s recent impressive rally from last Wednesday’s 13-month bottom at 1.1301 has made a temp. top at 1.1623 (Wednesday) and consolidation with near term downside bias remains for weakness towards 1.1300 before prospect of rebound.
However, only above 1.1600 would head to 1.1623/28, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1660/70.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1493 would risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise towards 1.1445.
[B]Data to be released on Friday : [/B]
New Zealand imports, exports, trade balances, Japan national CPI, Germany GDP, France consumer confidence, UK BBA mortgage approvals, and U.S. durable goods. The annual Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 27 Aug 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1627
Despite euro’s rally in NY on Fri to a 3-week high of 1.1640 after Fed J. Powell’s prepared Jackson Hole speech, then initial gain to 1.1654 ahead of Asian open, loss of upward momentum is expected to limit upside to 1.1670/80 and risk has increased for a much-needed retracement of recent upmove to occur later today.
On the downside, a firm break of 1.1600 would signal temporary top is in place and yield stronger pullback to 1.1555 but reckon sup at 1.1530 would remain intact.
[B]Data front:[/B] Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
And U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.
AceTraderFx Jul 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 28 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1691
Although euro’s resumption of recent upmove to a near 4-week high of 1.1693 (New York) due to broad-based usd’s weakness as easing of trade tensions had boosted risk appetite suggests marginal gain would be seen after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1700 (August’s high) and bring a much-needed minor correction later today.
Below 1.1640/50 (prev. res, now sup) anytime signals temporary top is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.1590/94.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France’s consumer confidence, then Italy’s bus confidence, consumer confidence and PPI.
Pay attention to speech by ECB Chief Economist Praet which will participate in a panel on “monetary and macroprudential policy interactions” at a congress in Germany at 11:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1686
Despite euro’s expected resumption of recent strong upmove to a fresh 4-week high of 1.1734 in NY, subsequent retreat due to broad-based usd’s rebound following upbeat U.S. consumer confidence and rising yields suggests temp. top has been made n below 1.1663 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1620/30.
Only above 1.1734 risks marginal gain twd 1.1750, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below key res
at 1.1791.
Data to release on Wednesday :
France consumer spending, GDP, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. Gfk consumer sentiment, MBA mortgage applications, GDP, PCE, pending home sales, and Canada current account.
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AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 30 Aug 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1704
Despite yesterday’s decline to 1.1652 ahead of NY open due to renewed weakness in the Turkish lira in European morning, subsequent strong bounce to 1.1710 led by intra-day ‘jump’ in sterling suggests pullback from Tuesday’s 4-week high at 1.1734 has ended and gain to 1.1750 may be seen after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap euro below key res at 1.1791 this week.
Below 1.1652 anytime would bring stronger retracement of recent rise from 1.1301 towards 1.1594.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI section for details. There is a business conference in Frankfurt where many financial heavy weights will attend n Brexit is one of the topics of discussions, so pay attention for any comments made by the participants later. Also, Bundesbank President Weidmann will be delivering a speech in Athens at 17:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Aug 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 31 Aug 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1672
Euro’s decline to 1.1642 yesterday due to continued weakness in the Turkish lira confirms recent strong upmove has made a temporary top at Tuesday’s fresh 4-week high at 1.1734 and despite subsequent recovery in New York afternoon on short covering, consolidation with downside bias remains for said erratic fall to head towards 1.1594, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1555.
On the upside, only above 1.1718 would risk re-test of 1.1734, then marginal gain to next daily chart obj. at 1.1750 before correction occurs on Mon due to loss of upward momentum.
[B]Data out later on Friday : [/B]
UK Gfk consumer sentiment, France CPI, producer prices, Italy unemployment, consumer price, CPI, GDP, EU HICP.
U.S. producer prices, Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer sentiment index, and Canada budget balance.
AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 03 Sept 2018[/B] [I]06:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1592
Friday’s expected resumption of decline from Tuesday’s fresh 4-week peak of 1.1734 to a 1-week trough of 1.1585 as renewed global trade tensions had supported the greenback in New York suggests said move to retrace recent upmove from 1.1301 (August low) would head to daily downside objective at 1.1560/70, oversold condition should keep price above sup at 1.1530 today.
On the upside, only above 1.1642 signals 1st leg of retracement is over and may risk stronger gain to 1.1680/90 b4 prospect of another fall later this week.
[B]Data out on Monday: [/B]
New Zealand terms of trade, import, export, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, business capex, Australia retail sales, business inventories, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Swiss manufacturing PMI, retails sales, Italy Markit Manufacturing PMI, France Markit Manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI, EU Markit Manufacturing PMI, and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI.
U.S. and Canada markets are closed for holiday.
AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 04 Sept 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1610
Although yesterday’s recovery to 1.1628 following decline last week from 1.1734 to 1.1585 (Friday) suggests said move has made a minor low and initial consolidation is in store, outlook remains bearish for further fall, however, near term loss of momentum should keep price above sup at 1.1530 and bring rebound.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1642 (previous sup, now res) may risk stronger retracement to 1.1680/90 before prospect of another leg of decline later this week.
The eco. calendar is pretty thin today with Jul PPI being the only release from the EU. ECB board member Nowotny will speak at an exhibition opening in Vienna later today at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 05 Sept 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1585
Despite yesterday’s anticipated resumption of decline from last Tuesday’s fresh 4-week peak of 1.1734 to an 11-day low of 1.1530 in New York, subsequent cable-led rebound due to short covering suggests temporary low is possibly made and range trading with upside bias is in store, above 1.1600 would bring stronger gain but reckon 1.1642 (previous up, now res) may hold on 1st testing.
Only below 1.1530 risks marginal weakness, however, ‘loss of momentum’ should limit weakness to 1.1495/00 and bring strong rebound ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
Today is services PMI day in the euro area countries with Italy starting off with Markit services PMI for August, then the same from France, Germany followed by the EU’s retail sales. ECB Board member Praet will speak at Eurofi Financial Forum in Vienna at 08:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 06 Sept 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1643
Euro’s anticipated rebound yesterday to 1.1640 (New York), then intra-day gain to 1.1659 due to renewed usd’s weakness suggests early correction from August’s 1.1734 peak has ended at 1.1530 (Tuesday) and consolidation with upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1690, near term o/bot condition should cap price well below 1.1734.
On the downside, only below 1.1600/10 prolongs choppy sideways swings, risks weakness to 1.1560/70 but 1.1530 should remain intact.
[B]Data to be released later on Thursday : [/B]
Swiss GDP, Germany industrial orders, U.S. ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, Markit services PMI, durable goods, ISM non- manufacturing PMI, factory orders.
AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 07 Sept 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1620
Although yesterday’s initial marginal gain to 1.1659 at Asian open signals euro’s early correction from August’s peak at 1.1734 has ended at 1.1530 (Tuesay), subsequent choppy swings in New York session suggest range trading is in store before prospect of further headway towards 1.1690.
On the downside, only below 1.1585 (upbeat U.S. NFP perhaps) would risk stronger retreat but reckon 1.1530 should remain intact and yield further volatile trading.
Ahead of key U.S. jobs report, the euro area countries will release Germany’s industrial output, import, exports and current account, then similar trade data from France, Italy’s retail sales and EU’s GDP. Eurogroup wil meet today and Euro FinMins will hold a press conference at 10:00GMT.