AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 10 Sept 2018[/B] [I]06:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1555
Friday’s intra-day selloff from 1.1649 (Europe) to as low as 1.1551 in NY due to renewed usd’s broad-based rally after robust U.S. jobs data suggests early correction from 1.1530 (Tuesday) has ended at 1.1659 and recent decline would head towards 1.1490/95 after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1466.
On the upside, only above 1.1606 signals low is made and may risk another rise back towards 1.1649 later.
The euro area eco. calendar is very thin today with the EU’s Sentix investor confidence for September at 08:30GMT being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1591
Yesterday’s rebound from a fresh 2-week low of 1.1526 (Europe) and then intra-day ‘sterling-led’ rally to 1.1616 in New York morning suggests euro’s recent decline from August’s 1.1734 peak has made a temp. low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1649/59 res, break there would encourage for subsequent headway towards 1.1690.
Only below 1.1564 dampens present bullish scenario on euro, however, reckon 1.1526/30 sup would remain intact.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France’s non-farm payrolls, Germany’s ZEW eco. sentiment and current conditions and EU’s ZEW eco. sentiment.
AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1637
Yesterday’s rally in NY session on broad-based usd’s weakness due to market hopes of U.S./China trade talk suggests early correction from August’s 1.1734 peak has ended at Tuesday’s 2-1/2 week trough at 1.1526 and upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1690 after consolidation.
On the downside, only below 1.1565/70 sup, possibly on dovish ECB Draghi’s comments at today’s post-ECB press conference, suggests correction over and risks weakness to 1.1526/30.
Ahead of ECB’s rate decision, we have Germany’s final CPI data and the same from France.
AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1690
Euro’s impressive rise from 1.1609 (Europe) to 1.1701 yesterday’s due to rally in the Turkish lira as well as soft U.S. CPI data suggests re-test of August’s 1.1734 peak would be forthcoming soon after minor consolidation in Asia.
However, loss of momentum should cap price below July’s high at 1.1791.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1659 (last week’s top, now sup) confirms temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1609.
On the data front, Italy will release CPI, then EU’s trade balance and labour costs.
We also have 2 ECB officials delivering speeches during European morning starting ECB Smets in Brussels at 07:00GMT and ECB’s Nowotny in Vienna at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1674
Yesterday’s rally from 1.1618 (Europe) to 1.1698 in NY due to renewed usd’s weakness suggests pullback from Friday’s 4-week high at 1.1722 has ended and re-test of August’s peak at 1.1734 is likely after consolidation, break would extend recent upmove to 1.1750/60 later.
Intra-day retreat after Trump announced more trade tariffs on China would bring sideways trading before up and only below 1.1618 shift risks to downside for stronger retracement to 1.1565/70.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia house price index, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK DCLG house price index, New Zealand GDT price index.
Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. redbook, NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1666
Despite Tuesday’s resumption of recent erratic upmove to a 2-week high of 1.1724 in New York, failure to re-test Aug’s peak at 1.1734 and subsequent decline to 1.1652 suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with initial downside bias is in store, as long as sup at 1.1618 holds, gain to 1.1734 is still envisaged, then 1.1750.
A daily close below 1.1718 would shift risk to the downside for subsequent weakness towards 1.1565/70.
Data to release on Wednesday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, BoJ interest rate decision.
EU current account, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, EU construction output.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, current account, building permits, housing starts.
AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1679
Yesterday’s decline from 1.1715 (Europe) to 1.1651 in New York suggests further ‘choppy’ sideways swings below Tuesday’s near 3-week high at 1.1724 would continue with downside bias, below 1.1651 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1618 before prospect of another rebound.
Only above 1.1734 (August peak) would extend Medium Term upmove to 1.1750/55, then towards 1.1791 next week.
On the data front, the only data due out today is EU’s September consumer confidence due out at 14:00GMT.
Today is the second day of the 2-day EU summit meeting in Salzburg in Austria. ECB Board member Weidmann will speak in Germany at 15:15GMT and then ECB Chief Economist Praet will speak in New York at 17:20GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1782
Yesterday’s break of Aug’s 1.1734 high (now sup) to a 2-month peak of 1.1785 in New York due to renewed usd’s weakness (except vs yen) suggests price would head to 1.1815/25 after consolidation, overbought condition is expected to cap euro below 1.1852 (June’s high) and risk has increased for a correction to take place later.
Only a daily close below 1.1734 confirms temp. top is made, then stronger retracement to 1.1665/70 would be seen.
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan national CPI, Nikkei manufacturing PMI, France GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
Canada CPI, retail sales, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1747
Despite continuing its recent winning streak to a fresh 3-month peak of 1.1803 in Europe, as intra-day selloff in sterling has led to broad-based usd’s strength in New York morning and knocked price to 1.1733, suggesting recent upmove has made a temporary top and 1-2 days of consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1733 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1590/00.
Only above 1.1803 would extend marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below key daily res at 1.1852 today and yield correction.
Pay attention to release of key German Ifo business climate and current conditions data, if bussiness sentiment forecast comes in weaker than forecast (103.2 vs previous reading of 103.80), euro will come another round of selling or long liquidation.
AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2018 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1764
Despite yesterday’s intra-day erratic rise from 1.1732 (Asia) to 1.1793 in New York morning, subsequent retreat in New York afternoon due to broad-based usd’s rebound suggests choppy trading below Monday’s 3-month peak at 1.1815 would continue ahead of FOMC rate decision, below 1.1724 would bring stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.1680/90.
On the upside, only above 1.1815 would extend recent rise towrds key daily res at 1.1852, however, loss of upward momentum suggests this res may hold on 1st testing.
On the data front, the only eco. data due out from euro area countries is France’s consumer confidence.
Pay attention to speech by ECB’s Mersh and Smets at a conference in Brussels at 07:00GMT, then ECB’s Draghi will appear at a ceremony with a short speech in Berlin at 12:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1754
Despite yesterday’s brief jump to 1.1798 after Fed’s expected rate hike, subsequent retreat in post-FOMC New York suggests choppy trading below Mon’s 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 would continue, below 1.1724/26 sup would confirm recent upmove has made a temporary top and bring stronger retracement to 1.1690 but sup at 1.1651 should hold.
On the upside, above 1.1815 would extend Medium Term rise from 1.1301 (August low) towards key daily res at 1.1852 should which hold on 1st testing due to loss of upward momentum.
ON the eco. data front, Itay will kick off with business and consumer confidence, EU’s economic bulletin, Italy’s PPI, EU’s bus climate, eco. sentiment. industrial n services sentiment n consumer confidence, then Germany’s SPI n HICP.
We also have a number of ECB officials speaking, pls refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Sept 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1641
Yesterday’s anticipated break of previous 1.1724/26 sup (now res) to a 9-day low of 1.1639 (New York), then 1.133 today confirms euro’s early upmove from August’s 13-month bottom at 1.1301 has made a top at Mon’s 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 and downside bias remains for further further weakness after consolidation, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1565/70 and bring rebound next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1685 signals at least the 1st leg of correction is over and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1724.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty heavy on this last trading day in September, please refer to our EI section for details.
Also we have ECB’s Lane speaking at 11:30GMT in London and then ECB’s Chief Economist Praet at 12:35GMT in Frankfurt.
AceTraderFx Oct 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1576
Yesterday’s resumption of decline from last Monday’s 3-1/2 month peak of 1.1815 to a 2-1/2 week low at 1.1564 suggests marginal weakness would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above key sup at 1.1526 (September’s bottom) and bring a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1629 signals temporary low is made and yield stronger gain to 1.1651, however, reckon 1.1685 would cap upside.
The euro countries’ eco. calendar is pretty light with EU PPI being the only data due out. However, we have ECB Galhau speaking in Paris at 14:30GMT.
There is EU Eco. and Financial Affairs Council meeting (ECOFIN) today which starts at 09:00GMT and ECB VP de Guindos will participate.
AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1547
Despite yesterday’s initial selloff to a 6-week trough of 1.1505 due to continued market concerns on Italian budget deficit, subsequent rebound to 1.1570 in New York on short covering suggests range trading is in store before recent decline from September’s 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 heads to 1.1475/80, loss of momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1452.
Only a daily close above 1.1600 signals temp. low is made, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement to 1.2623/28, then 1.1651.
Offers are tipped at 1.1570/80 with stops above 1.1600.
Bids are noted at 1.1525-15 with stops below 1.1500.
Today is PMI day in the euro zone, Italy wlll lick off with Marlit services PMI, then the same from France and Germany, then EU retail sales. Markets in Germany are on holiday.
We have ECB’s Mersch speaking in Riga at 06:20GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1472
Although euro jumped in Asian morning from 1.1536 to 1.1594 on Italian budget cut news yesterday, subsequent retreat in Europe on broad-based euro selling and then selloff to a fresh 6-week low of 1.1465 on usd’s rally in New York suggests recent down trend would head to 1.1420, oversold condition should prevent steep fall.
On the upside, only above 1.1536 indicates temp. low is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1594 before another fall.
Data due to release late on Thursday:
U.S. initial jobless claims, durable goods, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1510
Despite extending recent decline to a fresh 6-week trough of 1.1464 initially in Asia yesterday, intra-day cable-led rebound in European morning, then subsequent rally to 1.1543 in New York morning suggests temporary low has been made and choppy sideways swings with upside bias is seen ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data.
As long as 1.1480/90 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1570 is envisaged, however, reckon res at 1.1594 should cap present rebound.
Below 1.1480 would yield marginal weakness, however, ‘loss of downward momentum’ would limit downside to 1.1420/30 today.
Ahead of U.S. payrolls data, euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data during European morning, pls refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1525
Despite intra-day wild swings following release of downbeat U.S. jobs report, euro’s brief jump to 1.1550 in New York morning suggests recent decline from 1.1815 (September’s high) has made a temporary low at last Thursday’s 6-week trough at 1.1464 and upside bias remains for further gain after consolidation.
However, reckon previous res at 1.1594 should cap present rise.
On the downside, only a firm break of 1.1484 (New York low) signals correction is over and yields one more fall to 1.1430/40 before prospect of a stronger retracement.
On the eco. dat front, Germany will kick off with industrial production for Aug n then followed by EU’s Sentix investor confidence index. ECB Board member Nowotny will be speaking at an event in Vienna at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1490
Despite euro’s intra-day selloff in European morning due to active selling of euro on lingering Italian budget deficit concerns and then brief break of last week’s 1.1464 low to a 7-week trough of 1.1460, lack of follow-through selling and subsequent bounce to 1.1499 in holiday-thinned North American session suggests temp. low is possibly made, above 1.1500/10 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1550 before retreat.
Only below 1.1460 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1410/15 today.
Data due out later on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada housing starts, and U.S. NFIB business optimism.
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1507
Despite yesterday’s resumption of recent erratic decline from August’s peak at 1.1815 to a fresh 7-week trough of 1.1432 ahead of New York open, subsequent rally to 1.1503 due to broad-based usd’s weakness triggered by sharp retreat in U.S. Treasury yields suggests temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias is seen for stronger retracement towrds 1.1550 before prospect of another fall later this week.
On the downside, a firm break below 1.1460/64 sup would be the 1st signal correction is over, then risk is seen for one more fall to 1.1410/15 before correction occurs.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty light today, France will release indusrial production and then Italy’s inustrial output. ECB Board member Mersh will speak at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1538
Yesterday’s anticipated rise to 1.1545 confirms euro’s early decline from September’s 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 has made a temporary low at Tuesday’s fresh 7-week trough at 1.1432 and consolidation with upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1594 res before prospect of retreat due to near term overbought condition.
Only a daily close below 1.1480 signals said correction has ended, then risk is seen for weakness to 1.1460/64, then re-test of 1.1432 next week.
The G20 FinMins n cenbank governors are in Bali, Indonesia for a 2-day meeting, keep an eye out on comments by G20 officials.