AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1552
Friday’s decline from 1.1610 to 1.1535 due to renewed market concerns of Italy’s budget deficit and Brexit talks suggests corrective rise from last week’s low at 1.1432 has made a top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1515, however, only a daily close below 1.1480 sup would bring re-test of 1.1432 later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1585 would suggest pullback is possibly over and risks gain towards 1.1610 but break there needed to extend said upmove towards 1.1629.
Although no eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, today is the deadline for Italy’s budget, so expect fireworks if Italy sticks to its high debt to GDP budget plan.
AceTraderFx Oct 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1585
Although yesterday’s rally in Europe due to broad-based usd’s weakness and then gain to session highs of 1.1606 in New York morning on downbeat U.S. retail sales suggests pullback from Fri’s 10-day high at 1.1610 has ended and recent upmove from last Tuesday’s 7-week trough at 1.1432 would extend marginal gain, ‘loss of upward momentum’ would cap euro below res at 1.1651.
On the downside, below 1.1535 (Fri low) signals correction from 1.1432 has ended and would yield weakness towards 1.1480 later this week.
Data to be released later on Tuesday:
Germany import price, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU norm), trade balance, UK ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, DCLG house price index, EU trade balance.
U.S. PCE, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, JOLTS job openings, NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1501
Yesterday’s anticipated break of 1.1515 sup to 1.1496 after hawkish Fed minutes suggests euro’s correction from October’s 7-week trough at 1.1432 has ended at 1.1621 (Tuesday) and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, oversold condition is likely to keep price above 1.1460 and risk has increased for a recovery.
On the upside, only above 1.1548 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1578/81 before down.
On the eco. data front, the only data due out is Germany’s wholesale price index. Also, today is the second of the 3-day EU summit meeting. ECB Preisent Draghi and Board member Coure will participate in the Euro Summit and ECB’s Nowotny will speak in Vienna at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1459
Euro’s anticipated decline to 1.1450 in New York yesterday due to renewed usd’s strength and continued Italian budget concerns suggests re-test of October’s 7-week trough at 1.1432 would be forthcoming soon, break there would extend recent decline from September’s peak at 1.1815 to 1.1395/00 before prospect of correction.
On the upside, only above 1.1527 defers present bearish scenario on the single currency and may risk stronger gain to 1.1548, possibly 1.1578/81.
The only eco. data due out is EU’s current account. Today is the final day of the 3-day euro summit meeting, so pay attention to intra-day comments by EU officials.
Yesterday’s positive comments made by ECB’s Draghi briefly lifted euro from 1.1487 to 1.1517.
AceTraderFx Oct 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1463
Despite euro’s rally from Friday’s 1.1433 low to 1.1535, then initial gain to 1.1550 in Europe on Monday, subsequent selloff to as low as 1.1456 on uncertainty over Italy’s budget deficit suggests re-test of October’s fresh 7-week trough at 1.1432 would be seen after consolidation.
However, loss of downward momentum is likely to limit weakness to 1.1395/00.
On the upside, only a move back above 1.1500 would prolong choppy sideways swings above 1.1432 and may risk another rise back to 1.1535, then 1.1550.
On the data front, the only data due out from the euro area countries in the morning is Germany’s PPIn then EU;s consumer confidence later at 14:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1471
Yesterday’s weakness to 1.1439 (Europe) suggests correction from last week’s 1.1433 low (Friday) has ended at 1.1550 and subsequent rebound to 1.1494 in New York would bring sideways swings initially today before re-test of October’s bottom at 1.1432, break would extend recent decline towards 1.1395.
Only above 1.1500 prolongs choppy trading above 1.1432/33 and risks another rise to 1.1578/81.
Data to be released later on Wednesday :
Japan manufacturing PMI, leading economic index, coincident index, France business climate, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, UK mortgage approvals.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, monthly home price, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, new home sales and Canada BoC rate decision.
AceTraderFx Oct 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1365
Despite euro’s ‘anticipated’ resumption of recent decline after intra-day brief bounce to prev. sup (now res) at 1.1432 in post-ECB presser and hit a fresh 2-month trough at 1.1356, near term loss of momentum is likely to keep price above key 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301 (August) today and risk has increased for a correction to take place next week.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1432 confirms temporary trough has been made and price would head back towards 1.1494.
On the data front ahead of U.S. GDP, France will release PPI n consumer confidence.
ECB’s Draghi will deliver a keynote speech om “Understanding inflation dynamics” at the end of a financial conference in Brussels at 14:00GMT n ECB Board member Coeure will speak in Paris at 14:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1394
Despite euro’s anticipated resumption of recent decline to a 10-week low of 1.1336 ahead of New York open on Friday, failure to re-test 2018 bottom at 1.1301 (AUG) and subsequent strong rebound to 1.1421 at New York close suggests temporary trough has been made and sideways swings are in store.
A daily close above 1.1432 res would bring stronger retracement to 1.1477 but 1.1494 should cap upside whilst below 1.1355 signals recovery over and yields weakness towards 1.1301.
The only eco. data due out from the euro area countries is Italy’s PPI for September.
AceTraderFx Oct 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Oct 2018 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1379
Although euro’s strong rebound from Fri’s 2-month trough of 1.1336 to 1.1421 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, yesterday’s sideways swings should ended with one more fall, loss of momentum would keep price above 2018 bottom at 1.1301.
Only a daily close above 1.1432 would risk stronger correction towards 1.1494 before prospect of retreat later this week.
The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data starting with France’s prel. Q3 GDP and consumer spending, Germany’s jobs data, Italy’s GDP, consumer confidence, EU’s prel. Q3 GDP, bus n eco. climate, industrial, services and consumer confidence and lastly in New York morning, Germany’s prel. CPI data.
There is also a no. of ECB offcials speaking today, please refer to EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Oct 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1341
Euro’s weakness to 1.1340 in New York Tuesday, then 1.1338 (Australia) today signals early correction from last Friday’s 2-month low at 1.1336 has ended on the same day and downside bias remains for decline towards 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301 (August) after consolidatiion, however, below there needed to retain bearishness for subsequent fall to 1.1240/50.
Expect 1.1388 to cap intra-day recover and yield another fall and only above 1.1400 may risk stronger gain to 1.1416/21 but reckon 1.1432 should cap upside.
Pay attention to a slew of euro area eco. data which is expected to move price around. Germany will kick off with retail sales, then France’s CPI n Italy’s unemployment. We also have some ECB officials speaking during European session, plrase refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Nov 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Nov 2018 05:20 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1397
Although euro’s rally from Wed’s 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1303 to as high as 1.1424 in New York yesterday due to usd’s broad-based usd’s strength suggests recent decline has made a low there and sideways swings are expected ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data, a daily close above previous res at 1.1432 needed to turn outlook bullish for stronger retracement towards 1.1494, then possibly to 1.1550 later next week.
On the downside, below 1.1350/60 signals rebound is over and risk would shift to downside for test of key 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301.
Data to be released later on Friday :
UK BRC retail sales, Markit construction PMI, Australia PPI, retail sales, Germany import prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, France budget balance, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, ISM New York index, durable goods, factory orders, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Nov 2018 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1397
Despite euro’s impressive rally from last Wednesday’s 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1303 to as high as 1.1456 (Europe) on Friday, subsequent strong retreat to 1.1373 in New York after upbeat U.S. jobs data suggests 1st leg of correction has ended and choppy consolidation is in store, as long as 1.1350/60 holds, upside bias remains for another bounce towards 1.1456 but break needed to retain bullishness for further headway towards 1.1494.
Only below 1.1336 signals said correction is over, then risk would shift to downside for weakness towards key sup at 1.1301 (2018 bottom in August).
The only eco. data due out fm the euro area countries is EU’s Sentix investors’ index. EU FinMins are meeting in Brussels today at 14:00GMT, ECB’s Coeure n Nouy will speak at Eurogroup meeting in meeting. Also, ECB VP de Guindos will soeak at a seminar at 13:00GMT. ECB’s de Guindos, Praet n Smets are scheduled to speak in Brussels later today too.
AceTraderFx Nov 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1412
Euro’s anticipated rebound from 1.1355 yesterday to 1.1424 in New York due to renewed usd’s weakness ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm election suggests pullback from Friday’s 1.1456 high has ended, above 1.1424 would bring re-test of said res.
However, a break there needed to retain bullishness and extend upmove from last Wednesday’s 2-1/2 month bottom towards 1.1494.
On the downside, below 1.1355 would shift risk to the downside and yield weakness towards 1.1336, however, strong sup at 1.1301/03 should remain intact.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. dat starting with Germany’s industrial irders, Italy’s Marleit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU together with RU’s PPI. There is an EU ECOFIN meeting in Brussels and a number of ECB officials will be speaking (refer to our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Nov 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Nov 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1444
Despite euro’s initial brief break of Fri’s 1.1456 top to a 2-week high of 1.1473 on news of U.S. Democrat’s lead in the House election, intra-day selloff to 1.1396 suggests early upmove from Oct’s 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1303 has possibly made a temporary top and choppy sideways swings are in store.
Below 1.1392/96 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1355/65 before rebound whilst above 1.1476 would extend said rise towards 1.1494 later today
Data to be released later on Wednesday :
Germany industrial output, UK Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales, EU retail sales, U.S. MBA mortgage application, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Nov 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1431
Euro’s decline from Wednesday’s 2-week high of 1.1550 (Europe) to 1.1424 in New York due to renewed usd’s strength on easing of market concern of a political gridlock in Washington suggests 1st leg of correction from October’s 2-1/2 month bottom at 1.1303 has ended and ‘choppy’ sideways swings are in store.
Expect 1.1392/95 sup to contain intra-day weakness but above 1.1473 is needed to re-test 1.1500. Only below 1.1373 risks stronger retacement towards 1.1336.
On the eco. data front, Germany will release import n export data, trade balance n current account, then the same set of trade data from France. The EU will release eco. bulletin as well as eco. growth forecasts. ECB’s Draghi will speak in Dublin at 15:20GMT and ECB Board members Coeure and Nowotny will also be speaking in Euroepan afternoon/New York morning.
AceTraderFx Nov 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1362
Euro’s intra-day selloff from 1.1447 (Europe) on Thursday to as low as 1.1352 after Fed’s hawkish hold suggests correction from October’s 1.1303 low has ended at 1.1500 on Wednesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards said sup but break of key 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301 (August) needed to retain bearishness for resumption of downtrend to 1.1240/50 next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1447 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings and may risk another rise back to 1.1470/80 but reckon 1.1500 would remain intact.
Eco calendar in the EZ is very light today with France’s industrial output being the only data due out. ECB Governing Council member Coeure will deliver a speech in Frankfurt at 10:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Nov 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1326
Fri’s weakness to 1.1316 due to continued usd’s strength following Fed’s hawkish hold on Thursday suggests re-test of 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301 (Aug) would be seen, below 1.1300 would encourage for resumption of Medium Term downtrend towards 1.1444 later this week.
Only above 1.1369 prolongs choppy sideways swings and risks another rise to 1.1392/95, however, reckon 1.1447 should remain intact.
Data to be released later :
France ILO unemployment, and Italy industrial output on Monday.
U.S. markets are closed for Veterans Day holiday and markets in Canada are also closed for Remembrance Day holiday.
AceTraderFx Nov 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Nov 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1304
Euro’s intra-day break above yesterday’s 1.1294 (New York) to 1.1320 in Australia suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary bottom at Monday’s 16-month bottom at 1.1216 and as long as 1.1253 (New York low) holds, stronger gain to 1.1332 is envisaged.
However, near term overbought condition should cap price at previous res area at 1.1360/69 and yield decline later today or tomorrow.
On the downside, below 1.1253 anytime signals correction is over, then euro will be en route towards next downside retracement target at 1.1187.
On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of data starting with Germany’s flash GDP, France’s final CPI, EU’s employment change, GDP and industrial production. ECB Board member Weidmann will deliver a speech on economic challenges in Berlin at 08:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1320
Although yesterday’s ‘cable’led’ rise to 1.1348 on Brexit deal optimism suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Monday’s 16-month trough at 1.1216, reckon previous res area at 1.1360/69 would cap present recovery and yield strong retreat later.
Below sup at 1.1253/63 signals said correction is over, then bearishness is seen for re-test of 1.1216.
On the eco. data front, EU will release second-tier trade balance. ECB’s Coeure will speak at a conference in Basel at 12:15GMT, then ECB Chief Economist Praet will speak in Brussels at 13:10GMT and ECB VP Guindos will speak in Amsterdam at 14:35GMT.
AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1341
Despite yesterday’s cable-led weakness to 1.1271 in Europe, subsequent rally to 1.1362 in New York due to cross-buying in euro esp. vs sterling suggests choppy trading above Mon’s 16-month bottom at 1.1216 would continue, as long as res at 1.1369 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains.
Below 1.1271 would encourage for weakness towards 1.1216 next week whilst a firm break above 1.1369 may risk stronger correction to 1.1400/04 and possibly towards 1.1447 next Monday.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data in Eurpean morning (please refer to EI section for details).
Pay attention to speech by ECB President Draghi at Frankfurt European Banking Congress at 08:30GMT, then ECB Board member Weidmann will speak at a conference in Frankfurt at 13:00GMT.