AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1408
Euro’s impressive rally above indicated res area at 1.1362/69 to as high as 1.1421 due to usd’s weakness in New York on Friday confirms Medium Term downtrend has made a low at last Monday’s 16-month bottom at 1.1216 and upside bias remains for gain to 1.1450/60, however, reckon daily res at 1.1500 should hold.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1369 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risks stronger retracement to 1.1310/20.
Data to be released later day :
New Zealand PPI, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, UK Rightmove house price, EU current account, construction output and U.S. NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Nov 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1449
Yesterday’s anticipated gain to 1.1465 in New York due to continued usd’s weakness suggests recent strong rise from Nov’s 16-month bottom at 1.1216 would head towards next daily chart obj. at 1.1500 after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1550.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1394 sup signals temporary top is made, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1369 but sup at 1.1321/22 should remain intact.
On the eco. data front, France will kick off with France’s unemployment and then Germany’s producer prices. e have a number of ECB officials speaking today (pls refer to our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Nov 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Nov 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1369
Despite yesterday’s resumption of recent rise from November’s 16-month trough at 1.1216 to 1.1472, subsequent selloff to as low as 1.1359 due initially to renewed market concerns on Italian budget and then usd’s broad-based strength in New York suggests 1st leg of correction over and would head to 1.1321/22, oversold condition should keep price above pivotal sup at 1.1271.
Expect 1.1421/23 to cap intra-day recovery and yield another fall and only above 1.1439/43 signals retracement from 1.1472 is over.
No eco. data is due out from the euro are countries, so all eyes are on the European Commission disciplinary report on Italy, so stay tuned.
AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1387
Euro’s decline from Tuesday’s 12-day high at 1.1472 to 1.1359 the same day suggests recent upmove from November’s 16-month bottom at 1.1216 has made a temporary top there and as price has retreated after yesterday’s recovery to 1.1425, downside bias remains for stronger retracement of said rise towards 1.1321, ‘loss of momentum’ should keep price well above pivotal sup at 1.1271.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1425 would signal pullback has ended, then risk is seen for a re-test of 1.1472 later.
The eco. calendar in the euro area countries is very light with France’s Nov business climate being the only data due out at 07:45GMT.
Pay attention to release of ECB minutes of last policy meeting at 12:30GMT. Also, a no. of ECB officials are scheduled to speak (please refer to our EI section for details) and their comments may well cause the euro to swing a bit.
AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1402
Euro’s decline from this week’s 1.1472 (Tue) high to 1.1359 suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and despite staging a rebound to 1.1434 in Europe yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.1359 would extend marginal weakness, loss of momentum should keep euro above 1.1321/22 sup.
Only a daily close above 1.1434 signals pullback over and risks re-test of 1.1472, then towards 1.1500 early next week.
Data out on Friday :
Japan market holiday, Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Germany GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy trade balance, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada CPI, retail sales, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
AceTraderFx Nov 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Nov 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1330
As yesterday’s intra-day roller-coaster moves ended with euro falling from 1.1384 (Europe) to 1.1324 near New York close following ECB Draghi’s mildly dovish comments in New York and usd’s renewed strength, suggesting erratic fall from last week’s 1.1472 high would pressure price to 1.1300, loss of momentum should keep euro above pivotal sup at 1.1271.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1384 signals correction is over and heads back towards 1.1434 later this week.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany’s import price index, France’s consumer confidence n PPI then Italy’s business n consumer confidence. We also have ECB Board members Nouy and Mersch speaking at 15:00GMT n 16:00GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx Nov 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Nov 2018 05:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1292
Although yesterday’s resumption of recent erratic decline to an 11-day trough of 1.1278 in New York and intra-day softness suggests intra-day downside bias remains for marginal fall after consolidation, lots of downward momentum should keep euro well above Nov’s 16-month bottom at 1.1216 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1344 would be the 1st signal decline from 1.1472 has made a low and would head towards 1.1384 later this week.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with Gfk consumer confidence, then France’s PPI n Italy’s OOI. We have a no of ECB officials speaking in Europea morning, pls refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Dec 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2018 05:20 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1339
Despite euro’s rally from last week’s 1.1267 low to 1.1402 (Thursday), subsequent weakness to 1.1305 on Friday suggests choppy sideways swings are likely to continue.
Intra-day retreat after initial higher open to 1.1368 on temp. ceasefire of US/China trade dispute would bring consolidation, above 1.1368 would encourage for a move back towards 1.1402 whilst below 1.1305 may risk weakness towards 1.1267.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, please refer to our EI section for details of eco. releases. The Eurogroup is meeting today where ECB’s Draghi n Coure will participate, also, euro FinMins are meeting in Brussels, so keep a eye n ears open for comments by the officials.
AceTraderFx Dec 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1354
Despite euro’s decline from 1.1402 to 1.1305 last week, subsequent erratic rise to 1.1380 (Europe) on Monday suggests choppy trading above 1.1267 would continue with upside bias, above 1.1380 would bring re-test of 1.1402 and break there would extend said rise towards 1.1432 later.
Only a daily close below 1.1305 signals correction over and risk would shift to downside for weakness towards 1.1257.
The eco. data calendar is pretty light today with France’s budget balance n then EU’s PPI being the only 2 data due out during European morning. The EU FinMins’ meeting starts at 08:00GMT today n ECB’s Vice President Gundos will particiapte in ECONFIN meetig.
AceTraderFx Dec 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1334
Although euro’s initial rally above 1.1402 res to a 10-day high of 1.1420 in Europe due to continued drop in U.S. yields suggests choppy trading above last week’s low at 1.1267 would continue, subsequent selloff to 1.1319 as usd caught a bid in New York on 3% decline in the Dow suggests choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, reckon 1.1267 sup should hold firm here.
On the upside, only above 1.1380 dampens intra-day bearishness and risk another rise to 1.1420, break, 1,1440/50.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG services index, GDP, Japan Markit services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
France current account, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. market holiday, Fed’s Beige Book, and Canada BoC interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Dec 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1348
Euro’s decline from Tuesday’s 10-day high at 1.1420 to as low as 1.1311 yesterday suggests early erratic rise from last week’s 1.1267 bottom has ended and although subsequent rebound in holiday-thinned North American trading would bring sideways swings in Asia, intra-day selloff in Asian stocks should prompt USD buying as safe-haven currency.
Below 1.1305/11 sup would pressure price towards 1.1267 and only above 1.1380/90 ‘prolongs’ choppy consolidation, risks another rise towards 1.1420 later.
Euro zone eco. calendar is pretty light today, Germany will release industrial orders n then we have France’s current account. There is a ECB General Council meeting at 08:00GMT so we may have some comments from ECB officials during the day.
AceTraderFx Dec 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1412
Friday’s intra-day erratic rise to a fresh 2-week high of 1.1423 due to usd’s broad-based weakness after downbeat U.S. NFP suggests consolidation with upside bias remains but above 1.1472 res needed to retain bullish prospect for early rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) to head to next daily obj. at 1.1500 later.
On the downside, only below near term good sup at 1.1359/60 signals temporary top is in place and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1320/30.
A government source said on Friday that the Italian ruling coalition aimed to send a revised budget to the EU on Wednesday.
AceTraderFx Dec 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1364
Despite extending last week’s upmove to a fresh 2-week high of 1.1443 initially in Asia on Monday, subsequent ‘cable-led’ selloff to as low as 1.1350 in New York partly due to renewed usd’s strength suggests recent erratic rise from 1.1267 has made a top there an stronger retracement to 1.1305/11 sup area can’t be ruled out before prospect of rebound due to near term oversold condition.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1400 suggests pullback is over and would head back towards 1.1443 but key res at 1.1472 should remain intact.
Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France’s non-farm payrolls, then EU’s Sentix economic sentiment. ECB Vice President Guindos will deliver a speech in Frankfurt, then ECB’s Angeloni.
AceTraderFx Dec 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1331
Yesterday’s anticipated decline from 1.1400 to as low as 1.1306 led by intra-day selloff in cable and then renewed usd’s strength in New York suggests recent erratic rise from 1.1267 has made a top at 1.1443 (Monday) and downside bias remains for weakness towards 1.1267, however, November’s 20-month trough at 1.1216 should continue to hold this week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1350 (Monday’s low, now res) would prolong choppy sideways swings, then risk is seen for another rebound towards 1.1400 but 1.1443 should cap upside.
Euro area eco. calendar is pretty light today with EU’s Oct industrial production being the only data due out. UK embattling PM Theresa May will meet with European Council President Donald Tusk in Brussels on Brexit agreement at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1369
Yesterday’s intra-day cable-led rebound in Europe, then subsequent gain to 1.1388 on positive Italy’s budget news suggests euro’s fall from 1.1443 (Mon) has made a low at 1.1306 Tuesday and choppy trading with upside bias is seen ahead of ECB’s rate decision and Draghi’s presser.
Above 1.1400 may head back towards 1.1443 buy previous daily res at 1.1472 should cap upside whilst below 1.1305/06 sup would shift risk to downside for subsequent weakness towards 1.1267.
Data out on Thursday :
New Zealand food price index, UK RICS housing price balance.
Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, Swiss producer/import price, SNB interest rate decision, EU ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision, EU summit on budget and Brexit.
U.S. import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Dec 2018 04:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1360
Despite euro’s initial gain to 1.1293 (Europe) yesterday following early decline from Mons 1.1443 high to 1.1306 (Tuesday), subsequent brief but sharp retreat to 1.1331 after mildly dovish forward guidance by ECB’s Draghi suggests choppy trading with downside bias remains, below 1.1305/06 sup needed to extend said fall towards next chart obj. at 1.1267.
On the upside, only above 1.1393/00 res would revive bullish prospect of another rise to 1.1430/40.
Today is PMI day in the euro area n EZ will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details.
Pay attention to EU officials’ comments as today is the second day of the 2-day EU summit on EU budget n Brexit. ECB’s Draghi will participate in the EC meeting in Brussels and ECB’s Angeloni will speak at a financial conference in Rome at 13:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1379
Although yesterday’s anticipated gain to a 1-week high of 1.1402 (Europe) suggests choppy trading inside recent broad range of 1.1267-1.1443 would continue with upside bias, subsequent retreat to 1.1350 in New York would bring sideways swings before up, loss of momentum would cap price below last week’s high at 1.1443 ahead of key Fed’s rate decision.
On the downside, below 1.1330/37 sup signals top is made and risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1300, break, 1.1270/75.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, current account, Australia Westpac leading index, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, all industry activity index, Germany producer prices, UK DCLG house price index, CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, EU construction output.
Canada CPI, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, current account, existing home sales, Fed interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1377
Although euro extended near term strong rise from last week’s low at 1.1370 to a one-week high of 1.1440 yesterday, subsequent decline in post-FOMC after expected Fed’s rate hike and less dovish statement suggests price would continue to ‘gyrate’ inside recent 1.1216-1.1472 broad range with downside bias, below 1.1300/10 needed to retain bearishness for weakness towards 1.1270 next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1440/43 res would revive bullish prospect of further gain towards key daily res at 1.1472.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand GDP, imports, trade balance, exports, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan BoJ interest rate decision.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy producer prices, EU current account, UK retail sales, CBI distributive trade, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases.
U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicator, and Canada average weekly earnings, wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1449
Yesterday’s break of daily res at 1.1472 to a 5-week high of 1.1486 confirms recent rise from Nov’s 16-month trough at 1.1216 has finally resumed and despite intra-day sharp retreat to 1.1403 on usd’s brief rebound due to selloff in U.S. stocks, subsequent rise back to 1.1485 signals said upmove would head to 1.1500 target ‘after’ choppy consolidation, however, reckon 1.1550 would remain intact.
Only a daily close below 1.1403 indicates temporary top is in place, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.1365, then 1.1337.
Data to be released on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, GDP, current account, PSNB, PSNCR, German GfK consumer sentiment, France business climate, consumer spending, producer prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, PCE, personal income, personal spending, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada GDP, retail sales, and EU consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1378
Euro’s selloff from 1.1475 (Europe) to as low as 1.1355 in New York session on Friday due to active safe & have usd and yen buying suggests recent erratic upmove has made a top at Thursday’s 5-week high at 1.1486 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.1330/35, oversold condition is likely to keep price above 1.1306/07 on this holiday-thinned Monday trading.
On the upside, only above 1.1400/10 signals pullback has possibly ended instead and may risk stronger gain to 1.1430/40 but 1.1486 top is expected to remain intact.
Data to be released today:
Japan market holiday and U.S. national activity index on Monday.